正环境电场中闪电先导的始发和传播

为了研究中国内陆高原雷暴正极性闪电放电的特点,中日两国科学家于１９９７年７～８月在甘肃省平凉市联合进行了人工触发闪电野外实验。利用设在离触发点约３．５ｋｍ处的高速数字化摄像系统结合在闪道底部的电流测量记录,对在正环境电场中触发的两次闪电的初始先导的发生和发展特点进行了研究。资料分析表明,这两次触发闪电都是由火箭顶部始发的上行负先导传输入云而形成短暂的连续电流放电过程,整个放电持续时间分别只有１７和２６ｍｓ。先导在垂直方向的传输速度随时间而增加,平均值约为３．５×１０５ｍ／ｓ。正环境电场中的先导在向云底传输过程中可能产生多个分枝,但它们一般只存在几毫秒时间就消亡了,只有少数分枝能够发展入云。主通道的亮度综合反映了各分枝亮度的变化,而它本身又与在闪道底部测量记录到的闪电放电电流变化存在很好的对应关系。     

人工触发闪电放电过程分析：I.先导放电过程

利用人工触发闪电电场,电流和闪电通道亮度高速摄像观测资料,分析了第一次回击前衔导过程的放电特性,结果指出,对于空中触发,先导传输具有“双向”特征,由于下行先导发展,先导通道电流分布具有不均匀性,连接导线汽化都发生在上行先导阶段。人工闪电第一次回击虽然与自然闪电继后回击特性十分相似,但两者放电特征仍有差别,前者具有曾长的连续电流过程。     

成矿作用的混沌动力学性态

本文研究了地壳中元素迁移聚集和成矿过程的非线性动力学模型,该模型的迭代关系式与逻辑斯蒂（Logistic）方程一致。这表明,与元素迁移聚集有关的成矿作用是混沌的,并由此导致了地壳中元素含量、矿床储量及其空间分布具分形结构。     

混沌分析在水文预测中的应用和展望

简述了将混沌理论应用于水文预测中需要解决的三个关键问题:(1)水文系统重建相空间技术;(2)水文系统混沌性识别;(3)水文混沌预测方法。分析了现有的研究成果和最新进展,并指出今后需要开展的工作及存在的问题。     

The existence of a chaotic region due to the overlap of secular resonances ν5 and ν6

A nonlinear theory of secular resonances is developed. Both terms corresponding to secular resonances ₅ and ₆ are taken into account in the Hamiltonian. The simple overlap criterion is applied and the condition for the overlap of these resonances is found. It is shown that in given approximation the value p = (1 - e²)^1/2(1 - cosI) is an integral of motion, where the mean eccentricity e and mean inclination I are obtained by eliminating short-period perturbations as well as the nonresonant terms from the planets. The overlap criterion yields a critical value of parameter p depending on the semi-major axis a of the asteroid. For p greater than the critical value, resonance overlap occurs and chaotic motion has to be expected. A mapping is presented for fast calculation of the trajectories. The results are illustrated by level curves in surfaces of section method.     

Characterization of Earthquake Dynamics in Northeastern India Regions: A Modern Nonlinear Forecasting Approach

— The Northeastern India (NEI) region, is seismotectonically one of the most active regions of the world. Earlier studies of NEI earthquake data have provided contrasting evidence for the presence of randomness and low-dimensional strange attractor. Here, in the present study, we assess the dimensionality of an earthquake-generating mechanism by nonlinear predictability analyses on phase portrait constructed by monthly frequency earthquake time series which was obtained from the NOAA catalogue. The result of nonlinear forecasting analyses suggests that the earthquake processes in the NEI region evolve on a non-random high-dimensional chaotic system. Such a complex high-dimensional earthquake behavior is indicative of heterogeneous geological structures in which weak fault zones and/or individual fault interactions might have strength fluctuations due to pore pressure variation. Further, K₂ entropy analysis was performed to isolate the non-random component from the data. The analysis reveals a quasi-coherent time structure, (K₂ 0.08/month) which corresponds to a seasonal time scale of about 12 months. We argue that stochastic resonance created by seasonality bias may have combined with noise to affect the pore pressure variation leading to subsequent earthquake triggering. It is interesting to note that most earthquakes and swarm activities occurred during or after the monsoon season. Geological and geophysical evidence also reconciles with the above view. Evidence for high-dimensional chaos associated with seasonal bias in the NEI region may provide useful constraints for testing models and criteria to assess earthquake hazards on a more rigorous and quantitative basis.Received: 1 September 2001     

赤道东太平洋弯曲急流区质点轨迹及混沌运动机制

利用运动学模型 ,研究了弯曲急流控制参数为定常和发生周期扰动时的流体质点运动轨迹以及混沌现象的产生机制。发现弯曲急流控制参数为定常时 ,流体质点的运动为规则的周期运动 ;而控制参数发生扰动时 ,可以发生流体质点在不同特征区的穿行 ,流体质点的运动具有混沌特性。弯曲急流的相速、振幅发生周期扰动均可使流体质点的运动出现混沌特性。作者从运动学上对弯曲急流区的漂流浮标混沌特性给出了解释。     

混沌时间序列相空间重构及特性识别

相空间重构是混沌时间序列分析及预测的前提。针对地铁建设中地表沉降变形监测的弱信号数据处理问题,该文引入了混沌理论,通过采用自相关函数法和C-C法对比求得时间延迟τ,运用G-P方法和Cao方法求取嵌入维数m,从而对时间序列进行相空间重构;并通过求取最大Lvyapunov指数对时间序列进行混沌特性的判定识别。研究结论表明,系统的混沌特性,在研究地铁变形监测、运用混沌理论建模预测以及变形监测数据处理方面是值得重视的。     

热水沉积过程混沌序列弱信号的提取

运用地层垒积序列的概念和Logistic混沌序列叠加过程分解模型, 对岩比参数序列中的弱信号进行提取, 进一步研究热水沉积作用强度演化的定量特征, 为对热水沉积盆地古地理环境进行三维动态模拟奠定了基础.      

3. Hydrometry

Abstract

The derived model achieves the rainfall/discharge conversion by means of two individual equations, namely, a production function and a modulation function.