Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube,Serbia

The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Significance of post‐peak metamorphic reaction microstructures in the ultrahigh temperature Eastern Ghats Province,India

Ultrahigh temperature (UHT) granulites in the Eastern Ghats Province (EGP) have a complex P–T–t history. We review the P–T histories of UHT metamorphism in the EGP and use that as a framework for investigating the P–T–t history of Mg–Al‐rich granulites from Anakapalle, with the express purpose of trying to reconcile the down‐pressure‐dominated P–T path with other UHT localities in the EGP. Mafic granulite that is host to Mg–Al‐rich metasedimentary granulites at Anakapalle has a protolith age of c. 1,580 Ma. Mg–Al‐rich metasedimentary granulites within the mafic granulite at Anakapalle were metamorphosed at UHT conditions during tectonism at 960–875 Ma, meaning that the UHT metamorphism was not the result of contact metamorphism from emplacement of the host mafic rock. Reworking occurred during the Pan‐African (c. 600–500 Ma) event, and is interpreted to have produced hydrous assemblages that overprint the post‐peak high‐T retrograde assemblages. In contrast to rocks elsewhere in the EGP that developed post‐peak cordierite, the metasedimentary granulites at Anakapalle developed post‐peak, generation ‘2’ reaction products that are cordierite‐absent and nominally anhydrous. Therefore, rocks at Anakapalle offer the unique opportunity to quantify the pressure drop that occurred during so‐called M2 that affected the EGP. We argue that M2 is either a continuation of M1 and that the overall P–T path shape is a complex counter‐clockwise loop, or that M1 is an up‐temperature counter‐clockwise deviation superimposed on the M2 path. Therefore, rather than the rocks at Anakapalle having a metamorphic history that is apparently anomalous from the rest of the EGP, we interpret that other previously studied localities in the EGP record a different part of the same P–T path history as Anakapalle, but do not preserve a significant record of pressure decrease. This is due either to the inability of refractory rocks to extensively react to produce a rich mineralogical record of pressure decrease, or because the earlier high‐P part of the rocks history was erased by the M1 loop. Irrespective of the specific scenario, models for the tectonic evolution of the EGP must take the substantial pressure decrease during M2 into account, as it is probable the P–T record at Anakapalle is a reflection of tectonics affecting the entire province.     

Monitoring over‐winter soil water dynamics in a freezing and snow‐covered environment using a thermally insulated tensiometer

Water potential below a frozen soil layer was continuously monitored over an entire winter period (using thermally insulated tensiometers sheltered in a heated chamber) along with other soil, snow and atmospheric variables. In early winter, the freezing front advanced under a thin snow cover, inducing upward soil water flow in the underlying unfrozen soil. The freezing front started to retreat when the snow cover became thick enough to insulate the soil, resulting in the reversal of the flow direction in the unfrozen zone. These data provide a clear illustration of soil water dynamics, which have rarely been monitored with a tensiometer. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleomagnetism of the Carboniferous Rouchel Block,Tamworth Belt,and pole path revision for the New England Orogen,eastern Australia

Structural, magnetic and gravity trends of the southern New England Orogen (SNEO) indicate four oroclinal structures, none conclusively confirmed paleomagnetically. Curved structures of the Tamworth Belt (TB)—a continental forearc exposed across six tectono-stratigraphic blocks with interlinked Carboniferous stratigraphies and extensive ignimbritic rocks known to retain primary magnetisations despite prevalent overprinting—are prospective to oroclinal testing through comparison of Carboniferous pole paths for individual blocks. Pole paths (a) have been established for the Rocky Creek and Werrie blocks (northwestern/western TB), (b) are described herein for the Rouchel Block (southwestern TB), and (c) are forthcoming for the Gresford and Myall blocks (southern/southeastern TB). The Rouchel path derives from detailed paleomagnetic, rock magnetic and magnetic fabric studies. Thermal, alternating field and liquid nitrogen demagnetisations show a low-temperature overprint, attributed to late Oligocene weathering, and high-temperature (HT) primary and overprint components in both magnetite and hematite carriers, showing slight, systematic, directional differences with hematite providing the better cleaned site poles. Seven primary mean-site poles of Tournaisian and mainly Visean age and three overprint poles show six positive fold tests, five at 95% or higher confidence levels. Two dispersed groupings of intermediate (IT) and HT overprint site poles of Permian and Permo-Triassic age are attributed to early and late phases in oroclinal evolution of the SNEO. HT and IT/HT overprint site poles of mid-Carboniferous age are attributed to Variscan Australia–Asia convergence. Individual pole paths for the Rocky Creek, Werrie and Rouchel blocks show no noticeable rotation between them, indicating primary curvature for the southwestern TB. Their integrated SNEO pole path establishes a reference frame for determining rotations of the southern and southeastern TB.     

A microscale model for air pollutant dispersion simulation in urban areas: Presentation of the model and performance over a single building

A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model's performance, using CEDVAL(Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Dispersion Models) wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios;and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.     

基于贝叶斯模型的中国未来气温变化预估及不确定性分析

利用第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中35个全球气候模式历史模拟与RCP4.5预估结果,通过贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)对中国气温进行多模式集合研究,给出了中国未来气温变化预估及其不确定性的时空分布。结果表明,中国21世纪冬夏将持续升温,且升温具有冬季高于夏季,北方高于南方的特点。初期(2016—2035年)北方有很大可能(80%)升温超过0.7℃,南方升温相同幅度的概率则超过50%;中期(2046—2065年)北方和南方升温超过1.5℃的概率分别为80%和50%;末期(2081—2100年),北方(南方)有80%(50%)的可能的升温超过2℃。气温预估的不确定性研究发现,无论冬夏,21世纪不同时期升温相对较弱的塔里木盆地、青藏高原南侧和中国东南地区为不确定性低值区,基本低于0.6℃,对应可信度较高,如21世纪初期信噪比超过4;而不确定性的高值区则主要分布在新疆北部、东北平原北部和青藏高原东南侧等升温相对较大的地区,普遍高于1℃,对应可信度较低,如初期信噪比低于2.5。此外,基于信噪比对比发现除青藏高原东部外,其他区域夏季预估的可信度均高于冬季,21世纪末期高于初期,且空间分布特征一致。     

5—6月东北冷涡持续活动及强度特征

利用1960—2012年5—6月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,基于冷涡经典定义,采取客观识别方法检索东北冷涡活动过程,根据东北冷涡活动时空变化特征给出东北冷涡持续活动过程标准, 通过冷涡强度指数进行定量化分析,该指数对冷涡持续活动过程具有较好表征意义。冷涡活动强对应5月乌拉尔山阻塞高压、贝加尔湖阻塞高压和6月鄂霍次克海阻塞高压活动频繁。通过强弱指数年合成,得到6月强指数年冷涡系统较深厚,集中于对流层中高层,冷心结构明显,具有一定大气斜压特征; 高层存在冷中心,低层有冷空气活动,中高层西风带呈明显的上游分流和下游汇合特征,分汇流之间呈东北高、西南低的偶极子阻塞形势;弱指数年冷涡系统较浅薄,主要集中在对流层中低层,冷心结构不明显,不存在阻塞形势。     

长江中下游地区暖区暴雨特征分析

利用2007到2013年5-9月间常规和非常规资料以及6 h一次的NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,将长江中下游地区暖区暴雨按天气形势划分为冷锋前暖区暴雨、暖切变暖区暴雨以及副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨三种类型。统计表明暖区暴雨一般发生在距离切变线(锋线)100~300 km的暖区内。主要结论包括:(1)冷锋型降水强度偏弱且分布均匀,集中在5、6月;暖切变型发生次数最多且强度大,主要发生在6、7月长江中下游地区的偏南部;副热带高压边缘型发生次数最少但强度较大,发生在7、8月。暖区暴雨的发生次数及强度在大别山、皖南山区较为集中。(2)暖区暴雨中短时强降水贡献大。(3)冷锋背景下的暖区暴雨一般产生在锋前低压槽中,暴雨落区与高低空急流耦合有紧密联系;暖切变型以低层暖切变线为主要天气背景,地面常有弱静止锋,暖区对流活动与中尺度急流结构、地形强迫等因素存在较高的相关性;副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨与局地的水汽积累和对流不稳定条件的发展有密切关系。据此建立三类暖区暴雨的概念模型。     

中亚低涡背景下南疆西部两次强冰雹环境场对比分析

利用常规资料、14:00加密探空、NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对比分析2013年6月18日和2014年6月23日南疆西部两次强冰雹环境场及物理机制,表明两次冰雹环境场有相同之处:在环流经向度较大的中亚低涡背景下,前期有明显降水,傍晚前后由中亚低涡后部西北气流下产生,高空干冷平流、低层暖湿环境、较大的垂直温度递减率及低层辐合线或切变线为冰雹天气提供了强不稳定层结和动力触发条件,为冷平流强迫类型。但两次冰雹中亚低涡位置、强度、物理机制变化等有所不同:"6·18"中亚低涡压至南疆西部,低涡强,西北风大,而"6·23"中亚低涡在巴尔喀什湖附近,位置偏北,低涡较弱,西北风较小;"6·18"偏西北气流、风(垂直)切变、强回波伸展高度、层结不稳定、水汽及动力等变化均较"6·23"明显偏强;"6·18"的0℃层和-20℃层的高度均比"6·23"的低300~400 m;"6·18"低层南疆盆地偏东风日变化明显,即傍晚到夜间增强,山前东西风辐合促使上升运动发展,并有明显的中尺度垂直环流圈,而"6·23"低层为西北风风速辐合及与偏东风的切变。     

哈密地区空中水汽及增水潜力分析

采用哈密地区6站1975—2014年逐日地面水汽压和降水量资料,计算了哈密各站的大气可降水量、有效空中水资源量、自然降水产出率和人工增水潜力值,并分析了各量的时空分布特征。结果表明:哈密地区年平均整层大气可降水量为2560~4327 mm,年均有效空中水资源量约为232~828 mm,占整层大气可降水量的1/4~1/10;年均自然降水产出率在9%~28%,自然降水产出率与降水量成正比关系。哈密地区的年人工增水潜力理论计算值在844~2399 mm之间,潜力值在夏季最大,巴里坤和伊吾明显多于其它区域。