断层带爆炸裂隙区范围及裂纹扩展长度的研究

常用求算岩石内爆炸裂隙区半径的计算公式中忽略了冲击波的作用、粉碎区的存在以及爆生气体的准静态作用。醉对该公式进行修正后并引和断层带应力波衰减指数α，并对尖力波损伤后的裂隙区的扩展长度进行分析计算，从而得出：考虑“预报伤”作用的爆炸裂纹长度大于不考虑“预损伤”情况下的裂纹长度。     

包络地形和重力波拖曳对区域气候模拟效果的影响

用NCAR区域气候模式(RegCM2)的数值试验，研究了包络地形和地形重力波拖曳作用对1991年5、6月份中国区域内气候模拟效果的影响。通过试验结果的对比分析发现，在模式中引入地形重力波拖曳作用可在一定程度上改善模式对气候系统和要素的模拟效果，使模拟结果更符合气候实况。包络地形对模拟结果也有一定的改善，但对于细网格的区域气候模式(RCM)来说，其效果不如重力波拖曳明显。不论是地形重力波拖曳还是包络地形，在模式积分的初期，它们的作用并不明显，随着积分时间的增长，它们对模拟结果的影响程度增大。     

宁波市气候变化对水资源的影响

通过对宁波市水资源有关参数的计算，了解宁波水资源状况，根据工农业和生活用水，经济发展规划对水资源的需求，分析了宁波市气候和气候变化对水资源的影响，为更好地促进水资源向可利用水资源的转化，利用和开发好水资源提出了建议。     

我国期气候预测的业务技术发展

概述了我国短期气候预测技术和业务现代化发展的历史，分析了“九五”以来我国短期气候预测技术的新进展，探讨了未来短期气候预测技术发展的几个主要问题。     

广西两系杂交稻制种安全期气候分析

根据两系杂交水稻制种对气象条件的要求 ,利用广西 80多站的气象资料 ,统计分析了广西各地两系杂交水稻制种的安全期 ,提出了广西杂交水稻安全制种应注意的一些气候问题     

An Analysis Of Secondary Circulations And Their Effects Caused By Small-Scale Surface Inhomogeneities Using Large-Eddy Simulation

A parallelized large-eddy simulation model has been used to investigate the effects of two-dimensional, discontinuous, small-scale surface heterogeneities on the turbulence structure of the convective boundary layer.Heterogeneities had a typical size of about the boundary-layer heightz_i. They were produced by a surface sensible heat flux pattern ofchessboard-type and of strong amplitude as typical, e.g., for the marginalice zone. The major objectives of this study were to determinethe effects of such strong amplitude heat flux variations and to specify theinfluence of different speeds and directions of the background wind.Special emphasis has been given to investigate the secondary circulations induced by the heterogeneities by means of three-dimensional phase averages.Compared with earlier studies of continuous inhomogeneities, the same sizeddiscontinuous inhomogeneities in this study show similar but stronger effects.Significant changes compared with uniform surface heating are only observedwhen the scale of the inhomogeneities is increased to z_i. Especially the vertical energy transport is much more vigorous and even the mean emperature profile shows a positive lapse rate within the whole mixed layer. However, the effects are not directly caused by the different shape of the inhomogeneities but can mainly be attributed to the large amplitude of the imposed heat flux,as it is typical for the partially ice covered sea during cold air outbreaks.The structure of the secondary flow is found to be very sensitive to the wavelength and shape of the inhomogeneities as well as to the heatflux amplitude, wind speed and wind direction. The main controlling parameter is the near-surface temperature distribution and the related horizontal pressure gradient perpendicular to the main flow direction. The secondary flow varies from a direct circulation with updraughts mainly above the centre of the heated regions to a more indirect circulation with updraughts beneath the centre and downdraughts above it. For background winds larger than 2.5 m s^–1 a roll-like circulation pattern is observed.From previous findings it has often been stated that moderate backgroundwinds of 5 m s^–1 eliminate all impacts of surface inhomogeneitiesthat could potentially be produced in realistic landscapes. However, this studyshows that the effects caused by increasing the wind speed stronglydepend on the wind direction relative to the orientation of theinhomogeneities. Secondary circulations remain strong, even for abackground wind of 7.5 m s^–1, when the wind direction is orientatedalong one of the two diagonals of the chessboard pattern. On the otherhand, the effects of inhomogeneities are considerably reduced, even undera modest background wind of 2.5 m s^–1, if the wind direction isturned by 45°. Mechanisms for the different flow regimesare discussed.     

绥化电视发射塔工程场址地震基本烈度影响因素的探讨

采用同一地震带中两个不同潜在震源区的统计模型，讨论了当潜在震源区分方法不同时对场址基本烈度的影响。     

近50年浙江省旱、涝气候变化及特征

用1951－1999年资料详细研究了浙江省的年、季的旱、涝气候变化特征。主要结果：浙江省夏季降水量表现出稳定的增加，其他季节（特别是秋季）的降水有不同程度的减少。每年在浙江省出现大范围旱（或涝）的可能性很大（约80％）。1985年以后浙江每年都要发生大范围的季节性的旱涝。浙江省年、季降水量旱涝有年代际变化。旱、涝发生的气候频率已经有了明显的变化，特别是夏季。奇异谱分析与最大熵谱分析的结果表明夏季、秋季与年的降水量有明显的长期趋势变化，它们还有10年左右的周期，而冬季降水的2年周期振荡特别明显。     

近45年吐鲁番地区气候变化趋势

分析了1954-1998年吐鲁番地区各县（市）气温、降水、无霜期、大风日数、酷热日数、寒冷日数、各界限积温、日平均气温≥0℃生长期、气温日较差等气候要素的变化趋势。     

中卫-同心断裂带全新世古地震研究

通过对中卫 -同心断裂带中段和西段 7个新探槽的古地震研究 ,并结合前人对中段古地震的研究结果 ,分析确定出 140 0 0a以来中卫 -同心断裂带共发生 6次古地震事件。其中仅有 1次是破裂全带的 ,发生在晚更新世末 ,其它都为全新世以来的次级破裂事件 ,3次破裂中段 ,两次破裂西段。公元 170 9年 7 级历史地震只破裂中段 ,因此推断只破裂中段或西段的古地震震级约为 7 级左右 ;破裂全带的古地震震级应为 8级左右。从时间上看 ,这 6次事件的分布是不均匀的 ,但没有明显的丛集现象