中国东北全新世干湿状况的演变

通过综合分析植物花粉,沙土埋藏土壤,泥炭形成与发展,沙丘活动历史,黄土状土堆积和黑土发育等多种资料表明,我国东北地区的湿润程度或土壤水分含量在５ｋａ ＢＰ以前的早中全新世较低,中晚全新世不能增加,早中全新世最干燥时段出现的＾１４Ｃ年代９－８ｋａ ＢＰ,中晚全新世湿润时期可能是最近的２ｋａ,近现代气候比过去１０ｋａ平均状况湿润。     

Tree-Ring δD as an Indicator of Asian Monsoon Intensity

Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of meteoric water are known to correlate with surface air temperature, except in tropical areas. This relationship has been described using a number of terms corresponding to specific observations, such as latitude, altitude and seasonal effects. However, these temperature effects do not seem to apply to precipitation in monsoonal areas of Asia. Questions have been raised as to whether the isotopic composition of meteoric water can be used to reconstruct paleomonsoon intensity. Tree rings of two modern spruce trees (Picea meyeri) and a 10,000-yr-old timber (Picea jezoensis) were analyzed for hydrogen isotopic composition. On average, the older tree is depleted in deuterium by 45‰ compared to the modern trees. We attribute this isotopic depletion to the strength of summer monsoons, which were more intense in the early Holocene than at present. Although this study is not definitive, it suggests that paleomonsoon intensity can be reconstructed by direct or proxy methods that yield the oxygen or hydrogen isotopic composition of meteoric water.     

Long-Term Variations of Potential Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen of the Japan Sea Proper Water

Observed potential temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen are analyzed to elucidate their variations during the period from 1958 to 1996 at Stn. P (37°43′ N, 134°43′ E) and from 1965 to 1996 at Stn. H (40°30′ N, 137°40′ E) in the Japan Sea. At Stn. P, increases of the potential temperature for the period are found below 800 m depth with the largest value of 0.16 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. At Stn. H, the potential temperature increased below 500 m depth. The increase rate has the largest value of 0.50 ± 0.18°C per century at 500 m depth and it is 0.30 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. The concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased around 800 m depth at Stn. P. At Stn. H, they increased above 800 m depth. On the other hand, they decreased below 1200 m depth at both stations. The layer of the dissolved oxygen minimum has deepened in these decades. These features appearing in the distributions of temperature and dissolved oxygen are successively simulated by a vertical one-dimensional advection-diffusion model including consumption of dissolved oxygen and termination of the deep water supply. These results suggest that the supply of the Japan Sea Proper Water into the deep layer, which is cold and rich in dissolved oxygen, has been decreasing for the last four decades. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

长江流域降水变化及其趋势演变

本文对中国长江流域降水趋势进行了分析.指出对月降水量而言,20世纪后50年不同区域出现1不胃的降水趋势变化特征.趋势插补法研究表明中国降水时空分布趋势十分明显.对长江流域长期降水资料分析研究指出夏季月份降水时间更集中,而对年降水而言在一些站则表现出明显的周期变化.     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

近50年来内蒙古查干淖尔湖水量变化及其成因分析

内蒙古查干淖尔湖是位于季风边缘区干旱与半干旱过渡带的封闭湖泊,对气候变化响应极为敏感.利用1958-2010年的查干淖尔湖21期遥感影像以及湖泊流域1955-2010年的3个气象站点和1个水文站点的气温、降水、蒸发和径流等数据,分析查干淖尔湖近50余年的湖泊水量、面积/水位波动及其原因.结果表明,近50年来在区域气候暖干化的背景下,查干淖尔湖不断萎缩,流域生态环境退化.1958-2010年湖泊容积以2×106m3/a的速度锐减66.9%(从124.1×106m3降到41.1×106m3),湖泊面积缩小73.3%(从105.3 km2降到28.1 km2),平均缩减速度为1.8 km2/a;流域年均气温上升了2.5℃,年降水量下降了36.6 mm.湖泊水量与流域气温和蒸发量显著负相关.查干淖尔湖分为东西两部分,中间由天然堤坝相连,东湖在水闸的人为控制下水位波动范围不超过1 m.西湖水位波动则相对剧烈,湖面下降7.6 m,于2002年彻底干涸,湖盆裸露,已成为盐尘暴、沙尘暴源地.     

太湖叶绿素a同化系统敏感性分析

太湖叶绿素a同化系统对于不同参数的敏感性将直接影响到该系统能否精确的估算太湖叶绿素a的浓度分布.利用2009年4月21日环境一号卫星(HJ-1B CCD2)影像数据反演太湖叶绿素a浓度场信息.以此作为背景场信息,结合基于集合均方根滤波的太湖叶绿素a同化系统,分析和评价了样本数目、同化时长、背景场误差、观测误差和模型误差对于同化系统性能的影响.结果表明:从计算成本、系统运行时间和同化效果等方面分析,当集合样本数目达到30~40左右时同化系统取得了较好的结果;同化系统对于背景场误差的估计变化不是很敏感,即初始场的估计是否准确对于同化系统的性能影响不是很大;同化系统对于模型误差和观测误差的变化较为敏感,不同的测试点位由于水体动力学性质不一,其敏感性的表现形式有所差异;利用数据同化方法可以有效地估算太湖叶绿素a浓度.     

The influence of tectonic subsidence on volcaniclastic sedimentation: The Cretaceous upper Daeri Member,Wido Island,Korea

The Daeri Member, a Cretaceous volcanic–sedimentary succession, can be divided into lower, middle, and upper parts based on vertical changes in its lithologic characters. The lower Daeri Member is composed of siliciclastic deposits formed in a semi‐arid floodplain environment, which is overlain by the middle Daeri Member consisting mainly of andesite lava flow. After the emplacement of the andesite, activities of intrabasinal normal faults created accommodation on hanging wall blocks together with the development of intrabasinal topographic relief. The upper Daeri Member occurs only in hanging wall blocks and is composed of rhyolitic volcaniclastic sediments formed during an explosive volcanic eruption. Following the eruption, owing to semi‐arid climatic conditions and the destruction of vegetation, the eruptive materials were easily remobilized and deposited by episodic sediment gravity flows, resulting in deposition of the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits with sheet‐like geometry. Away from the intrabasinal normal faults, the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits show a decrease in grain size together with changes in inferred depositional processes from debris flows to hyperconcentrated flows and supercritical sheetfloods. This suggests that the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits were stacked on alluvial fan environments induced by intrabasinal topographic relief associated with normal fault activities. In addition, episodic movement of the faults gave rise to periodic fluctuation of the accommodation and an increase in gradient of the alluvial fan surface, resulting in the development of coarsening‐upward trends in the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits. The development of the alluvial fan and the coarsening‐upward trends indicate that dynamic tectonic subsidence and concomitant changes in the intrabasinal physiographic relief influenced the depositional processes and sizes of the transported volcaniclastic sediments of the upper Daeri Member. Thus, it is necessary to carefully observe tectonic signatures in volcaniclastic successions, particularly the syneruptive lithofacies, in order to reconstruct the tectonic and volcanic histories of receiving basins.     

Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,China, 1986–2013

Climate and land‐use changes could strongly affect wind erosion and in turn cause a series of environmental problems. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess potential wind erosion rate (PWER) response to climate and land‐use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River (NIMRYR), China. The watershed of NIMRYR suffers from serious wind erosion hazards, and over recent decades, wind erosion intensity and distribution has changed, following climate and land‐use changes. To understand these processes in the NIMRYR watershed, the Integrated Wind Erosion Modelling System (IWEMS) and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) were used to calculate the PWER under different climate conditions and land‐use scenarios, and to assess the influences of climate and land‐use changes on the PWER. The results show the PWER in the whole watershed had a significant declining trend from 1986 to 2013. The results of the relationship among PWER, climate change, and land‐use changes showed that climate change was the dominant control on the PWER change in this watershed. Compared to the period 1986–1995, the average PWER decreased 23.32% and 64.98% as a result of climate change in the periods 1996–2005 and 2006–2013, respectively. In contrast with climate change, the effects of land‐use changes on the average PWER were much lower, and represented a change in PWER of less than 3.3% across the whole watershed. The study method we used could provide some valuable reference for wind erosion modelling, and the research results should help climate and land‐use researchers to develop strategies to reduce wind erosion. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned