枝万线选线中的主要工程地质问题研究

枝万铁路工程地质条件极为复杂, 控制线路方案的选择. 所进行的研究为工程前期工作的技术储备. 通过对区域地质背景的分析, 在总结工程地质和水文地质特征和规律的基础上, 找出控制线路方案的关键工程地质问题, 经充分研究, 确定选线原则, 指导线路方案的综合比选.      

Enhancing spatial accuracy of mobile phone data using multi-temporal dasymetric interpolation

Novel digital data sources allow us to attain enhanced knowledge about locations and mobilities of people in space and time. Already a fast-growing body of literature demonstrates the applicability and feasibility of mobile phone-based data in social sciences for considering mobile devices as proxies for people. However, the implementation of such data imposes many theoretical and methodological challenges. One major issue is the uneven spatial resolution of mobile phone data due to the spatial configuration of mobile network base stations and its spatial interpolation. To date, different interpolation techniques are applied to transform mobile phone data into other spatial divisions. However, these do not consider the temporality and societal context that shapes the human presence and mobility in space and time. The paper aims, first, to contribute to mobile phone-based research by addressing the need to give more attention to the spatial interpolation of given data, and further by proposing a dasymetric interpolation approach to enhance the spatial accuracy of mobile phone data. Second, it contributes to population modelling research by combining spatial, temporal and volumetric dasymetric mapping and integrating it with mobile phone data. In doing so, the paper presents a generic conceptual framework of a multi-temporal function-based dasymetric (MFD) interpolation method for mobile phone data. Empirical results demonstrate how the proposed interpolation method can improve the spatial accuracy of both night-time and daytime population distributions derived from different mobile phone data sets by taking advantage of ancillary data sources. The proposed interpolation method can be applied for both location- and person-based research, and is a fruitful starting point for improving the spatial interpolation methods for mobile phone data. We share the implementation of our method in GitHub as open access Python code.     

Understanding the bias of call detail records in human mobility research

ABSTRACT

In recent years, call detail records (CDRs) have been widely used in human mobility research. Although CDRs are originally collected for billing purposes, the vast amount of digital footprints generated by calling and texting activities provide useful insights into population movement. However, can we fully trust CDRs given the uneven distribution of people’s phone communication activities in space and time? In this article, we investigate this issue using a mobile phone location dataset collected from over one million subscribers in Shanghai, China. It includes CDRs (~27%) plus other cellphone-related logs (e.g., tower pings, cellular handovers) generated in a workday. We extract all CDRs into a separate dataset in order to compare human mobility patterns derived from CDRs vs. from the complete dataset. From an individual perspective, the effectiveness of CDRs in estimating three frequently used mobility indicators is evaluated. We find that CDRs tend to underestimate the total travel distance and the movement entropy, while they can provide a good estimate to the radius of gyration. In addition, we observe that the level of deviation is related to the ratio of CDRs in an individual’s trajectory. From a collective perspective, we compare the outcomes of these two datasets in terms of the distance decay effect and urban community detection. The major differences are closely related to the habit of mobile phone usage in space and time. We believe that the event-triggered nature of CDRs does introduce a certain degree of bias in human mobility research and we suggest that researchers use caution to interpret results derived from CDR data.     

批量到达的多服务台排队模型求解

用概率母函数的方法求解了批量到达，多服务台排队模型队长的稳态分布、均值、顾客到达不用等候的概率。最后简述了结论在呼叫中心设计中的应用。     

基于Web的XML Web Service的研究

Web服务基于XML的数据交换标准，提供企业将软件作为应用进行发布的网络计算体系，其他客户或用户都可通过Internet访问该在线服务，真正的使企业只面向核心的商务逻辑。本文重点研究了Web服务的核心思想及应用，体系结构，工作流程，从Web服务的创建、发布、到客户端的应用；还讨论了Web服务的安全机制、异步调用。随着微软的．net战略的实施，Web服务将带来第三代网络应用和服务软件的革命。     

Using the social cost of carbon to value earth observing systems

The goal of this study is to show how to quantify the benefits of accelerated learning about key parameters of the climatic system and use this knowledge to improve decision-making on climate policy. The US social cost of carbon (SCC) methodology is used in innovative ways to value new Earth observing systems (EOSs). The study departs from the strict US SCC methodology, and from previous work, in that net benefits are used instead of only damages to calculate the value of information of the enhanced systems. In other respects the US SCC methodology is followed closely. We compute the surfeit expected net benefits of learning the actionable information earlier, with the enhanced system, versus learning later with existing systems. The enhanced systems are designed to give reliable information about climate sensitivity on accelerated timescales relative to existing systems; therefore, the decision context stipulates that a global reduced emissions path would be deployed upon receiving suitable information on the rate of temperature rise with a suitable level of confidence. By placing the enhanced observing system in a decision context, the SCC enables valuing this system as a real option.

Policy relevance

Uncertainty in key parameters of the climatic system is often cited as a barrier for near-term reductions of carbon emissions. It is a truism among risk managers that uncertainty costs money, and its reduction has economic value. Advancing policy making under uncertainty requires valuing the reduction in uncertainty. Using CLARREO, a new proposed EOS,as an example, this article applies value of information/real option theory to value the reduction of uncertainty in the decadal rate of temperature rise. The US interagency social cost of carbon directive provides the decision context for the valuations. It is shown that the real option value of the uncertainty reduction, relative to existing observing systems, is a very large multiple of the new system's cost.     

基于RouterOS技术的12322防震减灾电话呼叫系统双线路设计与实现

根据12322电话呼叫系统的实际工作情况,提出了系统线路备份方案,设计了适合新疆维吾尔自治区地震局现状的12322电话呼叫系统双线路,并给出整体思路、实际配置及调试过程,该方案将会提高12322电话呼叫系统线路的稳定运行,同时也提高了系统的安全运行效率。     

金融领域的随机建模与基于软件R的Monte Carlo模拟(1):金融期权

为了让更多人了解期权及其相关金融衍生品,论文系统地介绍了金融数学中一些描述资产行为的经典模型,并从数学与计算机仿真的角度,由浅入深地介绍期权定价的计算方法.首先介绍了欧式期权及其研究的必要性,并给出了相关的金融名词的解释,最后估计了期权价值的上下界.     

An Approach to Quantify the Heat Wave Strength and Price a Heat Derivative for Risk Hedging

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1 ×0.1 latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.     

可持续发展背景下的黑碳减排

 黑碳气溶胶是环境大气中浓度较低的一种气溶胶粒子组分,因其对光的吸收作用,及其对空气质量和人体健康的影响,而成为当前国际气候变化和环境研究中关注的热点问题之一。本文围绕黑碳的减排问题,介绍黑碳的来源、全球分布,讨论全球温室气体减排和区域空气质量控制对黑碳减排的影响,综述控制和改善燃烧条件、减少开放式生物质燃烧和黑碳封存等减排黑碳的措施。文章还分析了黑碳未能成为全球减排共识的原因,并对中国有关黑碳减排的政策选择提出了建议。