Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

广西官村岩溶溪流中生物地球化学控制的DIC和NO3-昼夜变化研究

为了解岩溶区控制溪流中溶解无机碳(DIC)和NO_3~-昼夜变化的生物地球化学过程以及DIC和NO_3~-日变化量,于2014-07-22~2014-07-24期间,在广西壮族自治区融安县官村溪流中包括地下河出口(CK)和下游雷崖村(LY)设置两个监测点同时对水体物理化学参数以及C、N同位素(δ~(13) CDIC、δ~(15) N-NO_3~-和δ~(18) O-NO_3~-)展开了为期2d的高分辨率昼夜监测采样工作。结果发现CK点各物理化学参数没有表现出昼夜变化,但是LY点Ca2+、DIC以及PCO2表现出明显的昼夜变化规律,即白天下降夜间上升且与DO和pH表现出明显的负相关关系。相对于CK点,在白天水生光合生物光合作用导致LY点DIC下降的同时δ~(13) CDIC上升,而在夜间呼吸作用导致LY点DIC上升的同时δ~(13) CDIC下降且部分时间段要低于CK点δ~(13) CDIC值。溪流中的NH4+在监测期间基本上都在下降而NO_3~-离子在夜间和上午时间段都在上升,δ~(15) N-NO_3~-却表现出下降的趋势,且比较接近δ~(15) N-NO_3~-初始值,而NO_3~-离子在下午时间段出现下降的趋势。结果表明溪流中DIC昼夜变化主要受到水生植物的光合作用和呼吸作用控制,且通过质量平衡方程计算得知溪流中由于光合作用吸收无机碳而转为有机碳的量为0.94kgC/d,这部分有机碳可以形成相对长期稳定的自然C汇。溪流在夜间和上午时间段发生了N的硝化作用,增长量为2.08kgN/d,但在下午时间段(12:00~18:00)发生了N的同化作用,损失量为0.42kgN/d。溪流输出的NO_3~--N的量为1.66kgN/d,表明在富碳、富钙的岩溶溪流中,有利于水生光合生物的生长,促进N的同化作用的发生,从而减少溪流输出NO_3~--N的量,说明岩溶区溪流N的生物地球化学过程可能在昼夜尺度上改变水质。     

基于偏移四叉树投票的“大尺寸”点状符号多尺度无压盖可视化

为解决Web 2.0环境下点状符号地图混搭中的制图问题,本文研究并实现了一种可100%避免压盖的"大尺寸"点符号高效可视化方法。该方法的核心思想是四叉树网格单选,采用网格平移对多次单选结果投票来计算符号在各缩放级别的显著性等级,可解决符号在相邻网格的空间冲突。该过程不需要显式探测冲突,因而处理效率极高。随着地图放大,重要性较低的符号也逐级显现,实现了语义层次的多尺度表达。针对符号和网格大小比率关系、有效网格平移方案及图面利用率不足问题提出两种扩展:格网增选和多级符号叠加。对方法的可行性进行了试验验证,并分析了该方法在用户查询条件改变下的稳定性和不同数据量下的伸缩性(非优化实现可达到105量级数据的亚秒级处理)。     

Multiple statistical approaches for the discrimination of mangrove species of Rhizophoraceae using transformed field and laboratory hyperspectral data

This study aims at discriminating eight mangrove species of Rhizophoraceae family of Indian east coast using field and laboratory spectra in spectral range (350–2500 nm). Parametric and non-parametric statistical analyses were applied on spectral data in four spectral modes: (i) reflectance (ii) continuum removed, (iii) additive inverse and (iv) continuum removed additive inverse. We introduced continuum removal of inverse spectra to utilize the advantage of continuum removal in reflectance region. Non-parametric test gave better separability than parametric test. Principal component analysis and stepwise discriminant analysis were applied for feature reduction and to identify optimal wavelengths for species discrimination. To quantify the separability, Jeffries–Matusita distance measure was derived. Green (550 nm), red edge (680–720 nm) and water absorption region (1470 and 1850 nm) were found to be optimal wavelengths for species discrimination. The continuum removal of additive inverse spectra gave better separability than the continuum removed spectra.     

Quantification of LST and CO2 levels using Landsat-8 thermal bands on urban environment

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important aspect in global to regional change studies, for control of climate change and balancing of high temperature. Urbanization is one of the influencing factors increasing land surface and atmospheric temperature, by the emission of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO₂, NO and methane). In the present study, LST was derived from Landsat-8 of multitemporal data sets to analyse the spatial structure of the urban thermal environment in relation to the urban surface characteristics and land use–land cover (LULC). LST is influenced by the greenhouse gases i.e. CO₂ plays an important role in increasing the earth’s surface temperature. In order to provide the evidence of influence of CO₂ on LST, the relationship between LST, air temperature and CO₂ was analysed. Landsat-8 satellite has two thermal bands, 10 and 11. These bands were used to accurately to calculate the temperature over the study area. Results showed that the strength of correlation between ground monitoring data and satellite data was high. Based on correlation values of each month April (R² = 0.994), May (R² = 0.297) and June (R² = 0.934), observed results show that band 10 was significantly correlating with air temperature. Relationship between LST and CO₂ levels were obtained from linear regression analysis. band 11 was correlating significantly with CO₂ values in each of the months April (R² = 0.217), May (R² = 0.914) and June, (R² = 0.934), because band 11 is closer to the 15-micron band of CO₂. From the results, it was observed that band 10 can be used for calculating air temperature and band 11 can be used for estimation of greenhouse gases.     

滇黔北坳陷寒武系碳酸盐岩古海洋环境特征及地质意义

为厘定滇黔北坳陷寒武系碳酸盐岩古海洋环境,揭示成岩流体与岩溶作用的潜在联系,并预测有利储层发育层段,基于镇雄羊场碳酸盐岩剖面实测及系统取样基础上,采用微量元素、碳氧锶同位素及铸体薄片等分析手段,地球化学与岩石学方法相结合,探讨碳酸盐岩古海洋环境及地质意义。研究结果表明:滇黔北坳陷寒武系清虚洞组-娄山关组整体为海相环境,古海洋温度处于12.82℃~32.84℃之间,主体为温暖或炎热的亚热带气候。海平面具有主体震荡下降的趋势,存在8期海平面变化旋回,发育对应的岩相组合,其同位素演化曲线可作为地层划分依据。微量元素、同位素地球化学及岩石学特征证实娄山关组岩溶作用相对发育,成岩流体混入强氧化性低温大气水,有利储层纵向上主要分布在海平面下降旋回的高部位。     

Reaction time scales for sulphate reduction in sediments of acidic pit lakes and its relation to in-lake acidity neutralisation

Sulphate reduction is a key reaction to remove acidity from water bodies affected by acid mine drainage. In this study, ³⁵SSO₄²⁻ reduction rates determined in sediments from a variety of acidic lignite pit lakes have been compiled. The rates decreased with pH and are strongly dependent on carbon substrate. The rates were fitted to a Monod model adapted to the specific conditions of acidic pit lakes (APL) sediments: i) sulphate reduction rate is independent from sulphate concentration due to the high concentration typically observed in APL systems (10–30 mM), ii) the observed pH dependency of sulphate reduction was accounted for by an inhibition function F_inihibt which considers the occurrence of low cell numbers of sulphate reducing bacteria at pH values < 4.75. Simulated steady-state sulphate reduction rates are predicting measured rates at carbon substrate concentrations of <10 μM. Estimated steady-state reaction time scales range between 2.4 h at pH 7 and 41 h at pH 3 at a carbon half-saturation constant of K_C−S = 100 μM and are increasing with increasing K_C−S values. Time scales at low pH are too long to allow for significant generation of alkalinity during the time of residence of groundwater passing through the top and hence most reactive zone of APL sediments which has important implications for the remediation of acidic pit lakes.     

早白垩世泥炭地净初级生产力及其控制因素--来自二连盆地吉尔嘎郎图凹陷6号煤的证据

现代泥炭地中蕴藏着巨量的碳,泥炭地生产力的高低会影响全球碳循环及全球气候变化。前人对全新世以来泥炭地生产力做了大量研究,但对前第四纪的“深时”阶段的泥炭地生产力则极少涉及,其主要原因是缺少精确的定年方法。以二连盆地吉尔嘎郎图凹陷早白垩世6号煤为例,利用地球物理测井信号进行频谱分析并获得煤层中米兰科维奇旋回周期参数（123 ka（偏心率）:38.1 ka（斜率）:22.1 ka（岁差））,将米兰科维奇旋回作为“深时”地层时间的“度量”工具,计算出6号煤层碳的聚集速率为35.1~38.9 g C/（m2·a）,进一步推算出其所代表的泥炭地的碳聚集速率为46.2~51.2 g C/（m2·a）,净初级生产力（NPP）为231~256 g C/（m2·a）。将该计算结果与全新世同一纬度带泥炭地生产力水平比较,并结合前人研究成果综合分析影响因素,得出早白垩世泥炭地生产力水平主要受温度和大气中二氧化碳含量控制,而这两种因素又与气候相关联,则泥炭地生产力的研究可能对进一步了解古气候提供帮助。