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?????GEO????????????????????????????????????Kalman???????GEO?????????????????????????????????????η????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????з?????????????????????????????????????????Kalman???????????н????????????????к???????????????????????,????????????????Kalman????????????????????????????,???????Kalman???????????????????????????????????????????Kalman?????????????????????GEO?????????????     

基于人工神经网络的沿海风速多步预测研究

基于气象历史观测资料,将长短期记忆网络LSTM方法和Transformer模型结合提出了混合短期风速多步预测模型BLSTM TRA。以山东半岛南部沿海6个台站为研究区域,通过气象台站观测数据构建数据集。经与2018年ECMWF模式6 h预报结果对比分析,得出如下结论：构建的BLSTM TRA多步预测模型可大幅度降低风速误差,BLSTM TRA的1 h单步预测结果和ECMWF预报模式结果对比,其RMSE平均降低了58.9%,MAE平均降低了63.2%;风速误差和大风统计过程分析发现,BLSTM TRA模型具有一定的抗干扰能力,可以抓住短时大风等敏感信息,对于大风预报结果明显优于ECWMF模式和传统LSTM模型。     

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????????С????????????????????ж???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????顣?????????????????С??????????????????????3.6??10????^-5??ms????^-2??????????????С???????????????????????????????????????????????????4.6??10????^-5??ms????^-2??????????????????????????????????????С?????????????????????????????п???????Ч?????     

Deriving Changjiang coastal zone wind from C-band SAR and its application to salinity simulation

Wind plays an important role in hydrodynamic processes such as the expansion of Changjiang （Yangtze） River Diluted Water （CDW）, and shelf circulation in the Changjiang estuary. Thus, it is essential to include wind in the numerical simulation of these phenomena. Synthetic aperture radar （SAR） with high resolution and wide spatial coverage is valuable for measuring spatially inhomogeneous ocean surface wind fields. We have collected 87 ERS-2 SAR images with wind-induced streaks that cover the Cbangjiang coastal area, to verify and improve the validity of wind direction retrieval using the 2D fast Fourier transform method. We then used these wind directions as inputs to derive SAR wind speeds using the C-band model. To demonstrate the applicability of the algorithms, we validated the SAR-retrieved wind fields using QuikSCAT measurements and the atmospheric Weather Research Forecasting model. In general, we found good agreement between the datasets, indicating the reliability and applicability of SAR- retrieved algorithms under different atmospheric conditions. We investigated the main error sources of this process, and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the wind speed errors caused by the effect of speckle, uncertainties in wind direction, and inaccuracies in the normalized radar cross section. Finally, we used the SAR-retrieved wind fields to simulate the salinity distribution off the Changjiang estuary. The findings of this study will be valuable for wind resource assessment and the development of future numerical ocean models based on SAR images.     

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太阳活动区的磁场观测

我们利用北京天文台太阳磁场望远镜在1983年投入试观测期间取得的资料,对该年6月份的一群黑子的磁场以及耀斑作了综合分析,得到一些结论。以光球纵场为边界条件,计算了常α无力场。根据挤压无力场耀斑模式,我们认为耀斑爆发的能量,来自异极性黑子的相互靠近。磁中性线的扭曲程度,反映了无力场的状态。     

基于LabwindowsCVI的外腔半导体激光器数字稳频系统设计

为抑制外腔半导体激光器频率漂移,提高频率稳定性,提出一种数字稳频方法。该方法采用数据采集卡,基于LabwindowsCVI语言实现数字锁相放大模块获得稳频误差信号,通过此信号控制压电陶瓷电压,将852 nm外腔半导体激光器的频率锁在铯原子谱线上,实现20 s频率稳定度8.7×10-11。该数字稳频方法降低了人力成本,易升级和修改,具有移植性好和用户界面友好等优点。     

黑洞候选体MAXI J1535-571爆发期间的时变现象

利用“慧眼”(Hard X-ray Modulation Telescope, Insight-HXMT)卫星在2017年9月对黑洞候选体MAXI J1535-571的观测数据,研究了该源在爆发期内的时变现象.当源处于不同的爆发谱态时,功率密度谱的谱型存在明显差异.在硬中间态,有明显的限带噪声(band-limited noise)成分和QPO (Quasi-Periodic Oscillation)成分.分析结果表明:低频限带噪声的特征频率随能量的变化呈现正相关,即软能段光子的特征频率小于硬能段光子的特征频率. 0.1–0.5 Hz频率区间的限带噪声RMS (Root Mean Square)谱在硬中间态和软中间态均出现峰值,且在高能端存在差异,可能是主导噪声RMS的能谱成分占比不同.当谱态由硬中间态过渡到软中间态时, C型QPO的RMS谱保持相似趋势,但限带噪声RMS谱存在谱态依赖现象,暗示着噪声和QPO有不同的起源机制.     

实测大气折射值的新方法

简单评述了现有各种版本的大气折射表所依据的理论基础和编制方法，指出了实测大气折射值、建立随地形而异的实测大气折射模型的必要性和应具备的基本条件；在分析了长期以来不能直接测定大气折射值的原因后，介绍了一种在不同方向精确测定大气折射值和建立观测点大气折射模型的新方法，以及所依赖的观测仪器具备的特性，最后给出了用实测数据建立的本地大气折射模型。