几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

柴达木盆地近40a气候变化及其对农业影响的研究

利用柴达木盆地6个代表站逐日平均气温、逐月降水资料以及逐日最低气温资料。对盆地40a来的气候变化特征进行分析。同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响。为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源。减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。     

从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

热带第四纪气候变化研究进展

南美洲、非洲、亚洲以及澳洲、太平洋地区近百个实例表明，全球热带第四纪气候的波动不明显，例如晚更新世MlSS5～MISS2期间的D／0暖波动和Hi冷波动、末次冰期盛期、新仙女木冷回返都很少见报道。但是，相对而言，冷波动比暖波动较易识别，末次冰期有较多实例，新冰期I、Ⅱ、Ⅲ也有表现，而末次间冰期及全新世大暖期则不易识别。温度与湿度变化的时空配合有一定的规律性。末次冰期之前，环境普遍趋湿。末次冰期之后，干湿的地域差异较大。全新世回暖，但是，干湿的地域分布与此前相反。气候变化的地域差异与气候的地带性有关。南美洲的暖波动主要出现在北部。非洲中部赤道多雨带的气候相对稳定。亚洲南部的印度干湿变化明显。东南亚诸岛冷期趋湿。     

The role of moisture cycling in the weathering of a quartz chlorite schist in a tropical environment: findings of a laboratory simulation

Long‐term weathering of a quartz chlorite schist via wetting and drying was studied under a simulated tropical climate. Cubic rock samples (15 mm × 15 mm × 15 mm) were cut from larger rocks and subjected to time‐compressed climatic conditions simulating the tropical wet season climate at the Ranger Uranium Mine in the Northern Territory, Australia. Fragmentation, moisture content and moisture uptake rate were monitored over 5000 cycles of wetting and drying. To determine the impact of climatic variables, five climatic regimes were simulated, varying water application, temperature and drying. One of the climatic regimes reproduced observed temperature and moisture variability at the Ranger Uranium Mine, but over a compressed time scale. It is shown that wetting and drying is capable of weathering quartz chlorite schist with changes expected over a real time period of decades. While wetting and drying alone does produce changes to rock morphology, the incorporation of temperature variation further enhances weathering rates. Although little fragmentation occurred in experiments, significant changes to internal pore structure were observed, which could potentially enhance other weathering mechanisms. Moisture variability is shown to lead to higher weathering rates than are observed when samples are subjected only to leaching. Finally, experiments were conducted on two rock samples from the same source having only subtle differences in mineralogy. The samples exhibited quite different weathering rates leading to the conclusion that our knowledge of the role of rock type and composition in weathering is insufficient for the accurate determination of weathering rates. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The dependence of response spectrum on the tectonic ambient shear stress field

Introduction The acceleration response spectrum and peak ground acceleration are the necessary and im-portant parameters in earthquake-resistant design at present. They are still active research field. With the increase of digital high accurate strong motion observation data, especially the earth-quakes of Loma Prieta (M=7.0) in 1989; Landers (M=7.3) in 1992; Big Bear (M=6.4) in 1994 and Northridge (M=6.7) in 1994 in USA; Kozani (M=6.6) earthquake and afteshocks in 1995 in Greece; Dinar…     

Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study

Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.     

三峡库区巫山县城新址岩质库岸再造预测

巫山县城新址位于西坪和大宁河两岸.组成该库段的基岩主要为泥岩、粉砂岩、泥灰岩等,岩性较软弱,且地质构造变动强烈,褶皱、断裂发育,岩层破碎,崩塌、滑坡分布较多,库岸再造问题严重;同时,岸坡再造又严重影响着新县城的规划和库岸的防护.因此把稳态坡形类比法应用于巫山县城新址基岩岸坡的再造预测,定量预测库岸的最终再造宽度,以指导新城的规划与建设.     

耦合模式长期积分资料所揭示的华南春季降水及环流特征的年际变化

利用一个全球海洋-大气-海冰耦合模式的300年控制试验资料,针对东亚区域雨带移动和大气环流特征演变的研究发现,华南春季降水是位于副热带的雨带的一部分,而且华南地区4、5月的降水异常具有明显的年际变化特征。在华南4、5月降水偏多年份,前期3月阿留申低压加强,北半球西风减弱,西太平洋海表温度出现负异常,导致冷暖空气在这里相遇造成降水异常。     

广西中短期极端温度客观预报方法研究

利用欧洲中心(ECMWF)数值预报产品和常规资料,应用MOS预报方法和多元线性回归技术,研究建立了广西90个站1~7d的最高、最低温度预报方程,试报检验效果较好,预报结果在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的,为业务提供了有效的省级客观预报指导产品,对误差特点进行了分析并提出了改进方法。