南洞地下河月径流时间序列的混沌特征及预测

利用基于相空间重构技术、混沌识别与预测理论对1993-2013年南洞地下河月径流时间序列的非线性特征进行了分析,由所获得的延迟时间和最佳嵌入维数实现了月径流时间序列的相空间重构,运用饱和关联维数法和小数据量法计算出南洞地下河月径流时间序列的饱和关联维数和最大Lyapunov指数,并运用Volterra模型对南洞地下河月径流时间序列进行了多步预测研究。研究结果表明,南洞地下河月径流时间序列相空间重构的延迟时间和最佳嵌入维数分别为τ=5、m=8,饱和关联维数D和最大Lyapunov指数λ分别为4.63、0.748 9,从定性和定量的角度证明了南洞地下河月径流时间序列具有弱混沌特征。Volterra自适应滤波模型的预测结果能较好地表征南洞地下河月径流的变化趋势和规律,对18个月内的短期预测精度较高,模拟效果较好。      

电力工程项目管控系统之信息化——领导查询需求设计和实施

做领导查询需求难,领导也讲不清;领导查什么？表格和图表。这是本文要介绍的主要原因及内容,本人通过公司信息化建设近十年的经验,一般员工到领导的信息需求都经历过,对过程体会较深。通过下面内容的简单扼要介绍为领导查询的设计提供一些意见。     

On particle trajectories in restricted 3-body problem including the effect of radiation: Sun-Jupiter system

In this work, we have simulated orbits of a particle moving in gravitational field of the Sun-Jupiter system. The effect of solar radiation pressure, including Poynting Robertson drag, on the evolution of particle orbits in phase space have been studied for different values of the parameter β ₁ (the ratio of radiation to gravitational force) and initial conditions. Characteristics of various computed trajectories have been studied using wavelet transform (WT), Fourier transform (FT) and Poincare surface of section method. We use wavelet analysis to identify transitions of a trajectory in time-frequency plane and further apply it to classify it as regular or chaotic in phase space. Unlike the Fourier transform method (FT), we observe that the wavelet transform (WT) also provides a basis to identify ‘sticky’ trajectories in the present dynamical system.     

Relationship between social stability and climate change in the Tang Dynasty

This paper quantitatively divides the Tang Dynasty into five prosperous and chaotic social periods,and discusses the relationship between the social division and climate change. The criteria for determining prosperity and chaos is refered to a set of systematic war data. In order to verify the reasonableness of the division,we applied 1-way-ANOVA to test the differences of each variable index between prosperity and chaos periods. The results of social division are as follows: from AD 618 to AD 626,and from AD 743 to AD 784,as well as from AD 860 to AD 907 were the chaotic periods;while from AD 627 to A0 742,and from AD 785 to AD 859 were the prosperous periods. The results of 1-way-ANOVA show that,climate change,general wars,rebellions,offensive border wars,defensive border wars,agricultural harvests,and population growth rates are all significantly different between prosperity and chaos,except the general external wars. War data were used to quantitatively represent the social changes in the Tang Dynasty. In chaotic periods,the main types of wars are rebellions and defensive border wars,while the main type of wars in prosperous periods are offensive border wars. To explore the relationship between climate change and social division means to make clear the relationship between climate change and wars. The results of correlation analysis show the decrease of agricultural harvest due to lower temperature and less precipitation leads to the shortage of resources supply,so that the likelihood of rebellions increase;while during the warm periods with abundant rainfall,increasing agricultural harvest stimulates rapid population growth. Due to the limitations of technology and land resources,offensive border wars for expansion are more likely to occur.     

A Symplectic Mapping Model as a Tool to Understand the Dynamics of 2/1 Resonant Asteroid Motion

We present a 3-D symplectic mapping model that is valid at the 2:1 mean motion resonance in the asteroid motion, in the Sun-Jupiter-asteroid model. This model is used to study the dynamics inside this resonance and several features of the system have been made clear. The introduction of the third dimension, through the inclination of the asteroid orbit, plays an important role in the evolution of the asteroid and the appearance of chaotic motion. Also, the existence of the secondary resonances is clearly shown and their role in the appearance of chaotic motion and the slow diffusion of the elements of the orbit is demonstrated. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

甜水海钻孔TS95若干地球化学指标的非线性分析与意义

应用关联维分析和R／S分析对西昆伦甜水海孔TS95的4项指标（FeO,Fe2O3,Fe2O3/FeO和有机碳）进行分析,发现它们存在明显的混沌特征和Hurst现象,4项指标的混沌吸引子分别为：FeO－2．8;Fe2O3－3．2;Fe2O／FeO－2．9;有机碳2．5,饱和嵌入维数为5到6,表明控制该地区气候环境演化的动力系统是由有限维数确定的混沌系统,构筑该系统所需变量至少3到4个,最多5到6个,这种体上与深海氧同位素比较接近,与黄土剖面一些指标差异较大,4项指标折Hurst指数（FeO－0．85;Fe2O3－0．76;Fe2O3／FeO－0．65;有机碳－0．74）显示该地区气候环境演化存在明显的持续性成分,这与早期的研究一致,很可能与青藏高原的构造抬升有关,表明除了全球性气候环境波动背景外,局域性因素,如肝藏高原构造抬升和未海地区水系变迁,都会在各种气候环境演化的替代性指标上有所反映。4项指标Hurst指数的差异可能反映FeO容易迁移,受到了流域水系变化的影响,因而有机碳和Fe2O3可能是反映这种环境演化持续性分更好的指标。     

一次雹暴的闪电特征和电荷结构演变研究

综合利用SAFIR3000三维闪电定位系统的全闪定位资料与雷达结合对2005年5月31日发生于北京的一次冰雹过程的闪电活动和电荷结构演变特征进行了综合分析.结果表明:该雷暴的闪电活动有两次活跃期,第一个活跃期产生了降雹,降雹结束后,闪电活动突然减少,之后的活跃期产生了更多的闪电,其中一部分处于云砧区.闪电活动峰值超前降雹5 min左右,闪电活动中的地闪仅占6.16%,但正地闪占总地闪的比例达20%,且降雹前的正地闪比例较降雹后要高·降雹发生后,正地闪很少发生.降雹阶段,参与放电的主要电荷区表现为反极性结构,-40℃左右区域为参与放电的主负电荷区,-15℃左右区域为参与放电的主正电荷区,在正电荷区之下,短暂存在一个较弱的负电荷区.降雹结束后,电荷结构经历了持续的快速调整过程,在第2次闪电活跃期,参与放电的主要区域表现为正常的三极性结构,即上正-中负-下正,受西风气流的影响,此三极性结构出现倾斜.动力和微物理过程的分析表明,闪电活动和电荷结构的特征与雷暴云内的动力、微物理过程紧密相关.文中对反极性电荷结构形成的可能机理进行了讨论,并且认为,具有强烈上升气流的灾害性天气可能更易形成反三极性的电荷结构,并在下部两个电衙区的作用下产生较多的正地闪.     

Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction

This paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales.Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth.The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range.A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center.At the same time,useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data,reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components.Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method.The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10–30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications.     

内蒙古中部早古生代地体的拼合与增置

内蒙古中部布龙山、温都尔庙一带的蛇绿岩套、蓝门石片岩及其南邻的华北地台两者在空间上以川井－布鲁台庙深大断裂带为界，在时间上具有截然不同的地质演化特点。其内部在构造演化史上也不尽相同，可进一步划分为布龙山－哈拉地层地体和白乃庙－温都尔庙混杂地体。这两个曾分离着的地体，经长时期的运移，于晚志留世之前拼合联为一体，构成早古生代联合地体。直到早二叠世才增置于中朝古板块北缘（或华北地台北缘）。     

用于检测同相轴的Duffing型系统恢复力项的讨论

在用于检测同相轴的Duffing型系统中,非线性恢复力项的选取至关重要.针对具有不同非线性恢复力项的混沌系统,本文首先就非线性恢复力项的来源进行了说明,通过对哈密顿系统和耗散系统的仿真实验分析,以及理论推导,确定了势能—哈密顿多项式方程中可用于混沌振子检测系统的各项幂次和各项系数组合关系,即非线性恢复力项的选取规则:幂次最高项为奇次,其系数大于零.