因子的持续和转折对我国盛夏降水预测效果的影响

由于影响我国盛夏（7—8月）降水异常的主要因子前期（或从冬季到夏季）不同的月际演变特征对其后降水异常的影响不同,所以针对影响因子的月际“持续异常”和“转折变化”对盛夏降水异常的预测方法也应该是不同的。本文以国家气候中心整理的78项月环流特征量指数和CPC/NOAA的30项指数为因子,设计了能够反映影响因子的月指数特征量“持续异常”和“转折变化”的两套影响因子库,用“滑动相关—逐步回归—集合分析”方法分别建立预测模型,改进预测方案,这样建立的统计预测模型重点考虑了前期影响因子不同的变化特征。用距平符号一致率（PSS）与空间距平相关系数（ACC）为指标,对比分析不同因子处理方案对我国160站盛夏（7—8月）降水预测效果的影响,结果显示：两种因子选择方案均具有一定的预测能力;相比之下,“转折变化”因子选取方案的预测效果更好;用单站交叉建模序列与实测序列的相关系数为指标,挑选其中相关系数更高的因子选取方案结果作为集合方案预测结果,集合方案的预测效果有进一步提高的潜力。     

郑州市两次不同背景下特大暴雨诊断分析

利用NCEP资料,根据降水实况分布及各物理量分层平面分布,每隔6 h对特大暴雨中心区所在经、纬向带各物理量场作经、纬向垂直剖面图,结合高空观测图对郑州市两次特大暴雨发生的大环流形势场、触发特大暴雨发生的各物理量场进行诊断分析。结果表明:1)连续性特大暴雨区出现在低空急流轴的前方,一方面是由于低空急流前方水平辐合较强,另一方面低空急流对暖湿空气的输送,使大气不稳定度加强;局地短时性特大暴雨过程主要是冷空气侵入使冷暖湿空气团在郑州上空交汇,其对流不稳定能量释放所致。2)辐合线对暖湿空气的抬升运动起到动力加强作用,是触发中尺度雨团的根源,也是特大暴雨产生的根源。3)连续性暴雨发生、发展时,高空的反气旋起主导作用;局地短时性暴雨发生时,中低空的气旋辐合起主导作用。4)短时性特大暴雨天气,前期有较强的不稳定层结;连续性暴雨天气刚发生时,其前期存在较强的不稳定层结,在暴雨连续发生过程中不一定有强不稳定层结。5)连续性暴雨需要较强的水汽输送带,局地短时性暴雨不要求有明显的水汽输送。     

Changes and continuity of wood-pastures in the lowland landscape in Czechia

The term wood-pastures is usually applied to areas with trees or other woody vegetation, scattered through a mainly grazed grassland area, and reflects one of the oldest land use types in Europe, which plays important ecological, agricultural and socio-cultural roles. However, a rapid decline in their area due to changes in land use and a lack of tree regeneration has recently been observed all over Europe, which has led to the necessity of a deeper understanding of their behaviour in relation to different factors via a detailed analysis of the history of the changes in their distribution over space and time. Despite the recent increase in the number of related studies, information on historic patterns of wood-pastures in many European locations, such as Czechia, remains incomplete. The goal of this study is to assess the habitat continuity of current wood-pastures and to analyse the land-use/land-cover changes of historical and current wood-pastures in lowlands and warm landscapes of hills and basins of Czechia. To achieve this, nine sites covering a total area of 98.6 km² were studied in Czechia. The situation on three time horizons (1820–1840s, the early 1950s and today) was analysed. The results have shown that almost all wood-pastures from the 1st half of the 19th century have now been lost and most of the currently existing ones were formed from the 1950s till today. Most wood-pastures, which were lost by the 1950s, were turned into open habitats, such as arable lands, and the ones lost from 1950 were turned into forest. New wood-pastures are mostly formed from open habitats, often in former military areas.     

面向过程的时空数据模型研究

根据近20年来时空数据模型的研究现状、存在问题及其原因剖析,以连续渐变地理实体的表达、组织和存储为研究对象,提出面向过程的时空数据模型。根据连续渐变地理实体的内在特性,将其分级抽象为过程对象系列,进一步探讨过程对象及过程对象间逻辑关系,并设计其UML模型结构及物理存储结构。通过抽象的过程对象隐式地记录地理实体动态变化机制,及自定义的过程对象存储表提供演变机制的函数接口模式,实现连续渐变地理实体的过程化组织、存储与动态分析。最后,以海洋数据的过程化组织与分析为例,构建时空过程模型原型系统(海洋过程对象—关系数据库系统与功能分析平台),验证和评价该模型的实用性。     

How well do indicator variograms capture the spatial connectivity of soil moisture?

Indicators are binary transforms of a variable and are 1 or 0, depending on whether the variable is above or below a threshold. Indicator variograms can be used for a similar range of geostatistical estimation techniques as standard variograms. However, they are more flexible as they allow different ranges for small and large values of a hydrological variable. Indicator geostatistics are also sometimes used to represent the connectivity of high values in spatial fields. Examples of connectivity are connected high values of hydraulic conductivity in aquifers, leading to preferential flow, and connected band-shaped saturation zones in catchments. However, to the authors' knowledge the ability of the indicator approach to capture connectivity has never been shown conclusively. Here we analyse indicator variograms of soil moisture in a small south-east Australian catchment and examine how well they can represent connectivity. The indicator variograms are derived from 13 soil moisture patterns, each consisting of 500–2000 point TDR (time domain reflectometry) measurements. Winter patterns are topographically organized with long, thin, highly connected lines of high soil moisture in the drainage lines. In summer the patterns are more random and there is no connectivity of high soil moisture values. The ranges of the 50^th and 90^th percentile indicator semivariograms are approximately 110 and 75 m, respectively, during winter, and 100 and 50 m, respectively, during summer. These ranges indicate that, compared with standard semivariograms, the indicator semivariograms provide additional information about the spatial pattern. However, since the ranges are similar in winter and in summer, the indicator semivariograms were not able to distinguish between connected and unconnected patterns. It is suggested that new statistical measures are needed for capturing connectivity explicitly. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

J-lay铺管作业力学分析

目前J-lay铺管法作为深水和超深水铺管的最适用方法广泛应用于深海油气开发。考虑J-lay铺管时管道几何非线性特征以及触地区边界效应,将J-lay铺管模型划分三构件进行力学分析:悬浮段、边界层段以及触地段。建立Orca Flex模型和引入Wang改进二构件模型,通过对比上述三种方法计算J-lay相应构型、轴力、弯矩和剪力分布,验证该三构件模型的可行性和考虑边界效应的必要性。基于Lamé公式计算管道横截面处轴向、径向以及环向应力,对比分析J-lay铺设管道应力分布特征。结果表明:该改进三构件模型能真实有效地模拟J-lay铺管过程中管道受力情况,特别是触地点附近弯矩和剪力变化情况,能为管道疲劳损伤分析提供理论基础。     

基于附有限制条件的多项式模型建立中国区域电离层模型

利用IGS站的实测数据,采用最小二乘多项式模型建立中国区域电离层延迟模型。由于该模型各时段间连续性不强,故对其附加时空域上的限制条件。结果表明,附有限制条件的多项式模型保证了模型的连续性,在一定程度上能更好地反映电离层随时间的变化特性。采用该模型,研究分析中国区域电离层的周日、季节变化特性。     

四川前兆钻孔应变观测数据质量影响因素分析

钻孔应变观测的目的是为地震预测及地震科学研究提供高质量的观测数据,台站钻孔应变观测受到不同外界因素干扰时,观测数据的完整率和观测数据内精度也会不同程度地受到影响,对各种干扰因素的认识、分析、排除,是提高观测数据质量最好、也是最有效的途径。     

双排抗滑桩上滑坡推力近似解析方法

双排抗滑桩是加固大型滑坡的常用工程措施之一,在实际工程设计计算中的关键环节在于简单且合理地确定作用于前后排桩上的滑坡推力。将抗滑桩受荷段前侧坡体视为水平向的温克勒（Winkler）地基,基于弹性地基梁模型,并充分考虑桩体受荷段与锚固段的变形连续性,通过迭代算法确定出后排抗滑桩受荷段前侧坡体抗力,进而可对排间坡体采用传递系数法计算出前排桩桩后滑坡推力,给出了相关的理论计算公式。通过室内模型试验验证了所提方法的合理性,并针对一大型基覆式滑坡实例,具体计算出了前后排桩上的设计滑坡推力荷载。所提计算方法可为实际工程的简化设计提供参考。     

一次连续性大暴雨成因及雷达回波特征分析

对１９９８年６月中旬发生在福建省北部地区的连续性大暴雨过程环流特征、影响系统、特殊地形条件作用,中尺度回波系统活动及小尺度强核回波对降水强度的贡献进行了综合分析,力求从雷达回波演变特征找出规律,以提高其短时预报能力。