Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.     

基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

基于MODIS的植被指数变化研究及其与气候因子的关系分析

以2012年1~12月的MODIS 13Q1数据产品为基础,提取四川西南地区7市植被指数进行相关分析。基于各月植被指数,采用对比分析法,研究植被指数时空变化规律。同时,结合研究区内2012年月降水量和气温月平均值,选择多项式拟合法,对EVI,NDVI月平均值进行相关性分析,研究植被指数与气候因子的相关性。     

挪威的油气资源管理与投资环境

挪威是世界上重要的石油生产国和出口国,对世界石油市场供需稳定有重要影响。本文在项目工作基础上,简要讨论了挪威油气资源管理与投资环境,包括油气资源潜力与油气工业概况、油气管理体制与框架、主要管理机构、主要油气法律、油气权设置、主要油气管理政策、油气税制等。     

Development of a 3-D urbanization index using digital terrain models for surface urban heat island effects

This study assesses surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects during heat waves in subtropical areas. Two cities in northern Taiwan, Taipei metropolis and its adjacent medium-sized city, Yilan, were selected for this empirical study. Daytime and night time surface temperature and SUHI intensity of both cities in five heat wave cases were obtained from MODIS Land-Surface Temperature (LST) and compared. In order to assess SUHI in finer spatial scale, an innovated three-dimensional Urbanization Index (3DUI) with a 5-m spatial resolution was developed to quantify urbanization from a 3-D perspective using Digital Terrain Models (DTMs). The correlation between 3DUI and surface temperatures were also assessed. The results obtained showed that the highest SUHI intensity in daytime was 10.2 °C in Taipei and 7.5 °C in Yilan. The SUHI intensity was also higher than that in non-heat-wave days (about 5 °C) in Taipei. The difference in SUHI intensity of both cities could be as small as only 1.0 °C, suggesting that SUHI intensity was enhanced in both large and medium-sized cities during heat waves. Moreover, the surface temperatures of rural areas in Taipei and Yilan were elevated in the intense heat wave cases, suggesting that the SUHI may reach a plateau when the heat waves get stronger and last longer. In addition, the correlation coefficient between 3DUI and surface temperature was greater than 0.6. The innovative 3DUI can be employed to assess the spatial variation of temperatures and SUHI intensity in much finer spatial resolutions than measurements obtained from remote sensing and weather stations. In summary, the empirical results demonstrated intensified SUHI in large and medium-sized cities in subtropical areas during heat waves which could result in heat stress risks of residents. The innovative 3DUI can be employed to identify vulnerable areas in fine spatial resolutions for formulation of heat wave adaptation strategies.     

Cartographic Symbol Design Considerations for the Space–Time Cube

The cartographic representation of geographic phenomena in the space–time cube comes with special challenges and opportunities when compared with two-dimensional maps. While the added dimension allows the display of attributes that vary with time, it is difficult to display rapidly varying temporal data given the limited display height. In this study, we adapt 2D cyclic point symbols to construct 3D surfaces designed along a helical path for the space–time cube. We demonstrate how these complex?3D helical surfaces can display detailed data, including data reported daily over 100 years and data reported in four-hour intervals over a year. To create the point symbols, each value is plotted along the curve of a helix, with each turn of the helix representing one year or week, respectively. The model is modified by varying the radii from the time axis to all points using the attribute value, in these cases maximum daily temperature and four-hourly ridership, and then creating a triangulated surface from the resulting points. Using techniques common to terrain representation, we apply hue and saturation to the surface based on attribute values, and lightness based on relief shading. Multiple surfaces can be displayed in a space–time cube with a consistent time interval facing the viewer, and the surfaces or viewer perspective can be rotated to display synchronized variations. We see this method as one example of how cartographic design can refine or enhance operations in the space–time cube.     

城市局部气候分区对地表温度的影响 ——以大连市区为例

以大连市区建筑数据、SPOT 5和Landsat 8遥感数据为基础,运用局部气候带分类、地表温度反演方法,研究大连市局部气候带分区类型和特征,进而分析不同局部气候带对城市地表温度的影响。研究结果表明：①大连市建筑类型高度主要为低层建筑、多层建筑和中高层建筑,建筑密度为中密度和较高密度,甘井子区分布大量森林绿地,中山区具有丰富的公园绿地;②地表温度整体偏高,空间上呈现东高西低的趋势,其中半数以上地区地表温度达到28℃~31℃,并且有超过1%的地区地表温度大于38℃,该区域出现极端高温;③同一建筑高度上,密度越大的建筑区域,地表温度越高;同一建筑密度,多层建筑高度覆盖区地表温度较高。森林绿地地表温度最低,公园绿地和社区绿地地表温度几乎一致,附属绿地地表温度最高。     

基于ArcGIS与Python的气候评价工具箱的实现与应用

在研究和梳理气候评价技术方法和路线的基础上,利用ArcGIS与Python语言二次开发了一套气候评价工具箱,并以榆林市为例对该工具箱的实用性进行了验证.结果显示,该工具箱能够快速准确地辅助规划人员进行气候评价工作,大大提高了国土空间规划双评价的工作效率.     

降尺度方法在东亚气候预测中的应用

东亚气候变异十分复杂,全球动力预测系统对该地气候异常的预测能力偏低,如何进一步提高东亚地区气候异常的预测水平是一个非常重要的科学和现实需求问题。为此,近些年一系列的动力和统计降尺度方法得以发展。本文主要回顾了这些降尺度方法在东亚气候预测研究和实时预测中的应用。首先,文中简要介绍了我国目前应用于实时预测的全球动力预测系统及其性能,这是开展降尺度的科学和技术基础;在此基础上,从区域模式物理过程参数化方案的评估与遴选、区域模式在东亚气候预测中的应用两个方面,对于动力降尺度方法的发展和应用做了回顾;在统计降尺度的综述中,本文主要关注了东亚夏季汛期和冬季气候异常的预测,特别是针对东亚冬季气候异常,本文中提出了新的高效的统计与动力相结合的预测方法。最后,展望了短期气候预测需要进一步深入研究的科学和技术问题。     

东北地区水稻障碍型低温冷害变化对区域气候增暖的响应

利用东北地区153个气象站1961—2010年逐日气温资料,采用统计学方法分析了水稻障碍型低温冷害的气候变化特征及其对区域气候变暖的响应情况。结果表明,东北大部地区水稻障碍型低温冷害事件呈减少趋势,但区域性较为明显;障碍型低温冷害对关键发育期气温变化响应较为敏感,二者呈显著的负相关关系,表现为气温每升高1 ℃,东北地区冷害减少35个站次。东北地区关键发育期气温均呈上升趋势,但吉林西部地区障碍型冷害却随之增加,分析了关键发育期气温变率和气候变率,将其解释为局地障碍型冷害增加主要受气候变率增大的影响,逐日气温变率对其影响不大。