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101.
ABSTRACTFlood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps. 相似文献
102.
ABSTRACT In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows. 相似文献
103.
Liqiu Meng 《地球空间信息科学学报》2020,23(1):61-67
ABSTRACTGeosensing and social sensing as two digitalization mainstreams in big data era are increasingly converging toward an integrated system for the creation of semantically enriched digital Earth. Along with the rapid developments of AI technologies, this convergence has inevitably brought about a number of transformations. On the one hand, value-adding chains from raw data to products and services are becoming value-adding loops composed of four successive stages – Informing, Enabling, Engaging and Empowering (IEEE). Each stage is a dynamic loop for itself. On the other hand, the “human versus technology” relationship is upgraded toward a game-changing “human and technology” collaboration. The information loop is essentially shaped by the omnipresent reciprocity between humans and technologies as equal partners, co-learners and co-creators of new values.The paper gives an analytical review on the mutually changing roles and responsibilities of humans and technologies in the individual stages of the IEEE loop, with the aim to promote a holistic understanding of the state of the art of geospatial information science. Meanwhile, the author elicits a number of challenges facing the interwoven human-technology collaboration. The transformation to a growth mind-set may take time to realize and consolidate. Research works on large-scale semantic data integration are just in the beginning. User experiences of geovisual analytic approaches are far from being systematically studied. Finally, the ethical concerns for the handling of semantically enriched digital Earth cover not only the sensitive issues related to privacy violation, copyright infringement, abuse, etc. but also the questions of how to make technologies as controllable and understandable as possible for humans and how to keep the technological ethos within its constructive sphere of societal influence. 相似文献
104.
地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。 相似文献
105.
GIS中线元的误差熵带研究 总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3
基于现有的线元位置不确定性模型大多与置信水平的选取有关,而置信水平的选取带有一定程度的主观性,因而不能惟一确定,引入信息熵理论,提出了线元的误差熵带模型,并将它与“E-带”进行了比较,计算了落入其内的概率。该模型根据联合熵惟一确定,与置信水平的选取无关。 相似文献
106.
Interactions between surface and groundwater are a key component of the hydrologic budget on the watershed scale. Models that honor these interactions are commonly based on the conductance concept that presumes a distinct interface at the land surface, separating the surface from the subsurface domain. These types of models link the subsurface and surface domains via an exchange flux that depends upon the magnitude and direction of the hydraulic gradient across the interface and a proportionality constant (a measure of the hydraulic connectivity). Because experimental evidence of such a distinct interface is often lacking in field systems, there is a need for a more general coupled modeling approach. 相似文献
107.
氢醌滴定法测定金矿石中金的不确定度评定 总被引:5,自引:4,他引:5
以氢醌滴定法测定金矿石中贵金属金的实例进行不确定度评定。测量结果的不确定度由配制金标准母液、金标准工作液、氢醌滴定液浓度、称样质量、滴定样品所用氢醌溶液体积等所引入的不确定度分量组成。在对各个不确定度分量进行量化的基础上,通过合成得到测量结果的标准不确定度,再乘以95%置信概率下的扩展因子2,得到测量结果的扩展不确定度。 相似文献
108.
109.
对空间数据不确定性研究的思考 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
李德仁 《测绘科学技术学报》2006,23(6):391-392,395
对GIS中空间数据不确定性研究中存在的问题进行思考后提出了5点建议.主要包括:1) 要区分GIS中确定性目标和不确定性目标;2) 要区分用离散点逼近曲线/曲面的逼近误差和离散点自身量测误差及其传播;3) 要研究GIS中的几何不确定性,更要重视研究属性和时态不确定性;4) 要研究空间数据质量,更要研究空间信息服务的质量;5) 空间数据不确定性研究要努力向实际应用转化. 相似文献
110.