Turbidite bed thickness distributions: methods and pitfalls of analysis and modelling

Turbidite bed thickness distributions are often interpreted in terms of power laws, even when there are significant departures from a single straight line on a log–log exceedence probability plot. Alternatively, these distributions have been described by a lognormal mixture model. Statistical methods used to analyse and distinguish the two models (power law and lognormal mixture) are presented here. In addition, the shortcomings of some frequently applied techniques are discussed, using a new data set from the Tarcău Sandstone of the East Carpathians, Romania, and published data from the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation of Italy. Log–log exceedence plots and least squares fitting by themselves are inappropriate tools for the analysis of bed thickness distributions; they must be accompanied by the assessment of other types of diagrams (cumulative probability, histogram of log‐transformed values, q–q plots) and the use of a measure of goodness‐of‐fit other than R², such as the chi‐square or the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. When interpreting data that do not follow a single straight line on a log–log exceedence plot, it is important to take into account that ‘segmented’ power laws are not simple mixtures of power law populations with arbitrary parameters. Although a simple model of flow confinement does result in segmented plots at the centre of a basin, the segmented shape of the exceedence curve breaks down as the sampling location moves away from the basin centre. The lognormal mixture model is a sedimentologically intuitive alternative to the power law distribution. The expectation–maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters and thus to model lognormal bed thickness mixtures. Taking into account these observations, the bed thickness data from the Tarcău Sandstone are best described by a lognormal mixture model with two components. Compared with the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation, in which bed thicknesses of thin beds have a larger variability than thicknesses of the thicker beds, the thinner‐bedded population of the Tarcău Sandstone has a lower variability than the thicker‐bedded population. Such differences might reflect contrasting depositional settings, such as the difference between channel levées and basin plains.     

广西冰雹气候统计分析及减灾对策

统计分析了1956年以来以来广西冰雹的时空分布特征及影响因子,并提出了减灾对策。广西冰雹集中在2～5月,主要发生在14～19时;北多南少,西多东少,山区比沿海多;大范围冰雹过程可分为高原东部深槽型;南支槽型;华北深槽型。其中南支槽是冰雹天气的最主要系统;冰雹次数与拔海高度正相关,与年平均气温负相关。     

关于气象灾害笼罩面积与出现概率的一个定理

从气象图表(如天气图)上可以得到某气象灾害(如暴雨、高温,也可以是一般气象现象、要素、变量等)所笼罩的面积占总面积的百分比F,从气象资料中可以得到该气象现象的出现概率p。本文证明:F对时间的平均值等于p对天气图面积的平均值。本文初步讨论了这个定理的应用,还指出对这类问题的深入分析会引出分布函数概念和熵气象学。     

对地观测卫星地面站的站址选择和布局分析

现代小卫星技术是近些年来迅速发展起来的航天领域高新技术，利用该技术为地球观测服务是一件远景可观、意义深远的事情。在对地观测卫星的诸多关键技术之中，地面站的设计是一个很重要的方面。本文主要对对地观测卫星地面站的站址选择与布局进行了详细的讨论。     

临安大气气溶胶理化特性季节变化

分别利用碳成分分析仪、离子色谱仪和原子吸收光谱仪等获取浙江省临安地区大气气溶胶在春、夏、秋、冬四季的质量浓度、离子与碳成分特性，并对不同粒径气溶胶成分分布特点作了较详细分析。结果表明:气溶胶质量浓度、可溶性离子浓度以及碳成分浓度具有明显的季节变化趋势。整个尺度范围内，气溶胶质量浓度季节变化特点为春季浓度最高，达到534 μg/m3；冬季次之，质量浓度为117.21 μg/m3；夏季浓度最低，平均为65.7 μg/m3；秋季质量浓度98.6 μg/m3。可溶性离子成分在气溶胶中所占比例具有明显的季节性，其中夏季最高为49.4%，春季最低为11.3%。硫酸根离子SO₄2-和氨根离子NH₄+和硝酸根离子NO₃- 3种离子浓度之和约占离子总量的75%~83%。受温度影响，硝酸根离子NO₃-浓度随季节变化幅度较大，夏季平均浓度为1.7 μg/m3, 冬季平均浓度为11.5 μg/m3，是夏季浓度的6.8倍。碳浓度分布特点显示，气溶胶中元素碳浓度春季最高，夏季最低。有机碳浓度春季最高，冬季最低。气溶胶粒度分布特点也非常明显。四季中粒径小于11 μm（PM₁₁）的气溶胶均占气溶胶总量的90%以上，粒径小于2.1 μm（PM_2.1）的气溶胶占到气溶胶总量的53%以上。可溶性离子在粒径小于2.1 μm气溶胶颗粒中，以硫酸根离子、氨根离子和硝酸根离子为主。碳成分尺度分布特征为颗粒越小，有机碳及元素碳浓度越高。     

Transfer processes in a simulated urban street canyon

The transfer processes within and above a simulated urban street canyon were investigated in a generic manner. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to aid understanding and to produce some simple operational parameterisations. In this study we addressed specifically the commonly met situation where buoyancy effects arising from elevated surface temperatures are not important, i.e. when mechanical forces outweigh buoyancy forces. In a geophysical context this requires that some suitably defined Richardson number is small. From an engineering perspective this is interpreted as the important case when heat transfer within and above urban street canyons is by forced convection. Surprisingly, this particular scenario (for which the heat transfer coefficient between buildings and the flow is largest), has been less well studied than the situation where buoyancy effects are important. The CFD technique was compared against wind-tunnel experiments to provide model evaluation. The height-to-width ratio of the canyon was varied through the range 0.5–5 and the flow was normal to the canyon axis. By setting the canyon’s facets to have the same or different temperatures or to have a partial temperature distribution, simulations were carried out to investigate: (a) the influence of geometry on the flow and mixing within the canyon and (b) the exchange processes within the canyon and across the canyon top interface. Results showed that the vortex-type circulation and turbulence developed within the canyon produced a temperature distribution that was, essentially, spatially uniform (apart from a relatively thin near-wall thermal boundary layer) This allowed the temperatures within the street canyon to be specified by just one value T _can , the canyon temperature. The variation of T _can with wind speed, surface temperatures and geometry was extensively studied. Finally, the exchange velocity u _E across the interface between the canyon and the flow above was calculated based on a heat flux balance within the canyon and between the canyon and the flow above. Results showed that u _E was approximately 1% of a characteristic wind velocity above the street canyon. The problem of radiative exchange is not addressed but it can, of course, be introduced analytically, or computationally, when necessary.     

2003年8～9月北京及周边地区云系微物理飞机探测研究

对2003年8～9月北京及周边地区4次飞机探测结果，特别对资料较完整的8月15日的层积云（Sc）和9月4日的层状云（St）系进行了较详细的分析。结果表明，FSSP－100测量的小云粒子（云滴、冰晶）最大浓度的变化范围从Sc云的120 cm-3到深厚高层云（As）的183 cm-3，平均直径7.22～16.05 μm。2D－GA2探头观测的冰粒子最大浓度变化范围从2.25×10-3 cm-3到3.29×10-1 cm-3。机载King热线液态水含量仪（King－LWC）的最大含水量变化范围为0.42～0.69 g/m3。St云垂直和水平分布不均匀特性很明显，高空（-10℃层以上）有较大的小云粒子浓度，达到120 cm-3以上，尺度也比较大，最大值为20 μm。云中液态水含量随高度缓慢减小，基本处于0.1～0.2 g/m3的范围。在-5.9～-8℃层，主要是柱状冰晶和少量结淞体，-8～-12℃层显示基本为结淞粒子，-20℃层左右表现出较多的枝状冰粒子。大冰粒子浓度基本在0.01～1 L-1左右。Sc云和St云的平均谱存在明显的差异。Sc云系的大粒子不同层的平均谱很相似，为单峰分布，谱宽达到1500 μm。越到云低层，云粒子浓度越低。St云系的大粒子不同层的谱分布差异比较大，云中在0～-8℃和-8～-12℃层，直径小于400 μm的粒子谱型基本相似，大于400 μm的大粒子谱分布差异较大，-8～-12℃层有明显的双峰分布特征，而0～-8℃呈现多峰特征，谱宽达到1300～1400 μm。     

2005年登陆我国热带气旋特征分析

热带气旋是影响我国沿海的主要灾害性天气系统之一, 它产生的狂风、暴雨、巨浪和风暴潮, 给沿岸地区人民生命和国家财产安全带来严重威胁。而严重的台风灾害, 往往是台风登陆引起的。为进一步研究登陆热带气旋的活动规律, 总结了2005年登陆我国热带气旋的特点, 结果表明:2005年登陆我国热带气旋具有登陆季节短、登陆地点分布异常、台风比例异常偏高、灾害损失极为严重的特点。同时, 还讨论了2005年登陆我国热带气旋异常的气候原因, 并指出未来几年登陆热带气旋和台风的年频数处在上升趋势中。     

基于Kohonen网络的点群综合研究

基于Kohonen网络模型，对标准的SOM（self-organizing feature map）算法进行了改进，在保持点群原有空间分布特征的情况下研究点群的选取和典型化。实践表明，该方法适合任意空间分布类型的点群综合。     

Numerical simulation of hydrodynamic characteristics and bedload transport in cross sections of two gravel-bed rivers based on one-dimensional lateral distribution method

Accurate evaluation and prediction of bedload transport are crucial in studies of fluvial hydrodynamic characteristics and river morphology.This paper presents a one-dimensional numerical model based on the one-dimensional lateral distribution method(1 D-LDM) and six classic bedload transport formulae that can be used to simulate hydrodynamic characteristics and bedload transport discharge in cross sections.Two gravel-bed rivers,i.e.the Danube River located approximately 70 km downstream from Bratislava in Slovakia and the Tolten River in south of Chile are used as examples.In the 1 D-LDM,gravity,bed shear stress,turbulent diffusion,and secondary flow are included to allow for accurate predictions of flow velocity and consequently bed shear stress in the cross sections.Six classic formulae were applied to evaluate the non-dimensional bedload transport rate,and the bedload transport discharge through a river cross section is obtained by integrating the bedload transport rate over the width of the cross section.The results show that the root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) of velocity and water discharge were less than 8% of the observed magnitude,while the correlation coefficient between model predictions and observations was close to unity.The formulae proposed by Ashida and Michiue(1972),in which particle collision with the bed is taken into account,and by Camenen and Larson(2005),which allows for yielding a non-zero bedload transport rate even when the bed shear stress is smaller than the critical bed shear stress value,appeared to be more appropriate for predicting the observed bedload transport rate in the studied cross sections of two gravel-bed rivers.If non-uniform sediment mixtures were considered,the bedload transport discharge through a cross-section could change considerably by up to 22.5% of the observed magnitude.The relations proposed by Ashida and Michiue(1972) and Egiazaroff(1965) for parameterizing the hiding factor yielded more realistic model predictions in comparison with observations for the measured data set collected for the Tolten River,while the one proposed by Wilcock and Crowe(2003) performs the best for the data set measured for the Danube River.