A shale gas revolution for China?

The question of whether China is on the verge of a ‘shale gas revolution’ is examined. This has potentially significant consequences for energy policy and climate change mitigation. Contrary to the optimistic reading of some commentators, it argues that various technological, environmental, political, regulatory and institutional factors will constrain the growth of China's shale gas market and that such a revolution might in any event have consequences that are at best mixed, at worst antithetical to climate change mitigation.Policy relevanceChina's reserves of unconventional gas have the potential to transform energy policy, as has occurred in the US, resulting in the substitution of shale gas for coal in the energy mix. Because gas emits only approximately half the GHG per unit as coal, such a move would have important implications for climate policy. However, substantial obstacles stand in the way of the ‘energy revolution’ that some policy analysts see China as embarking upon. The need to acknowledge these obstacles, particularly those relating to regulation and governance (and whether or to what extent they can be overcome), is an issue of profound importance to the future of climate and energy policy.     

综合应用测井及地震资料建立复杂断块地质模型

针对滩海油田具有完钻井少,以地震资料为主的特点,采用井震结合的方法进行地质建模。复杂断块油藏具有许多内部断层,充分利用地震解释层位和断层成果建立合理的构造模型。采用“多步建模”的思路,选用序贯高斯同位协同模拟算法建立储层参数模型。以测井资料为硬数据,地震反演数据为软数据,先后建立自然伽玛模型、泥质含量模型和砂泥岩相模型,然后以砂泥岩相模型为约束,建立储层参数模型。经研究表明,综合使用地震解释成果和三维地震数据体,有助于建立准确、合理的构造模型;而采用“多步建模”的思路,利用序贯高斯同位协同模拟算法,并综合测井资料、地震资料建立储层参数模型,有助于从地质的角度对储层参数模拟进行约束,提高储层随机建模精度,保证储层参数模型的准确和可靠性。     

Contributions of Fuqing ZHANG to Predictability,Data Assimilation,and Dynamics of High Impact Weather: A Tribute

This article reviews Fuqing ZHANG’s contributions to mesoscale atmospheric science,from research to mentoring to academic service,over his 20-year career.His fundamental scientific contributions on predictability,data assimilation,and dynamics of high impact weather,especially gravity waves and tropical cyclones,are highlighted.His extremely generous efforts to efficiently transmit to the community new scientific knowledge and ideas through mentoring,interacting,workshop organizing,and reviewing are summarized.Special appreciation is given to his tremendous contributions to the development of mesoscale meteorology in China and the education of Chinese graduate students and young scientists.     

Mechanical properties of calcareous silts in a hydraulic fill island-reef

Abstract

The mechanical characteristics of calcareous silt interlayers play an important role in the stability of island-reef foundations. Direct shear and consolidation tests were performed to study the relationship between the mechanical properties and the physical parameters of calcareous silt. Based on the consolidation test results and analysis of the settling examples, different calculation methods for soil settling were compared. The results show the following. (1) The relationship between the cohesion and water content of calcareous silt can be represented by an M-shaped curve. The water contents corresponding to the two peaks of the M-type curve increase with increasing dry density. (2) When the dry density is less than 1.33?g/cm³, increasing the density significantly improves the internal friction angle of calcareous silts. When the dry density of the calcareous silt is greater than 1.33?g/cm³, the internal friction angle is affected by both the dry density and the water content. (3) The shear strength decreases when the water content exceeds the optimum level. (4) The compressive modulus of calcareous silt is larger than that of terrigenous silt. Specifically, it decreases with decreasing dry density and increasing water content. (5) The stepwise loading method should be used to estimate the soil settling before fill engineering construction.     

新丰江水库地震序列的分段研究

从新丰江水库地震序列分段、地震序列参数统计、地震序列分段与库水位关系等方面探讨新丰江地区的地震特征.结果表明:①水库地震全序列低b值(≤0.9)时段与大区域地震活动的增强存在一定的相关性,余震活动在一定程度上具有华南地区地震活动“窗口”的作用.②水库地震晚期余震释放阶段55个ML≥3.5级地震分序列研究显示,1975年...     

The ocean as source or sink of reactive trace-gases

Summary After a brief review on recent experimental work on the uptake resp release of SO₂ and NH₃ by the ocean, new results on the distribution of these reactive trace-gases in the marine atmosphere are presented. In the case of SO₂ there is no doubt that the ocean acts as a sink. In the case of NH₃ new observations and calculations show that under certain conditions the ocean may be a NH₃ source.     

历史文献中气候信息的评价

本文对我国史料中所载气候信息进行了评价。结论是:①对于史料所载的某一气候事件,我们将其状态分辨取越细,所获取的信息越少;②在分析过程中,对误差要求低些,所获取的信息反而高些;③就已记录的气候事件而言,官方组织的记载所提供的气候信息最多,私人笔札次之,方志类书最次。     

A modified ISBA surface scheme for modeling the hydrology of Athabasca River Basin with GCM-scale data

A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate.     

区域发展规划的人地系统动力学基础

区域发展规划研究的出发点是人地关系地域系统和可持续发展战略 ,人地关系的协调共生是区域发展规划的灵魂。文章依据耗散结构理论的基本观点提出了人地系统协调共生的4种状态 ,重点分析了人地系统组成要素及其相互关系在时空层次上的动态关联方式及动力结构 ,旨在为编制区域发展规划奠定坚实的动力学基础。     

河南省地热资源开发利用现状评价

基于河南省地热资源特点及其开发利用现状的基础上,分析总结了河南省各种类型地热水的开采情况。首先应用已采量与可采量的比值作为评价标准将地热水的开发利用程度为五类,评价了整个河南省新生界地热水、基岩地热水、温泉水的开发利用情况以及各地市城区的地热开采情况,提出河南省应积极地推广地热资源利用,对开采过热的地区要注意防止地热水位下降过快,对开采一般的地区要注意适度开发,对其他地区要结合自身实际鼓励开发。