印度洋地震海啸(2004-12-26)及其对中国的警示

2004年12月26日印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛西北近海发生ML9级强烈地震。地震的强度是100a来全球非常罕见的。地震引起了巨大海啸,浪高近10m,波及到东南亚、南亚和东非地区10多个国家,造成近30万人遇难。地震使印度尼西亚、泰国的部分岛屿发生了地形变化。海啸在受灾国留下了大片的盐碱地。苏门答腊板块边缘的一个长距离破裂带通过长时间积累,蓄积了巨大能量。这些能量在2004-12-26集中释放出来。导致了这次地震海啸的发生。地震海啸灾害本身规模巨大,发生异常突然,再加上受灾地区人员密集,缺乏海啸灾害逃生的知识和经验。印度洋沿岸国家没有海啸预警系统,是造成这次灾害巨大伤亡的原因。中国从台湾-海南岛一线的海区,存在地震海啸的可能性。因此应不断完善海啸预警系统,提高沿海地区建设工程的防灾抗灾标准,加强防波堤建设以及采取恢复红树林等生物工程措施,预防潜在的海啸灾害。     

基坑开挖支护中土拱效应分析

针对基坑工程领域土拱理论,分析了几个值得探讨的问题。土拱的存在形式是三维的,根据不同位置将土拱分为3类：桩间拱、桩后侧向拱和垂向拱。针对地下水对拱的破坏效应,提出了微结构失稳突变模型。对土拱的分析探讨期待对土拱理论的发展和完善起到积极作用。     

Caustics in seismology

Summary. Catastrophe optics provides insights into the structure of the caustics produced by seismic events. Two examples are given. The first is the caustic formed on the surface of the Earth between 10° and 30° from the event by P rays that have reached the transition zone of the mantle. This is organized by one or more approximately circular cusp lines; these are generally below the surface, but because of lateral (regional) variations, they are puckered. Where they intersect the surface they give rise to characteristic beak-to-beak and lips patterns. The second example is the caustic structure produced by refraction at the core–mantle boundary. There is a four-cusped figure at the antipodal point, and, in addition, it is suggested that the main 143° PKP caustic is actually cusped, the cusps being smeared out when radially symmetric earth models are used. The cusps arise from bumps on the core–mantle boundary. In general, the caustic, and its accompanying diffraction structure, associated with a bump can be understood as an unfolding of the parabolic umbilic catastrophe.     

狭窄煤柱冲击地压的折迭突变模型

对简化的狭窄煤柱岩爆分析模型,通过功、能增量平衡关系的途径,导出狭窄煤柱岩爆的突变模式属折迭突变模型。该突变模型的平衡方程和平衡路径所展示的全部性态, 可对煤柱以岩爆形式破坏和渐进形式破坏过程中,包括系统稳定性在内的所有行为,作一一相对应的描述。并首次给出的岩梁弹性能变化（释放）率曲线包含了丰富的信息量,对理解岩梁-煤柱系统在各阶段的行为规律有着重要的作用。所给出的能量输入率 ,是系统失稳临界条件的提法和表达式中蕴涵了Cook刚度判据,故看作是Cook判据能量形式的动态推广。利用能量输入率可将极限状态下岩煤系统稳定性的定性认识提高到用定量形式描述,为岩煤系统稳定性的表述赋予新的形式。     

锚固体梁的弯曲突变失稳问题分析

现场经验及模型实验表明,煤巷锚杆支护中有时出现锚固体的弯曲突变失稳现象。通过力学模型解析,系统地研究了锚固体的弯曲突变失稳机理及平衡条件,并对锚固体的横向承载面积及水平推力进行了分析,发现锚固体梁在受载变形的不同阶段维持不同的自稳特征,保持不同的动态平衡。因此,研究锚固体突变失稳的发生和控制具有理论价值和工程意义。     

圆形硐室岩爆的折迭突变模型

均匀围压下圆形硐室岩爆是传统意义上的软化区内岩环经过塑性变形局部化阶段完成的。当处于极限状态的塑性变形集中区承载能力下降时, 岩环中相对完好部分以弹性方式卸载,当后者释放的弹性能超过前者塑性变形所耗散的能量时便发生岩爆。简捷地通过等效应力 和等效应变 关系建立突变模型对硐室岩爆进行了分析, 将状态变量 用软化区半径 来表示。分析表明: 岩爆发生条件与硐室岩体的升降模量比 和岩体裂隙发育程度 的乘积有关; 对于特定冲击倾性的岩体,存在对应的临界软化区深度 , 即软化区深度达到 时便发生岩爆;还给出硐室岩爆释放地震能等计算式,岩爆释放的地震能量级则与硐室软化区深入程度有关。     

岩盐溶腔顶板稳定性突变理论分析

采用固支大变形圆板突变模型研究了单井溶腔顶板的稳定性,得出了溶腔顶板岩层失稳的必要条件;并考虑了自重侧压力及水平构造应力的综合作用,用平直梁尖点突变模型研究了连通井顶板的失稳突跳,得出了连通井顶板失稳的充要条件。为溶腔稳定性控制和溶腔用于战略石油和天然气的储备打下理论基础。     

A tale of two planets: geomorphology applied to Mars' surface,fluvio‐deltaic processes and landforms

Deltas on planet Mars record past climate, but so far a wide range of hypotheses for their formation have been proposed. The objective of this paper is to understand martian fan deltas, their formative conditions, evolution and formative duration, and implications for the past climate. As an introduction to Mars, physiographic provinces are described and unambiguous proof is listed for the presence of flowing water in the past, such as certain minerals, groundwater, catastrophic outflow channels, alluvial fans and fan deltas, distributary networks and glaciers. The climate history of Mars differs from that of Earth by having had much drier conditions than on Earth, extreme intermittency and extreme events, most of them billions of years ago. Tens of fan deltas, unchannelized fan deltas and stepped fans have been found in impact crater and other lakes. The stepped fans were likely formed by backstepping under fast rising lake levels and have no known terrestrial equivalent. The fan deltas were formed once the lake overflowed. Alluvial fans are much more numerous and formed with less water. The delta studies illustrate how major challenges of martian morphology and reconstruction of past conditions can be taken up most effectively by combinations of the available high‐resolution images and digital elevation models, terrestrial analogues, laboratory experiments and physics‐based models gleaned from geomorphology. To resolve formative mechanisms and time scale of martian fans and deltas, morphological distinctions between dense debris flows and dilute fluvial flows must be identified for both source and sink areas. Furthermore, the properties of the martian surface material are very poorly constrained but can be explored by modelling various mass wasting, fluvial and glacial phenomena and hydrology, and by experimentation with slightly cohesive sediment. Finally, the highly debated role of groundwater sapping in valley and delta formation on Mars should be explored experimentally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近50a来北方农牧交错带气温变化趋势及突变分析

利用北方农牧交错带内及邻近的共46个气象站点1957—2007年的气温数据资料,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、R/S分析法,对气温变化趋势及突变特征进行了分析。结果表明,近50a来北方农牧交错带年、季气温普遍升高,20世纪90年代以后气温上升趋势显著,达到了99%的信度水平,年平均气温增温速率约为0.32℃/10a,明显高于全国和全球的气温增长率,其中冬季增温尤为明显,对全年增温贡献率最大;Hurst指数分析表明,整个北方农牧交错带年、季气温在未来仍表现出上升趋势,冬季的增温持续性最强;北方农牧交错带年、季升温幅度在空间上表现出一定的区域差异性,其年平均气温在90年代初发生了升温突变。     

高风险岩溶隧道掌子面突水机制研究

在我国西部强岩溶地区,越来越多的长大深埋隧道潜在突水、突泥的风险,由于隐伏岩溶水体位置、规模以及体量的不确定性,突水模式与类型异常复杂,隧道掌子面的突水风险系数极高。对于隧道开挖后围岩结构完整性较好的掌子面,在特大体量隐伏岩溶水体作用下,当开挖面进入安全厚度内迅速发生破断突水,具备明显的突变特征。针对隧道掌子面发生破断突水的突变特征,采用数值手段探讨了施工条件对突水突变现象的影响。将隧道简化为圆形,建立了掌子面失稳的折叠突变模型,通过对系统势能函数的分析,推导了隧道掌子面发生破断的突水条件和最小安全厚度计算公式,基于系统势能突变控制参数灾变演化路径的分析,提出了掌子面突水的具体防治措施,并结合工程实例验证了其可行性。