热带第四纪气候变化研究进展

南美洲、非洲、亚洲以及澳洲、太平洋地区近百个实例表明，全球热带第四纪气候的波动不明显，例如晚更新世MlSS5～MISS2期间的D／0暖波动和Hi冷波动、末次冰期盛期、新仙女木冷回返都很少见报道。但是，相对而言，冷波动比暖波动较易识别，末次冰期有较多实例，新冰期I、Ⅱ、Ⅲ也有表现，而末次间冰期及全新世大暖期则不易识别。温度与湿度变化的时空配合有一定的规律性。末次冰期之前，环境普遍趋湿。末次冰期之后，干湿的地域差异较大。全新世回暖，但是，干湿的地域分布与此前相反。气候变化的地域差异与气候的地带性有关。南美洲的暖波动主要出现在北部。非洲中部赤道多雨带的气候相对稳定。亚洲南部的印度干湿变化明显。东南亚诸岛冷期趋湿。     

20世纪中国气候变化研究

Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century,climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C.More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China,North China and Northeast China,and the warming in winter is most significant.Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century,regional differences are very distinct.In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,precipitation increased,while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased.Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO,PDO,and the others,but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions,and land use.The future climate change studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China's climate change and its main causes,since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.     

Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho

Seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in Africa. The manifestations of this are still to be seen. This paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. The case study of a mountainous village in southern Lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users – smallholder farmers – might make in response to the forecast. A participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. Results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. The case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups.     

The Terrestrial NPP Simulation in China since 6ka BP

1. IntroductionAccording to the reconstruction of paleo-temperature based on δ18 O data of ice core in theGreenland (see Jouzel et al., 1987; Grootes et al.,1993; Blunier and Brook, 2001), the current inter-glacial epoch, the Holocene, began at ca. 11.5 thou-sand years before present (ka BP). Multiple sources(pollen data, macrofossils) reveal that the summer cli-mate in the Northern Hemisphere was warmer in theearly to middle Holocene (MH) (ca. 8-6ka BP) relativeto the present climate. …     

Refining the pre-industrial atmospheric Pb isotope evolution curve in Europe using an 8000 year old peat core from NW Spain

Pb pollution has existed for several millennia and remains relevant today. By using peat cores as environmental archives it is possible to reconstruct this long history on a regional scale. This is a significant contribution to the findings from ice core records, the only other archive recording purely atmospheric additions. Without information that allows linking and comparison between sites regionally, within Europe and elsewhere, our ability to make coherent global models of the natural Pb cycle, and anthropogenic forcing of this cycle, is limited. In this respect, the characteristics of the Pb pre-pollution aerosol (PPA) are important to define globally. We characterize for the first time a PPA in Southern Europe with [Pb] = 0.78 ± 0.86 μg g^− 1, net Pb accumulation rates of 0.032 ± 0.030 mg m^− 2 y^− 1 and a ²⁰⁶Pb / ²⁰⁷Pb signature of 1.25470 ± 0.02575. This PPA Pb isotope signature is more radiogenic than that found thus far in Western and Northern Europe. Spain is a historically important mining site. Using three-isotope plots and a pool of potential Pb isotope signatures, a detailed source appointment of both natural and anthropogenic Pb sources was made. We found evidence of Saharan aridification and its termination ∼4400 BP and/or agricultural signals and strong local control (from rock and soil) of the Pb PPA. Human impact is first recorded at 3210 BP but does not exceed 50% of deposited Pb until 3005 BP. Mines in SE Spain dominate early Pb pollution history at this site. During the rise of Roman rule, contributions come from mines in N, NW and SW Spain with no strong indication of other European mining activities. In Medieval and Industrial times local contributions to the peat bog are reduced.     

Dust production and the release of iron oxides resulting from the aeolian abrasion of natural dune sands

Global dust trajectories indicate that signi?cant quantities of aeolian‐transported iron oxides originate in contemporary dryland areas. One potential source is the iron‐rich clay coatings that characterize many sand‐sized particles in desert dune?elds. This paper uses laboratory experiments to determine the rate at which these coatings can be removed from dune sands by aeolian abrasion. The coatings impart a red colour to the grains to which previous researchers have assigned variable geomorphological signi?cance. The quantities of iron removed during a 120 hour abrasion experiment are small (99 mg kg^?1) and dif?cult to detect by eye; however, high resolution spectroscopy clearly indicates that ferric oxides are released during abrasion and the re?ectance of the particles alters. One of the products of aeolian abrasion is ?ne particles (<10 µm diameter) with the potential for long distance transport. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of moisture cycling in the weathering of a quartz chlorite schist in a tropical environment: findings of a laboratory simulation

Long‐term weathering of a quartz chlorite schist via wetting and drying was studied under a simulated tropical climate. Cubic rock samples (15 mm × 15 mm × 15 mm) were cut from larger rocks and subjected to time‐compressed climatic conditions simulating the tropical wet season climate at the Ranger Uranium Mine in the Northern Territory, Australia. Fragmentation, moisture content and moisture uptake rate were monitored over 5000 cycles of wetting and drying. To determine the impact of climatic variables, five climatic regimes were simulated, varying water application, temperature and drying. One of the climatic regimes reproduced observed temperature and moisture variability at the Ranger Uranium Mine, but over a compressed time scale. It is shown that wetting and drying is capable of weathering quartz chlorite schist with changes expected over a real time period of decades. While wetting and drying alone does produce changes to rock morphology, the incorporation of temperature variation further enhances weathering rates. Although little fragmentation occurred in experiments, significant changes to internal pore structure were observed, which could potentially enhance other weathering mechanisms. Moisture variability is shown to lead to higher weathering rates than are observed when samples are subjected only to leaching. Finally, experiments were conducted on two rock samples from the same source having only subtle differences in mineralogy. The samples exhibited quite different weathering rates leading to the conclusion that our knowledge of the role of rock type and composition in weathering is insufficient for the accurate determination of weathering rates. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Postglacial topographic evolution of glaciated valleys: a stochastic landscape evolution model

The retreat of valley glaciers has a dramatic effect on the stability of glaciated valleys and exerts a prolonged influence on the subsequent fluvial sediment transport regime. We have studied the evolution of an idealized glaciated valley during the period following retreat of ice using a numerical model. The model incorporates a stochastic process to represent deep‐seated landsliding, non‐linear diffusion to represent shallow landsliding and an approximation of the Bagnold relation to represent fluvial sediment transport. It was calibrated using field data from several recent surveys within British Columbia, Canada. We present ensemble model results and compare them with results from a deterministic linear‐diffusion model to show that explicit representation of large landslides is necessary to reproduce the morphology and channel network structure of a typical postglacial valley. Our model predicts a rapid rate of fluvial sediment transport following deglaciation with a subsequent gradual decline, similar to that inferred for Holocene time. We also describe how changes in the model parameters affect the estimated magnitude and duration of the paraglacial sediment pulse. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation for the rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins in the Himalayan region

The impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation was studied for rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins located in the western Himalayan region. Hydrological processes were simulated under current climatic conditions using a conceptual hydrological model, which accounts for the rainfall–runoff, evaporation losses, snow and glacier melt. After simulations of daily observed streamflow (R²=0.90) for 6 years, the model was used to study the impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation. Based on the future projected climatic scenarios in the study region, three temperature scenarios (T+1, T+2 and T+3 °C) were adopted for quantifying the effect of warmer climate. The comparison of the effect of warmer climate on different types of basins indicated that the increase in evaporation was the maximum for snowfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, the annual evaporation for the rainfed basins increased by about 12%, whereas for the snowfed basins it increased by about 24%. The high increase of the evaporation losses would reduce the runoff. It was found that under a warmer climate, melt was reduced from snowfed basins, but increased from glacierfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, annual melt was reduced by about 18% for the studied snowfed basin, while it increased by about 33% for the glacierfed basin. Thus, impact of warmer climate on the melt from the snowfed and glacierfed basins was opposite to each other. The study suggests that out of three types of basins, snowfed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in water availability due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt. For a complex type of basin, the decrease in melt from seasonal snow may be counterbalanced by increase in melt from glaciers. However, on long-term basis, when the areal extent of glaciers will decrease due to higher melt rate, the water availability from the complex basins will be reduced.     

Origin of the high variability of water mineral content in the bedrock aquifers of Southern Madagascar

This study assesses the causes of the high spatial variability of the mineral content of groundwater in crystalline bedrock of Southern Madagascar. Although many kilometres from the coast and at a mean altitude of 400 m a.s.l, wells drilled in this area produce water with electrical conductivities in the range of 300–30,000 μS cm⁻¹ with a high spatial variability. Chemical and isotopic data are used to identify the processes involved in the groundwater mineralization. It is shown that the chemical composition of the groundwater in this region has its origin in (i) normal silicate and carbonate weathering reactions and (ii) input of marine salts, probably via rainfall recharge, modified by evapo-concentrative processes probably including precipitation and re-dissolution of secondary evaporites in the unsaturated zone. To obtain a better understanding of the spatial salinity distribution, well parameters such as yields, weathered zone thickness, weathered materials and morphological positions (upper slope, mid-slope, lower slope or valley bottom) are scrutinized.

A correlation was found between high salinity and low flow, shallow groundwater environments (flat hill tops, valley bottoms, weakly developed and clayey weathered zones) and between low salinity and high flow environments (granular, well-developed weathered zones and situation on valley slopes).