基于最优概率的中期延伸期过程累计降水量分级订正预报

采用ECMWF集合预报降水量资料和中国降水量观测资料,研发了基于最优概率的过程累计降水量分级订正预报(OPPF)技术,并在遵循总体技术思路的基础上设计出三种不同的OPPF计算方案(OPPF1、OPPF2、OPPF3),继而选用2015—2017年汛期(5—9月)中国91次区域性强降水过程进行回报试验和预报效果对比评估,结果表明:(1)在中期延伸期预报时效(96~360小时),对强降水和有无降水的预报效果,三种OPPF均明显优于集合平均(EMPF)和控制预报(CTPF);对中等以上或较强以上强度降水的预报效果,OPPF1和OPPF3明显优于CTPF、与EMPF基本接近。(2)三种OPPF相比,OPPF3的预报效果较OPPF1总体略胜一筹,两者均好于OPPF2。(3)预报效果存在明显的地域差异,南方地区强降水预报的TS评分明显大于北方地区,且OPPF3预报效果明显优于EMPF;在96~240小时预报时效,东北地区东部OPPF3强降水的预报效果也明显好于EMPF。      

乌鲁木齐市建设生态城市现状的比较分析及发展对策研究

乌鲁木齐是绿洲城市,自然环境比较脆弱,由于城市建设缺乏生态环境规划,能源消费结构不合理以及特殊的自然地理等原因,致使城市的生态环境问题十分突出,建设生态城市是乌鲁木齐市未来发展的必然选择。从城市生态系统的结构、功能和协调度三个方面构建了生态城市的评价指标体系,采用层次分析法对乌鲁木齐市生态城市建设现状进行了定量分析,同时选择北京、上海、成都、西安、兰州等5个城市的生态化程度进行对比,结果表明:乌鲁木齐市的结构指数为0.241,低于对比的5个城市;功能指数乌鲁木齐为0.271,远低于上海(0.615)、北京(0.466)和兰州(0.343),与西安(0.272)接近,略高于成都(0.222);从城市协调度来看,乌鲁木齐市的指数值为0.306,为6个城市的最小值,生态综合指数由高到低分别为北京(0.580)>上海(0.579)>成都(0.382)>西安(0.380)>兰州(0.360)>乌鲁木齐(0.270),乌鲁木齐市生态化程度为第Ⅳ级,即生态化程度较低,为6个城市中的最低值。总体上为较发达地区城市的生态化程度较高,中西部地区城市的生态化程度较低。乌鲁木齐市建设生态城市应采取的关键对策包括以下几个方面:1、编制城市综合生态区划,做好城市生态规划;2、优化能源结构,大力发展清洁能源;3、建立排污权交易制度,控制大气污染;4、采用边际成本定价方法、制定科学的水价、优化配置水资源;5、合理布局城市景观生态,搞好城市绿化及荒山绿化。     

最优TS评分方法在逐时降水订正中的初步应用及评估

使用2020年3—9月逐时更新的CMA广东短临3 km数值模式(CMA-GD(R3)模式)1～12 h逐小时降水量资料,利用最优TS评分订正方法(OTS)对逐小时降水量进行分级订正,并分别从整体和分类型降水过程预报订正效果进行了检验和对比评估。结果表明：从整体预报订正性能来看,通过OTS方法对CMA-GD(R3)模式订正后,对于≥1 mm/h及以上量级的降水,OTS均有较好的订正能力,并且随着雨强的增加,其TS评分的改善比率越大;同时,OTS可有效减少各个预报时效的漏报率和空报率,其中漏报率减小更加明显,表现出明显的湿偏差(空报偏多)。从三类暴雨过程逐时降水预报订正效果来看,通过OTS订正之后,对于≥1 mm/h的降水,OTS对三类暴雨类型均有正的订正能力。其中在0.1 mm、1 mm、10 mm、20 mm、35 mm、50 mm 6个量级上,季风型的逐时降水预报表现最好,6个量级的TS评分值分别为0.403、0.232、0.053、0.023、0.009和0.004;在5 mm量级上锋面型的逐时降水预报表现最优,其TS值为0.102。从改善效果来看,经过OTS订正后,在1 mm量级...     

Wave run-up on bermed coastal structures

Reliable estimation of wave run-up is required for the effective and efficient design of coastal structures when flooding or wave overtopping volumes are an important consideration in the design process. In this study, a unified formula for the wave run-up on bermed structures has been developed using collected and existing data. As data on berm breakwaters was highly limited, physical model tests were conducted and the run-up was measured. Conventional governing parameters and influencing factors were then used to predict the dimensionless run-up level with 2% exceedance probability. The developed formula includes the effect of water depth which is required in understanding the influence of sea level rise and consequent changes of wave height to water depth ratio on the future hydraulic performance of the structures. The accuracy measures such as RMSE and Bias indicated that the developed formula is more accurate than the existing formulas. Additionally, the new formula was validated using field measurements and its superiority was observed when compared to the existing prediction formulas. Finally, the new design formula incorporating the partial safety factor was introduced as a design tool for engineers.     

北部湾典型海岛生态系统服务价值空间异质性对比研究

基于北部湾海域典型海岛高分1号数据,借助于CART决策树方法,获取了广西北部湾两个典型海岛的景观格局数据,并采用生态系统服务价值计量模型、空间自相关模型及地统计学中的变异函数模型对其生态系统服务价值进行了空间异质性分析。结果表明:团和岛单位面积生态系统服务价值是七星岛的1.08倍,但其变异系数低于七星岛;七星岛由于其地质背景为泥沙岛,景观格局受到人类活动以及自然环境的强烈干扰,趋向于复杂化和破碎化;而团和岛由于所处的外部环境以及自身的地质特征,景观格局呈现出整体斑块化分布状态;团和岛的景观格局主要受到结构性因素的控制,而七星岛则以随机性因素控制为主,选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征其复杂化和破碎化,来决定其优先开发时序,可对前者进行适当开发,而对后者适当进行生态保护;对受到结构性因素影响的岛屿在进行开发时,时序的识别选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征,若变程和Moran’s指数越小,说明海岛整体的景观分布格局趋向于复杂化和破碎化,反之生态系统较好,可进行优先开发。同时本文构建了北部湾海岛生态系统异质性评估与自然资源管理框架,并提出了海岛管理的建议与对策。     

Primary molecular basis of androgenic gland endocrine sex regulation revealed by transcriptome analysis in Eriocheir sinensis

In crustaceans, the male sexual dif ferentiation and maintenance are specially regulated by androgenic gland(AG). However, little is known about the genes involved in the regulation process.RNA-Seq was performed on AG with ejaculatory duct(AG_ED) and ejaculatory duct(ED) as control in Eriocheir sinensis, one of the most important economic and ?shery crabs with typically sex dimorphism. A total of 925 unigenes were identi?ed as dif ferentially expressed genes(DEGs) and the expression of nine genes randomly selected was con?rmed by qRT-PCR. 667 unigenes were up-regulated in AG_ED, being supposed to be AG preferential genes. Among them, the full length of i nsulin-like androgenic gland factor( IAG) cDNA named as Es-IAG was obtained as a logo gene of AG, which together with the genes i nsulin-like receptor( INR), and s ingle insulin binding domain protein( SIBD), might constitute the sex regulation pathway. Several sex related genes were identi?ed, and their function will have to be investigated. Also,the identi?cation of j uvenile hormone epoxide hydrolase 1( JHEH1), ecdysteroid 22-hydroxylase( DIB) and e cdysone receptor( ECR) preliminarily clari?ed the molecular regulation mechanism of eyestalk-AG-testis axis, which plays important roles in molting and reproduction. The results will enhance our understanding for the molecular basis of the AG involved in male sex regulation in crabs.     

新旧国家标准地理信息分类体系的对比分析

从分类体系和语义一致性两个方面,利用定性和定量分析的方法,对比分析了新旧国家标准地理信息分类体系之间的差异,指出了新标准存在的主要问题,并提出了一些可行性的修改意见。     

台风Haitang(0505)登陆过程地形影响的数值模拟试验

以2005年严重影响我国的登陆台风Haitang为研究对象,在用MM5模式成功模拟台风登陆前后路径、强度、降水以及结构特征的基础上,通过地形敏感性试验,分析了地形对台风的影响及其机理。结果表明:台风在经过台湾及其后在福建登陆期间的异常路径是地形诱生低压发生发展的结果;在降水强度上东部沿海特殊地形对台风北侧东南气流的辐合抬升使得暴雨增幅度1倍以上;地形对台风强度也有一定影响,约为4～5hPa。通过对有无地形影响时台风结构的比较发现地形影响主要在低层,使得高度场分裂两个中心,低层台风主体受山脉阻挡在位置上落后于高层。分析还发现台风登陆前夕移动方向西侧相当位温向西倾斜也可能与地形有关。     

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION AND ANALYSIS OF HEC-6 RIVER MORPHOLOGICAL MODEL

Only comparatively few experimental studies have been carried out to investigate the performance of the HEC-6 river morphological model. The model was developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers. In this study, experiments were carried out in a 20 m long concrete flume 0.6 m wide with varying rectangular cross-sections. The channel bed is paved with uniform sand of D₅₀ = 0.9 mm and D₉₀ = 1.2 mm within the test reach of 12 m. Two types of experiments were carried out with sediment transport, one under steady uniform flow and another under steady non-uniform flow conditions. Nine steady uniform flow experiments were carried out to compare the measured equilibrium relationship of flow and sediment transport rate with two bedload formulae, namely, Du Boys and Meyer–Peter and Muller, and with three total load formulae, namely, Toffaleti, Laursen and Yang. It was found that even though the sediment transport consists of a certain portion of bedload, the total load formulae give satisfactory results and better agreement than the two bedload formulae. Five steady non-uniform flow experiments were carried out under various conditions of varying bed profile and channel width and also with sediment addition and withdrawal. The measured transient water surface and bed profiles are compared with the computed results from the HEC-6 model. It was found that the Toffaleti and Yang total load formulae used in the HEC-6 model give the most satisfactory prediction of actual bed profiles under various conditions of non-uniform flow and sediment transport. The effects of Manning's n, variations of sediment inflow, various sediment transport formulae, sediment grain size and the model numerical parameters, i.e. distance interval Δx and numerical weighting factor, on the computed water surface and bed profiles were determined. It was found that the selection of the sediment transport formulae has the most significant effect on the computed results. It can be concluded that the HEC-6 model can predict satisfactorily a long-term average pattern of local scour and deposition along a channel with either a small abrupt change in geometry or gradually varying cross-sections. However, the accuracy of the model prediction is reduced in the regions where highly non-uniform flow occurs.     

西太平洋海域现场培养实验中挥发性卤代烃浓度的变化及其影响因素

CH₃I、CHCl₃、C₂HCl₃和CH₂Br₂是挥发性卤代烃4种重要成分,对大气化学产生重要影响。于2018年10月在西太平洋进行船基现场培养实验,研究微量元素Fe (50 nmol/L)、酸化(pH=7.9)、酸化(pH=7.9)和微量元素Fe (50 nmol/L)耦合作用、微量元素Fe (50 nmol/L)和N/P (16∶1)耦合作用及沙尘(4 mg/L)对浮游植物释放CH₃I、CHCl₃、C₂HCl₃和CH₂Br₂含量的影响。结果表明,与对照组相比,实验组CH₃I、C₂HCl₃和CH₂Br₂的释放均被不同程度抑制;CHCl₃的释放除添加沙尘时表现抑制作用外,其他条件下均为促进作用;实验组培养周期内叶绿素a浓度较高,而营养盐浓度变化规律不明显。总的来说,酸化和微量元素Fe可能是影响浮游植物释放挥发性卤代烃的重要限制因素,沙尘对促进浮游植物生长繁殖的影响更为显著。