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DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF PREDICTION OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
DURING 1997 ~ 1998 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
By comparing with ENSO events that ever happened in the history, the basic features and probable
causes of the anomalous sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean during 1997 and 1998 have been
analyzed diagnostically. It is found that the 1997/1998 El Nino had significant abnormalities and peculiarities. It
differs from the previous El Ni?o events falling into the simple “eastern pattern” or “western pattern”. The
predictions of 1997/1998 El Ni?o event have also been tested with an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled
dynamic model. The results show that the skills of the 0~24 lead month forecasts for the warm event are all
above 0.5. The predictions of the mature phase and the later stages of the warm event are better than those of the
beginning phase. 相似文献
54.
Lauren Patterson Marie Urban Aaron Myers Budhendra Bhaduri Eddie Bright Phillip Coleman 《GeoJournal》2007,69(1-2):93-102
Geospatial technologies and digital data have developed and disseminated rapidly in conjunction with increasing computing
efficiency and Internet availability. The ability to store and transmit large datasets has encouraged the development of national
infrastructure datasets in geospatial formats. National datasets are used by numerous agencies for analysis and modeling purposes
because these datasets are standardized and considered to be of acceptable accuracy for national scale applications. At Oak
Ridge National Laboratory a population model has been developed that incorporates national schools data as one of the model
inputs. This paper evaluates spatial and attribute inaccuracies present within two national school datasets, Tele Atlas North
America and National Center of Education Statistics (NCES).
Schools are an important component of the population model, because they are spatially dense clusters of vulnerable populations.
It is therefore essential to validate the quality of school input data. Schools were also chosen since a validated schools
dataset was produced in geospatial format for Philadelphia County; thereby enabling a comparison between a local dataset and
the national datasets.
Analyses found the national datasets are not standardized and incomplete, containing 76 to 90 percent of existing schools.
The temporal accuracy of updating annual enrollment values resulted in 89 percent inaccuracy for 2003. Spatial rectification
was required for 87 percent of NCES points, of which 58 percent of the errors were attributed to the geocoding process. Lastly,
it was found that by combining the two national datasets, the resultant dataset provided a more useful and accurate solution. 相似文献
55.
A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG.
The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of
advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the
two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions.
Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess
taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the
uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection
in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic
forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts. 相似文献
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通过与历史上已发生的ENSO事件的比较,对1997-1998年热带太平洋海温异常的基本特征和可能成因进行了诊断分析,发现1997/1998年E1Nino事件具有显著的异常性和独特性,不同于以往单纯的东部型或西部型E1Nino。对用一个简化海气耦合动力学模式做1998/1998年E1Nino事件的预报进行检验。结果表明该模式对这次暖事件超前0-24个月的预报技巧均在0.5以上,模式对暖事件的成熟位相及以后阶段的预报比对暖事件的开始阶段预报得好。 相似文献
58.
日本的农村工业和泉州的乡镇工业都具有规模小,个私经济为主,布局分散等特点,具有可比性,但彼此在发展模式、成长机制等方面存在明显的差异,日本的3种发展模式和泉州的5种发展模式各有千秋、但日本成长机制却明显优于泉州,为此,本文通过对比研究,对泉州乡镇企业的发展提出了6条建议。 相似文献
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中国农业的比较优势和国际竞争力 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
加入WTO后,中国农业将面临严峻的挑战,为了应对入世的挑战,首先必须朋全球的视角考察我国农业的比较优势和国际竞争力,国际比较分析表明,我国农业并无明显的比较优势,国际竞争力也较弱,为此,必须及早采取措施,提高我国农业的国际竞争力,在分析论证的基础上,本文提出了调整行业结构,给予政策扶持、加大城镇化力度等对策建议。 相似文献
60.