南京城区夏季低层逆温对人体舒适状况影响初探

利用2000年夏季南京志区地面气象要素和低层探空资料，分析了该夏季南京城区早、晚低层逆温的频率、厚度和强度变化特征，着重从统计角度研究了逆温的厚度、强度与城区地面温度、相对湿度变化的关系及对人体舒适状况的影响。结果表明：低层逆温对城区地面温湿变化及其幅度影响较大，当07时有逆温层时，08时至14时的温度增加幅度变大，相对温度减小幅度也变大，人体不适指数增加幅度变大；当19时有逆温层时，20时至23时温度减小幅度变小，相对湿度增加幅度也变小，人体不适指数减小幅度变小，并通过相关分析建立了人体舒适度指数与逆温强度之间的回归方程。     

On core surface flows inferred from satellite magnetic data

Satellite-data allows the magnetic field produced by the dynamo within the Earth’s core to be imaged with much more accuracy than previously possible with only ground-based data. Changes in this magnetic field can in turn be used to make some inferences about the core surface flow responsible for them. In this paper, we investigate the improvement brought to core flow computation by new satellite-data based core magnetic field models. It is shown that the main limitation now encountered is no longer the (now high) accuracy of those models, but the “non-modelled secular variation” produced by interaction of the non-resolvable small scales of the core flow with the core field, and by interaction of the (partly) resolvable large scales of the core flow with the small scales of the core field unfortunately masked by the crustal field. We show how this non-modelled secular variation can be taken into account to recover the largest scales of the core flow in a consistent way. We also investigate the uncertainties this introduces in core flows computed with the help of the frozen-flux and tangentially geostrophic assumptions. It turns out that flows with much more medium and small scales than previously thought are needed to explain the satellite-data-based core magnetic field models. It also turns out that a significant fraction of this flow unfortunately happens to be non-recoverable (being either “non-resolvable” because too small-scale, or “invisible”, because in the kernel of the inverse method) even though it produces the detectable “non-modelled secular variation”. Applying this to the Magsat (1980) to Ørsted (2000) field changes leads us to conclude that a flow involving at least strong retrograde vortices below the Atlantic Hemisphere, some less-resolved prograde vortices below the Pacific Hemisphere, and some poorly resolved (and partly non-resolvable) polar vortices, is needed to explain the 1980-2000 satellite-era average secular variation. The characteristics of the fraction of the secular variation left unexplained by this flow are also discussed.     

基于遥感技术的近30年中亚地区主要湖泊变化

在全球气候变暖的背景下,研究中亚干旱半干旱地区主要湖泊的变化不仅对内陆水资源管理和可持续发展有着重要意义,也为进一步研究湖泊变化对气候变化和人类活动的响应提供基础。获取1978年MSS、1989年TM、1998年TM及2010年ETM的同季相4期遥感图像数据,通过人工解译提取中亚地区7个湖泊信息,获得近30 a的湖泊面积变化;利用T/P和Envisat雷达高度计提取1992—2012年的湖泊水位信息;基于湖泊面积和水位的时空变化特征分析了湖泊变化的影响因素。结果表明:近30 a来,由于湖泊类型的不同,除萨雷卡梅什湖外的其他6个湖泊均出现不同程度的面积缩减;其中,平原尾闾湖面积变化最显著,高山封闭湖相对平稳,吞吐湖泊的面积变化相对复杂;湖泊的水位变化模式因流域和湖泊类型而异;高山封闭湖泊受气候的影响较大,而吞吐湖泊受人为因素影响显著。     

台湾东北部黑潮次表层水入侵的季节变化规律

台湾东北部,黑潮次表层水常年入侵东海陆架。但是黑潮次表层水入侵的季节变化规律,尚存在很多不明之处。本文基于2009至2011年间东海4个航次的CTD实测数据,研究了黑潮次表层水入侵东海过程的季节变化规律,发现:黑潮次表层水入侵在春末夏初开始加强,夏季最强,秋季开始减弱,冬季最弱。入侵的黑潮次表层水起源深度也随季节变化有所不同。另外,结果还表明黑潮次表层水入侵存在明显的短期变动。     

黄土高原表土磁化率与气候要素的定量关系研究

黄土高原地区已建立多个表土低频磁化率-气候转换函数,为黄土古气候定量重建提供了关键方法。但是表土磁化率变化的气候控制因素的系统研究尚未开展; 同时,低频磁化率部分受到沉积作用的影响,需要寻找气候意义更明确的指标。我们系统采集了黄土高原及周边地区的表土样品,运用相关、回归和因子分析等方法,研究了不同气候要素及其季节变化对表土磁化率和频率磁化率的控制作用。结果显示,湿度是控制黄土高原表土磁化率的主要因素,温度的影响相对较小; 降水的季节分配也有影响,月降水变率较小的地区磁化率较高。在此基础上,选择反映成壤磁性颗粒组分的频率磁化率,建立了频率磁化率-年均降水量的转换函数,为黄土古气候定量估算提供了新的途径。     

Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

应用GPS观测青藏高原东北缘应力场变化

采用各向同性弹性地球模型推导了地面位移场速率与地壳内任意点应力场变化的边界积分关系,同时利用青藏高原东北缘1999～2001年观测的GPS资料对观测区地壳深度为5 km和25 km的主应力和最大剪应力进行了计算分析.结果表明,青藏高原东北缘的主应力变化主要集中在祁连山断裂、海原断裂等,在1920～1954年间历史上发生过多次震级为7.0～8.5级强震的断裂附近,并具有主应力变化沿断层走向分布、最大剪应力沿断层走向交替变化等特征.     

Centennial to millennial geomagnetic secular variation

A time-varying spherical harmonic model of the palaeomagnetic field for 0–7 ka is used to investigate large-scale global geomagnetic secular variation on centennial to millennial scales. We study dipole moment evolution over the past 7 kyr, and estimate its rate of change using the Gauss coefficients of degree 1 (dipole coefficients) from the CALS7K.2 field model and by two alternative methods that confirm the robustness of the predicted variations. All methods show substantial dipole moment variation on timescales ranging from centennial to millennial. The dipole moment from CALS7K.2 has the best resolution and is able to resolve the general decrease in dipole moment seen in historical observations since about 1830. The currently observed rate of dipole decay is underestimated by CALS7K.2, but is still not extraordinarily strong in comparison to the rates of change shown by the model over the whole 7 kyr interval. Truly continuous phases of dipole decrease or increase are decadal to centennial in length rather than longer-term features. The general large-scale secular variation shows substantial changes in power in higher spherical harmonic degrees on similar timescales to the dipole. Comparisons are made between statistical variations calculated directly from CALS7K.2 and longer-term palaeosecular variation models: CALS7K.2 has lower overall variance in the dipole and quadrupole terms, but exhibits an imbalance between dispersion in   g ¹₂  and   h ¹₂  , suggestive of long-term non-zonal structure in the secular variations.     

Climatic changes have led to significant expansion of endorheic lakes in Xizang (Tibet) since 1995

Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km² in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has significantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacier–lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions (decreased precipitation and increased temperatures) that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976–1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995–2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.