安康水电站精细化降水预报的检验

降水精细化数值预报模式的发展是开展精细化降水预报业务的理想途径,而模式本地化中的误差评估是当前开展业务应用的重要环节。基于此,运用误差分析、晴雨预报准确率、降水TS评分方法评估陕西精细化数值预报攻关团队提供的2016年5月1日~9月30日安康水电站降水预报。结果表明：随着降水时效的增长,降水的预报准确率呈减小趋势;大雨以上的降水过程预报较好且未出现漏报,但量值与实况有差异,预报值小于实况值;20时起报的预报准确率大于08时起报的准确率且夜间的高于白天;降水日数多的月份TS评分预报准确率高于降水日数少的月份。比较安康和石泉的结果发现,安康的预报准确率明显优于石泉,主要原因是安康降水日数比石泉多,且大的降水过程比石泉少。逐1 h、3 h的72 h以内的降水预报可以为安康水电厂水利调度提供参考。     

Geographic Patterns of Craft Breweries at the Intraurban Scale

This article examines the intraurban geography of craft breweries in ten cities across the United States. First, through an exhaustive literature review, we outline both supply- and demand-side factors that might cause craft breweries to cluster. Second, we empirically test whether these establishments tend to cluster within cities using spatial statistical techniques. Many communities are attempting to support the establishment of more craft breweries as a way to boost tourism and economic development. The findings from this article aid in this discussion by providing insights into how craft brewers locate and the factors that could influence their location decision behavior. Our findings suggest that craft brewers do in fact cluster. There are both supply and demand factors responsible. On the supply side, the collaborative environment within the industry and the artisan nature of the industry's products allows for benefits of clustering to outweigh the costs associated with this behavior. On the demand side, the emergence of “brewery districts” allows individual brewers to enjoy the reputation benefits associated with the district in terms of increased foot traffic from locals and visitors looking to sample a variety of beers.     

Trend analysis of major hydroclimatic variables in the Langat River basin,Malaysia

Trend analyses of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall, air temperature, and streamflow were performed using Mann‐Kendall test within the Langat River basin to identify gradual trends and abrupt shifts for 1980 − 2010. Annual rainfall showed an increasing trend in upstream flow, a combination of decreasing and increasing trends in middle stream flow, and a decreasing trend in downstream flow. Monthly rainfall in most months displayed an insignificant increasing trend upstream. Stations with significant increasing trends showed larger trends in summer than those of other seasons. However, they were similar to the trends observed in annual rainfall. Annual minimum air temperature showed a significant decreasing trend upstream and significant increasing trends in the middle stream and downstream areas. Annual maximum air temperature portrayed increasing trends in both upstream and middle stream areas, and a decreasing trend for the downstream area. Both monthly and seasonal maximum air temperatures exhibited an increasing trend midstream, whereas they demonstrated trends of both decreasing and/or increasing temperatures at upstream and downstream areas. Annual streamflow in upper, middle and lower catchment areas exhibited significant increasing trend at the rates of 0.036, 0.023 and 0.001 × 10³ m³/y at α = 0.01, respectively. Seasonal streamflow in the upstream, midstream and downstream areas displayed an increasing trend for spring (0.55, 0.33 and 0.013 m³/y respectively) and summer (0.51, 0.37, 0.018 m³/y respectively). The greatest magnitude of increased streamflow occurred in the spring (0.54 m³/y). Significant increasing trends of monthly streamflow were noticed in January and August, but insignificant trends were found in May, September and November at all stations. Annual streamflow records at the outlet of the basin were positively correlated with the annual rainfall variable. This study concludes that the climate of the Langat River basin has been getting wetter and warmer during 1980‐2010.     

Generating urban road intersection models from low-frequency GPS trajectory data

Detailed real-time road data are an important prerequisite for navigation and intelligent transportation systems. As accident-prone areas, road intersections play a critical role in route guidance and traffic management. Ubiquitous trajectory data have led to a recent surge in road map reconstruction. However, it is still challenging to automatically generate detailed structural models for road intersections, especially from low-frequency trajectory data. We propose a novel three-step approach to extract the structural and semantic information of road intersections from low-frequency trajectories. The spatial coverage of road intersections is first detected based on hotspot analysis and triangulation-based point clustering. Next, an improved hierarchical trajectory clustering algorithm is designed to adaptively extract the turning modes and traffic rules of road intersections. Finally, structural models are generated via K-segment fitting and common subsequence merging. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently handle low-frequency, unstable trajectory data and accurately extract the structural and semantic features of road intersections. Therefore, the proposed method provides a promising solution for enriching and updating routable road data.     

Can MODIS Detect Trends in Aerosol Optical Depth over Land?

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) sensor onboard NASA's Aqua satellite has been collecting valuable data about the Earth system for more than 14 years, and one of the benefits of this is that it has made it possible to detect the long-term variation in aerosol loading across the globe. However, the long-term aerosol optical depth(AOD)trends derived from MODIS need careful validation and assessment, especially over land. Using AOD products with at least 70 months' worth of measurements collected during 2002–15 at 53 Aerosol Robotic Network(AERONET) sites over land,Mann–Kendall(MK) trends in AOD were derived and taken as the ground truth data for evaluating the corresponding results from MODIS onboard Aqua. The results showed that the AERONET AOD trends over all sites in Europe and North America, as well as most sites in Africa and Asia, can be reproduced by MODIS/Aqua. However, disagreement in AOD trends between MODIS and AERONET was found at a few sites in Australia and South America. The AOD trends calculated from AERONET instantaneous data at the MODIS overpass times were consistent with those from AERONET daily data, which suggests that the AOD trends derived from satellite measurements of 1–2 overpasses may be representative of those from daily measurements.     

基于时空统计降尺度的淮河流域夏季分月降水概率预测

针对淮河流域水资源短缺、洪涝、干旱并存的问题,基于国家气候中心第二代季节气候模式的集合回报数据集(1991—2014年),建立时空相结合的统计降尺度模型,提前1—3个月预测该流域夏季分月降水,应用ROC(relative operating characteristics)评分评估比较了不同集合预测方案的预测技巧。交叉检验结果表明,样本数取18、20、22、28时,集合预测方案对3、4、5月三个起报时次预测的夏季各月降水技巧预测均高于模式预测技巧。2015—2017年的独立样本检验进一步表明该统计降尺度模型能够明显降低3月、5月起报的6月和8月的降水预测偏差。认为可尝试将该降尺度方法应用于淮河流域夏季降水预测及进一步的流域水文预测。     

低空急流识别及急流轴自动绘制方法研究

低空急流对强对流天气的预报有重要意义。针对目前低空急流主要由手工绘制,存在效率低、易受主观因素影响的问题,本文基于MICAPS高空全要素填图数据中的探空站风场信息,提出了一种低空急流自动识别及急流轴自动绘制算法。算法从急流轴定义出发,依次从风速、风向、探空站分布、中轴线位置等多个角度对低空急流轴进行检测。经过传递闭包聚类、急流轴关键点提取、不同风向急流轴关键点归并、急流轴平滑等步骤,实现了低空急流自动识别及急流轴的自动绘制。测试表明,在识别的基础上自动绘制的急流轴具有位置准确、形态自然、能完整反映急流水汽输送路径、适应复杂环境低空急流等特点。在291组测试数据中未发现空报,准确击中率达到94.96%。     

检验全球数值预报模式的相似度等指标

本文依照泛函形式并考虑了球面经纬网格的特点,定义了用于全球数值模式效果检验的指标:距离、距平相似度和倾向相似度,给出了相应的计算方法,并以全球WRF模式为例,检验了该模式的中期预报效果。所得结论如下:指标距离、距平相似度和倾向相似度物理意义明确,易于理论分析,考虑了球面经纬网格的特点,检验准确度高,具有普适性,能方便应用于球面经纬网格输出的数值模式检验。指标距离、距平相似度的检验结果分别与传统检验指标均方根误差、距平相关系数相一致,该指标还可直接用于向量场(如风场)的整体检验。本文的全球WRF模式所做的检验表明,对本文个例,该模式的全球500 hPa中期天气形势预报在第7 d及之内皆可用,5 d及之内预报效果更佳。     

地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统设计与实现

地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统是基于国省统一的CIMISS数据环境,准实时生成日、候、旬、月、年值等统计产品的业务系统,能够满足用户对准实时质控后地面气象资料统计值的业务需求。本文主要介绍地面气象资料实时历史一体化统计加工系统的开发,从软件的需求分析、统计方法、功能实现、关键技术等方面阐述了如何在技术上实现地面气象资料一体化统计加工系统。通过运行策略配置,实现了系统定时自动运行,进一步丰富了CIMISS系统地面气象资料的产品库。     

衡阳风变化及风能蕴藏量评估

利用衡阳9站1970—2016年测风数据,通过气候倾向率分析风速年、年代际变化,M-K检验风速突变年份,运用有效风能密度评估各区域风能蕴藏量,其结论如下:衡阳风速总体呈下降趋势,衡山减少最明显,风速减少极显著区域未出现突变;低海拔区风速集中在0～3. 4 m/s(85. 8%),1991—2016年风频两极分化,低速及高速区增多,中间出现断层。南岳山风速范围广,2005—2016年强风频区有缺失,主风频在3～5区间;2010年全面采用高灵敏度自动测风仪,低海拔区静风迅速减少;按照有效风能密度定义,南岳山风能丰富,低海拔区未达到可利用标准。