On the spatial relationship between landslides and causative factors on Lantau Island, Hong Kong

This paper presents a statistical approach to study the spatial relationship between landslides and their causative factors at the regional level. The approach is based on digital databases, and incorporates such methods as statistics, spatial pattern analysis, and interactive mapping. Firstly, the authors propose an object-oriented conceptual model for describing a landslide event, and a combined database of landslides and environmental factors is constructed by integrating the various databases within such a conceptual framework. The statistical histogram, spatial overlay, and dynamic mapping methods are linked together to interactively evaluate the spatial pattern of the relationship between landslides and their causative factors. A case study of an extreme event in 1993 on Lantau Island indicates that rainfall intensity and the migration of the center of the rainstorm greatly influence the occurrence of landslides on Lantau Island. A regional difference in the relationship between landslides and topography is identified. Most of the landslides in the middle and western parts of the island occurred on slopes with slope angles of 25–35°, while in the eastern part, the corresponding range is 30–35°. Overlaying landslide data with land cover reveals that a large number of landslides occurred in the bareland and shrub-covered area, and in the transition zones between different vegetation types. The proposed approach can be used not only to analyze the general characteristics of such a relationship, but also to depict its spatial distribution and variation, thereby providing a sound basis for regional landslide prediction.     

Alpine medicinal plant trade and Himalayan mountain livelihood strategies

Commercial alpine medicinal plants are collected from the wild by local rural households throughout the Himalaya and sold in order to increase household incomes. Recent studies indicate that this annual trade amounts to thousands of tonnes of roots, rhizomes, tubers, leaves, etc., worth millions of US dollars. The main market is in India. Based on a national survey, including the most commonly traded species, and a village study this paper investigates the importance of the alpine medicinal plant trade at national and local levels in Nepal. The national survey included standardized open-ended interviews with 232 harvesters, 64 local traders, 66 central wholesalers, 47 regional wholesalers, and 16 production companies. The village survey is based on the daily records of household activities in 15 households in a one-year period. The annual Nepalese alpine and sub-alpine medicinal plant trade is conservatively estimated to vary from 480 to 2500 t with a total harvester value of US$0.8–3.3 million; the average harvester value is estimated at US$66.0 ± 99.0. The trade in 1997/98 amounted to 1600 t with a harvester value of US$2.3 million and an export value equivalent to 2.5% of total export from Nepal. Medicinal plant harvesting was found to constitute an integrated part of local livelihood strategies, contributing from 3 to 44% (average of 12%) of the annual household income. Importance at household level depended on land and animal holdings, and the availability of adult male labour. The validity and reliability of methods and analyses is evaluated, and issues of conservation and management of alpine medicinal plant species under the community forestry scheme are discussed.     

合肥市耕地和粮食可持续发展研究

收集1980～1999年合肥市耕地、人口、粮食等资料，定量分析在城市化快速发展下耕地的数量、质量变化和耕地减少的形式以及人口、粮食的变化，并用回归法分析它们的变化趋势。研究认为，在2005，2010年合肥市食物保障能力分别为97％和95％，对粮食生产与其影响因素进行了灰色关联分析，提出提高粮食产量的对策和实现途径。     

中外饭店区域集团化特征对比研究

随着饭店业全球化进程的发展，饭店之间的竞争日趋激烈，国际饭店集团的出现使国际旅游市场和饭店业都发生了极大的变化。与中国饭店集团相比，国际饭店集团具有诸多竞争优势，本文将以世界饭店集团300强为例，与中国饭店区域集团化特征进行对比分析，从而为中国饭店业借鉴国际饭店集团成功经验，应对其挑战提供启示。     

台湾西南部泥岩土地利用型态与环境劣化趋势之分析

台湾泥岩恶地因其特殊之土壤理化性质及区域微气候的相互恶性循环，衍生生态环境等问题。在以往之35年，裸化面积从1967年的2532hm^2，至2001年11月已扩大为15539hm^2。其表土大量流失、崩塌、河川含砂量激增、植被退化与微气候变异等破坏，更显示泥岩之环境劣化问题。以SPOT卫星影像判识泥岩裸露面积，探讨不同时期之地景变异，并应用地景生态理论量化泥岩地表不同土地利用之空间结构变化，分析地景结构变迁之生态内涵与生态指标意义。因子分析结果其主要变异为多样性因子与形状破碎型因子所影响，而应用马可夫链模式计算出不同时期之土地利用变迁内涵，此结果搭配指标分析可解释泥岩裸露面积与竹林面积皆持续扩大，乃由人为土地利用之活动及植被变迁所引起。     

红外光谱定量比较分析法及其应用

利用红外光谱定量比较分析的原理，从定向及微区的角度研究晶化固态物质的成分、结构等，有效地解决矿物、岩石、矿床乃至构造研究中的诸多问题。     

现代水文与空间数据采集技术

从基本定义、研究对象、研究领域、研究手段、研究方法、研究目的以及数据采集、服务等多个不同层面，对传统水文(学)和现代水文(学)进行了比较，分析了二者的特征和区别，论述了从传统水文向现代水文转变是现代水利的必然要求，而空间数据采集技术是实现这一转变极其重要的途径和手段。     

新疆乌鲁木齐地区多年水氡观测资料的统计与分析

通过对乌鲁木齐地区1980—7．001年的水氡观测资料进行全时域扫描分析，以乌鲁木齐为中心300km范围内Ms≥5．0的地震事件为研究对象，挑选出观测资料中异常时段，用地震预报效能评价评分的方法对水氡观测资料预报地震的能力进行评价。     

大型双槽渡槽地震反应分析

为了得到比较精确的大型双槽渡槽结构的地震反应，根据渡槽结构复杂、影响动力因素较多等特点，采用8结点空间块体单元对渡槽槽身和槽墩进行有限元离散，分别用耦合自由度和多个弹簧单元分别模拟渡槽槽身横向拉杆、加劲肋和盆式橡胶支座，建立了大型双槽渡槽结构地层反应分析的有限元模型，计算了南水北调水利工程中的双洎河大型双槽渡槽的振动特性，并分别用反应谱法和时程分析法对该渡槽进行了地震反应分析，计算结果可为该渡槽的抗震设计提供参考。