Snow water equivalent over Eurasia in the next 50 years projected by aggregated CMIP3 models

Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.     

1961-2008年中国西南地区极端气候变化幅度的海拔效应(英文)

A total of 12 indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation ex-tremes at 111 stations in southwestern China at altitudes of 285-4700 m were examined for the period 1961-2008. Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation in-cluded the trends of diurnal temperature range, frost days, ice days, cold night frequency and cold day frequency. Regional trends of growing season length, warm night frequency, coldest night and warmest night displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with altitude. These characteristics indicated the obvious warming with altitude. For precipitation extreme indices, only the trends of consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, wet day precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days had significant correlations with increasing alti-tude owing to the complex influence of atmospheric circulation. It also indicated the increased precipitation mainly at higher altitude areas, whereas the increase of extreme precipitation events mainly at lowers altitude. In addition, the clearly local influences are also crucial on climate extremes. The analysis revealed an enhanced sensitivity of climate extremes to ele-vation in southwestern China in the context of recent warming.     

经济层面和技术层面的碳减排研究

相关资料和事实表明,全球气候发生了很大的变化。二氧化碳是温室效应中最重要的温室气体,碳减排工作是缓解温室效应的一项重要措施,为当前科学研究热点之一。本文主要从经济和技术两个方面,较为系统和全面地介绍了当前碳减排方面的研究进展。经济层面的研究,包括数量化模型、碳税机制和碳减排附加效应几个方面。专业技术方面的研究,包括对碳行为的源汇和贮量的计算研究、碳循环研究、以及减少碳排放的工业技术的运用等。文章还简要提出了中国在碳减排研究方面应采取的几点措施。     

山东曹县地区土壤地球化学特征

山东省曹县地区土壤地球化学调查是按浅层土壤样品1点/4 km~2,深层土壤样品1点/16 km~2。测试N,P,K,Cu,Zn,B,Mo,Mn,F,As,Hg,Pb,Cr,Cd等14种指标。在统计这些指标的表层、深层土壤地球化学特征参数的基础上,对其与世界、全省同类参数的差异进行了分析,并分析了区内表层、深层土壤元素含量的相关性,认为该区表层土壤元素含量的显著特征是高F而低P,Zn,Mo。大部分元素在表层土壤中的含量继承了土壤母质的成分特征,但N,P,F,Hg等受人为活动和污染源的作用在表层土壤中明显富集。     

Effects of grazing and climate change on species diversity in sandy grassland, Inner Mongolia, China

To understand the effects of animal grazing activities and climate change on sandy grassland vegetation in northern China, a field grazing and protected enclosure experiment was conducted from 1992 through 2006 in Horqin Sand Land, Inner Mongolia. The results showed that (1) the grazing was primary responsible for changes of the vegetation richness and diversity in the grazing grassland and that changing climate was the main reason for changes in the species richness and diversity in the grassland protected from grazing; (2) light and moderate grazing can promote restoration of the richness and the diversity in the degraded grassland, and heavy grazing could result in a decrease of the richness and diversity; (3) heavy grazing can result in significant decrease of the perennial diversity, and moderate and light grazing promotes increase of the perennial diversity; the grazing, whether heavy or moderate and light grazing, was beneficial to increase of the annual diversity; (4) heavy grazing was not beneficial to diversity of Graminean and Chenopodiaceae, and moderate and light grazing was favorable the diversity of Compositae and Chenopodiaceae; (5) the warm-humid climate was favorable to increase of the richness and the diversity, and the warm-drought climate could result in decease of the richness and the diversity; (6) increased precipitation was favorable to perennial diversity and the diversity of Graminean, Leguminosae, and Compositae, and decreased precipitation had few effects on the annual diversity and Chenopodiaceae diversity.     

基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展

从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发, 介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3 种主要统计模型, 即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级) 尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4 个主要问题, 包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题, 提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。     

鄱阳湖乐安河流域水质监测优化布点

采用鄱阳湖乐安河流域13个监测断面1995-2002年8年的污染指标的监测平均值作为原始数据,应用物元分析法对各监测断面进行优化．在确定最佳和最次理想点的基础上,建立标准物元矩阵和节域物元矩阵,并结合综合关联函数,选出优化点位．同时应用相关分析中的距离分析和K-均值聚类法确定各监测点所属类别．综合这三种优化结果,最终确定乐安河流域可以由传统的13个监测点位优化为9个监测点位．     

近800 ka以来南大洋区域经向海表温度差异及气候变化响应

南大洋地理位置关键,其海水热量变化往往会对区域或全球气候产生影响。通过对比南大西洋和南太平洋等南大洋关键海域近800 ka以来的海水表层温度（Sea Surface Temperature,简称SST）变化,同时结合南极冰芯记录的大气CO2浓度、大气温度及大洋底栖氧同位素等气候演变替代指标,对南大洋区域经向海表热量差异及气候响应进行分析,结果显示：1）南大洋不同海域近800 ka以来SST的演化具有明显的区域性。如相较于其他冰期,南大西洋ODP1090站SST值在MIS 12~10期的最低值出现约3.8℃的上升,南塔斯曼海ODP1170站SST冰期最低值则出现约1.3℃的下降;而西南印度洋的MD962077站SST冰期最低值在MIS 10期之后出现约2.2℃的上升。此外,滤波分析结果显示3个站位对"中更新世气候转型"（Mid-Pleistocene Transition,简称MPT）等全球性事件均响应明显;2）"中布容事件"（Mid-Brunhes Event,简称MBE）的发生对南大洋经向温度差异（ΔSST1090-1170）影响明显：MBE之前,ODP1090站位SST在冰期-间冰期旋回中的平均值或极值均比ODP1170站SST的平均值或极值低,但MBE发生期间及之后的MIS 5、MIS 2、MIS 1期,ODP1090站SST的平均值或极值均比ODP1170站SST的平均值或极值高。同时,南大洋经向SST差异（ΔSST1090-1170）在间冰期对气候变化的响应明显比冰期显著。显然,气候变化条件下的海洋锋面迁移及Agulhas流阶段性增强导致外部向南大西洋输入热量有所增加,最终使ΔSST1090-1170值偏正。因此,冰期-间冰期旋回中气候环境改变导致的海洋锋面移动幅度差异等是影响环南极海域经向温度差异变化的关键因素之一。     

云南剑川地区象鼻洞遗址孢粉组合和古环境

为了解云南剑川旧石器时代中晚期植被和气候变化特点以及当地环境与人类活动的关系,选取象鼻洞遗址各地层的13个土样进行孢粉分析。结果表明:该遗址堆积时期孢粉植物群以亚热带和温带成分为主,类型相对丰富,呈温暖期气候特征,但气候存在小的波动,呈现出早期温暖湿润、中期短暂干旱、晚期又逐渐暖湿的特点;木本植物花粉在孢粉总量中占绝对优势,说明当时人类活动对自然环境的影响不明显;可作为食物来源的植物很少,因此,当时居住在象鼻洞的人类主要食物应来源于捕捞或狩猎;对照邻近地区已有的研究成果,推测该遗址气候变化与季风活动有关。