试论气候变化对我国水资源的影响

从水文系统的降水、蒸发、径流和土壤水分及水资源系统供水、需水和水资源管理等方面综述了区域水文水资源对气候变化的响应,提出了作者的看法。     

中国季降水量的气候噪声和潜在可预报性估计

利用中国130个测站1961—2004年的日降水量资料,使用低频白噪声延伸法和方差分析法估计了中国季降水量的气候噪声方差和潜在可预报性。结果表明：中国季降水量的气候噪声方差由南向北、由沿海向内陆逐渐减小,且有明显的季节变化,夏季最高,其次是春秋季,冬季最小,而且内陆的季节变化比东南沿海的季节变化显著。季降水量的潜在可预报性有较大的季节和区域差异,但总体来说,全国大部分地区的季降水量是潜在可预报的。以绝对误差小于均方差0.68倍作为预测正确标准,全国大部分地区季降水量的预报正确率上限为50%-60%。     

文登市农村违法建房存在问题初探

农村土地违法建房问题存在多、乱、差、杂等特点。文登市积极采取应对措施,深入分析原因,认为经济利益驱使、规划不合理和引导不力、宣传监管乏力是造成这一问题的主要原因。建议进一步加大法律法规宣传力度、加大国土资源执法巡查力度、增加规划意识、建立农村宅基地有偿使用制度和农民宅基地使用权制度。     

渭北矿区地表裂陷地质灾害成因及防治

讨论了渭北矿区地表裂陷的成因、危害、防治的方法和意义。指出地震、活动性断裂、人类采矿活动、地下水活动等地质作用和煤层埋藏地质条件是矿区地表裂陷地质灾害的主要原因。矿山有关部门在减灾、防灾方面应采取的措施。     

西藏羌北高原多格错仁盐湖中更新世晚期以来的环境演化记录

通过对西藏藏北高原多格错仁盐湖湖岸3101cm高度剖面进行地形地貌、地层沉积特征、矿物学特征及粒度、频率磁化率等气候环境变化指标的分析研究发现,整个剖面反映出大致6个较大的气候变化过程：233. 3kaBP～223. 5kaBP气候波动较大,总体趋势气候趋于干冷,期间出现过两次较温暖气候,之后气候逐渐变冷;在223. 5kaBP～213. 6kaBP总体变化为气温大幅度上升,但在期间有一次较大的相对冷干过程;213. 6kaBP～170kaBP之间总体变化气候趋于变冷,中间有2次明显的气候变暖湿过程及两次冷干过程;170kaBP～117. 1kaBP气候转为明显湿热;117. 1kaBP～75. 6kaBP气候变化趋势明显降低;75. 6kaBP～56. 7kaBP气候又明显上升达到湿热状态。以上气候波动规律与极地冰芯记录及深海氧同位素记录的古气候波动规律有很好的一致性,同时本盐湖区与柴达木盆地察尔汗盐湖区的CH0310钻孔及青海湖南岸二郎剑阶地的 QH 86钻孔所揭示的中更新世晚期以来的气候变化的分析对比,发现西藏羌北的多格错仁盐湖区与青海的察尔汗盐湖区及青海湖湖区在更新世中晚期以来的气候环境变迁存在极好的可比性,说明青藏高原的气候演化在中晚更新世以来基本具有一致性,在时间上的微小超前与滞后具有区域上的细微变化,说明气候变迁在不同的区域又具有各自的独特性。     

中国气候区划新方案

根据全国609个气象站1971-2000年的日气象观测资料,遵循地带性与非地带性相结合、发生同一性与区域气候特征相对一致性相结合、综合性和主导因素相结合、自下而上和自上而下相结合、空间分布连续性与取大去小等5个基本原则,在充分吸纳已有气候区划基本理论与区划方法的基础上,参照中国科学院《中国自然地理》编辑委员会制定的气候区划三级指标体系,对我国气候进行重新区划;结果将我国划分为12个温度带、24个干湿区、56个气候区。与先前区划方案相比发现:20世纪70年代以来,中国气候带、区的总体格局并未发生明显变化,但一些重要的气候分界线却出现了一定程度的移动。其中亚热带北界与暖温带北界均出现了北移,北方地区的半湿润与半干旱分界线也出现了不同程度的东移与南扩,同时中温带、暖温带、北亚热带和中亚热带的三级气候区也出现了一定程度的变动;这种变化可能主要是因为20世纪80年代以后我国大多数地区出现不同程度的增暖及北方一些区域出现干旱化而引起的;且与本区划所采用的资料站点和部分区划原则有一定更新有关。     

天气学和天气预报的研究进展

全面回顾了75年来中国科学院大气物理研究所科研人员在气团、锋面、梅雨、寒潮、阻高、副高、暴雨、高低空急流、亚澳季风区内涡旋和对流等现象的天气学研究进展及其在不同时期所取得的研究成果,总结了在短中期天气预报及短期气候预测领域在模式发展和改进以及在数值模拟等方面所取得的成就和进展.同时指出模式发展和预测在中国数值天气预报及短期气候预测方面所做出的贡献.     

Ground Surface Temperature History in Poland in the 16th–20th Centuries Derived from the Inversion of Geothermal Profiles

Ground Surface Temperature (GST) history in Poland was derived from the inversion of temperature-depth profiles in over 20 wells. Temperature histories for the period 1500 A.D. through 1977 A.D. agree well with the instrumental record of the surface-air temperature available for the last two centuries. A statistical correlation of the reconstructed histories (from the well temperature data) with the instrumental record (air temperature) from the homogeneous Warsaw series is high (>0.8). Functional space inversion (FSI) of the temperature data with depth shows that beginning in the early 19th century, temperatures warmed by 0.9 ± 0.1°C following a long period of colder climate before. The last number could be a minimal as higher warming was calculated using a simple model based on surface temperature for the observational period (homogenized Warsaw surface temperature series, Lorenc, 2000) and POM (pre-observational mean; Harris and Chapman, 1998) of –1.53^oC below the 1951–1980 mean temperature level.     

Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.