Separate Analysis of Remote Sensing Information of Structures of Different Geological Periods and Quantitative Study of Corresponding Tectonic Stress Fields

The structural feature shown on a remote sensing image is a synthetic result ofcombination of the deformations produced during the entire geological history of an area.Therefore, the respective tectonic stress field of each of the different stages in the complexdeformation of an area can be reconstructed in three steps: (1) geological structures formed atdifferent times are distinguished in remote sensing image interpretation; (2) structuraldeformation fields at different stages are determined by analyzing relationships betweenmicrostructures (joints and fractures) and the related structures (folds and faults); and (3)tectonic stress fields at different stages are respectively recovered through a study of the featuresof structural deformation fields in different periods. Circular structures and related circlular and radial joints are correlated in space to con-cealed structural rises. The authors propose a new method for establishing a natural model ofthe concealed structural rises and calculating the tectonic stress field by using quantitative dataof the remote sensing information of circular structures and related linear structures.     

济南、福山太阳辐射的气候学特征分析

利用济南、福山地面太阳辐射资料，分析了太阳辐射的气候变化特征。结果表明，60到90年代，济南地面太阳总辐射量、直接辐射量呈显著减少趋势，福山变化趋势不明显；90年代以后，济南地面太阳总辐射呈增多趋势。     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

鲁西南深埋粘性土物理力学指标多元统计研究

运用R因子分析和R型聚类两种多元统计分析方法,对鲁西南地区深埋粘性土的20组样的8个物理力学指标数据进行了分析。利用R因子分析方法,揭示了各指标对鲁西南地区深埋粘性土状态和力学性质的影响关系。利用R型聚类分析方法,研究了深部粘性土各物理力学指标之间的相关性,为进一步从物理力学指标对深埋粘性土的特殊状态和力学特性的研究打下基础。     

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.     

Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.     

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tensionless–frictionless interaction of flexible annular foundation with a transversely isotropic multi‐layered half‐space

A transversely isotropic multi‐layered half‐space, with axis of material symmetry perpendicular to the free surface, supports a flexible either annular or solid circle foundation. The contact area of the foundation and the half‐space is considered to be both frictionless and tensionless. The foundation is assumed to be affected by a vertical static axisymmetric load. Detailed analysis of the interaction of these two systems with different thickness of layers is the target of this paper. With the use of ring load Green's functions for both the foundation and the continuum half‐space, an integral equation accompanied with some inequalities is introduced to model the complex BVP. With the incorporation of ring‐shape FEM, we are capable of capturing both regular and singular solution smoothly. The validity of the combination of the analytical and numerical method is proved with comparing the results of this paper with a number of benchmark cases of both linear and nonlinear interaction of circular and annular foundation with half‐space. Some new illustrations are presented to portray the aspect of the anisotropy and layering of the half‐space. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Slope stability analysis using evolutionary optimization techniques

Slope stability optimization, in the presence of a band of a weak layer between two strong layers, is accounted for in complicated geotechnical problems. Classical optimization algorithms are not suitable for solving such problems as they need a proper preliminary solution to converge to a valid result. Therefore, it is necessary to find a proper algorithm which is capable of finding the best global solution. Recently a lot of metaheuristic algorithms have been proposed which are able to evade local minima effectively. In this study four evolutionary algorithms, including well‐known and recent ones, such as genetic algorithm, differential evolution, evolutionary strategy and biogeography‐based optimization (BBO), are applied in slope stability analysis and their efficiencies are explored by three benchmark case studies. Result show BBO is the most efficient among these evolutionary algorithms and other proposed algorithms applied to this problem. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.