青海省东部大杜鹃的始绝鸣日期对气候变化的响应

选取青海省4个农业气象观测站的大杜鹃始、绝鸣物候期及气候资料,分析了物候期变化及其对气候变化的响应情况。结果表明: 青海地形复杂且各地气象条件不同,使得大杜鹃自然物候现象存在明显的地域性。在温度、日照和降水的共同影响下,除诺木洪始鸣期有不明显推迟趋势外,其他3站均有提早趋势;绝鸣期均有推迟的趋势;始、绝鸣期间隔日数均有延长的趋势。大杜鹃始、绝鸣期的变化与气候变暖的趋势有一定的对应关系,说明动物物候期对气候变暖能作出一定的响应。     

近50年来黑河山区汇流区温度及降水变化趋势

利用有关水文气象观测资料、史料和树轮资料,对黑河山区汇流区降水近50年来的变化特征及其与全球气候变暖的对应关系、变化的可能成因及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：黑河山区汇流区降水对全球气候变暖响应比较明显,近50年来黑河山区汇流区降水随全球气温升高呈缓慢增加的趋势。由于西太平洋副热带高压与全球气温变化有着密切的关系,而西太平洋副热带高压的增强和扩大有利于东亚夏季风向北推进至更北,从而使祁连山中西部降水增加。因此,总体来说,全球气候的变暖有利于黑河山区汇流区降水的增加。目前,黑河山区汇流区正处于1980年代开始的历史上有资料记载以来的第5个温暖期和第3个暖湿期,预计在相当一段时期内,黑河山区汇流区降水将随着全球气候的进一步变暖,继续维持这种缓慢增长的状况。     

Tree-Ring δD as an Indicator of Asian Monsoon Intensity

Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of meteoric water are known to correlate with surface air temperature, except in tropical areas. This relationship has been described using a number of terms corresponding to specific observations, such as latitude, altitude and seasonal effects. However, these temperature effects do not seem to apply to precipitation in monsoonal areas of Asia. Questions have been raised as to whether the isotopic composition of meteoric water can be used to reconstruct paleomonsoon intensity. Tree rings of two modern spruce trees (Picea meyeri) and a 10,000-yr-old timber (Picea jezoensis) were analyzed for hydrogen isotopic composition. On average, the older tree is depleted in deuterium by 45‰ compared to the modern trees. We attribute this isotopic depletion to the strength of summer monsoons, which were more intense in the early Holocene than at present. Although this study is not definitive, it suggests that paleomonsoon intensity can be reconstructed by direct or proxy methods that yield the oxygen or hydrogen isotopic composition of meteoric water.     

唐山地区晚更新世以来的孢粉组合特征及其与邻区的对比

通过对唐山市复兴路十中旧址钻孔更新统上部和全新统部分的60 m岩芯的沉积物及92件孢粉样品的分析, 建立了4个组合带, 总结了唐山地区晚更新世以来的植被演替和气候变化: (1)孢粉带Ⅰ, 以针阔混交林-草原为主, 气候温暖湿润; (2)孢粉带Ⅱ, 以疏林草原为主, 气候寒冷干旱, 为晚更新世以来环境最为恶劣的时期; (3)孢粉带Ⅲa, 植被为针阔混交林-草原, 气候温暖湿润; (4)孢粉带Ⅲb, 发育暗针叶林-草原, 气候寒冷湿润; (5)孢粉带Ⅲc, 植被为疏林草原, 气候寒冷略干; (6)孢粉带Ⅳ, 发育针阔混交森林, 气候温暖湿润, 为晚更新世以来水热条件最佳的时期。通过与邻区及全球冰芯、深海沉积研究成果的对比分析, 探讨了华北平原晚更新世以来的气候变化特点: MIS3的温湿条件显著优于MIS2和MIS4, 达到间冰期气候, 与MIS5相似, 局部地区甚至超过MIS1; MIS2不是一个持续干冷的过程, 而是一个由湿冷逐渐转向干冷的过程。此成果对探讨华北平原第四纪地层划分、对比和气候演化提供了科学依据。     

Evaluating the Ability of CRCM5 to Simulate Mixed Precipitation

Precipitation episodes in the form of freezing rain and ice pellets represent natural hazards affecting eastern Canada during the cold season. These types of precipitation mainly occur in the St. Lawrence River valley and the Atlantic provinces of Canada. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), using a 0.11° horizontal grid mesh, to hindcast mixed precipitation when driven by reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for a 35-year period. In general, the CRCM5 simulation slightly overestimates the occurrence of freezing rain, but the geographical distribution is well reproduced. The duration of freezing rain events and accompanying surface winds in the Montréal region are reproduced by CRCM5. A case study is performed for an especially catastrophic freezing-rain event in January 1998; the model succeeds in simulating the intensity and duration of the episode, as well as the propitious meteorological environment. Overall, the model is also able to reproduce the climatology and a specific event of freezing rain and ice pellets.     

气候变化对湖库水环境的潜在影响研究进展

本文着重归纳气候变化对湖库热力特性、冰期、溶解氧、营养盐、浮游植物和水生植物等方面的影响规律,探讨气候变化对湖库水环境潜在影响的区域差异,讨论现有研究方法的优缺点和发展前景.研究表明,气候变暖对湖库物理过程的影响最为显著;热带草原气候和温带海洋性气候对于气候变暖和降雨变化的响应较其他气候类型突出;气候变化对湖库水环境的影响效果具有两面性.通过分析各气候类型中气候变暖对磷水平的潜在影响差异表明,亚热带季风气候的湖库更可能受气候变暖的影响趋于富营养状态.在今后研究中,建议深入开展各气候类型中区域性气候变化对湖库水环境影响的实例研究.     

气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响

本文根据我国的３０年的物候资料和气候资料的统计分析，论证了气温是影响中国木本植物物候的主要因子，在此基础上建立了物候与年平均气温的线性统计模式，又利用此模式分析计算了未来全球年平均气温升高０．５－２．０℃和未来大气中ＣＯ２浓度倍增而增暖情况下，我国主要木本植物物候期的大致变幅。     

Interpolating paleovegetation data with an artificial neural network approach

To drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), land surface boundary conditions like albedo and morphological roughness, which depend on the vegetation type present, have to be prescribed. For the late Quaternary there are some data available, but they are still sparse. Here an artificial neural network approach to assimilate these paleovegetation data is investigated. In contrast to a biome model the relation between climatological parameters and vegetation type is not based on biological knowledge but estimated from the available vegetation data and the AGCM climatology at the corresponding locations. For a test application, a data set for the modern vegetation reduced to the amount of data available for the Holocene climate optimum (about 6000 years B.P.) is used. From this, the neural network is able to reconstruct the complete global vegetation with a kappa value of 0.56. The most pronounced errors occur in Australia and South America in areas corresponding to large data gaps.     

Essai de définition

Abstract

The apprehension and elaboration of hydrological maps in parallel with the development of hydrogeological maps render inevitable at first a clarification of terminology, besides an examination of the whole problem concerning the mapping of the data relating to water. It states theoretical (limits and validity of mapping in this property) and practical problems (methods, cooperation and distribution of work between using specialists and organizations).