影响夏季西北太平洋副热带高压年际变率的关键海区及影响机制

西北太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)是影响东亚夏季气候的主要环流系统,其年际变率受热带多个海区的海-气相互作用过程的调控。为明确影响夏季西太副高的关键海区及其影响机制,在总结最近十余年来相关研究进展的基础上,归纳出影响夏季西太副高年际变率的5个关键海区,包括赤道中东太平洋、热带印度洋、副热带西北太平洋、海洋大陆附近海区以及热带大西洋。阐述了这5个关键海区的海温异常影响西太副高年际变率的机制,并探讨了5个关键海区海温异常的形成机制。围绕夏季西太副高的年际变率,回顾了当前气候模式的模拟和预测研究的现状。最后,提出了本领域亟待解决的关键科学问题,展望未来可能的研究热点。     

伽马射线暴的光度-光变复杂度关系

伽马射线暴的光变复杂度是描述其光变曲线复杂程度的物理量.由已知红移的伽马射线暴,Reichart等人发现其光变复杂度与各向同性光度之间有正相关性(LαVα,α在1.77～3.5之间),即光变越复杂,光度越高.此相关性类似于造父变星的周光关系,可用来估计伽马暴的距离和红移.调研、分析了各种光变复杂度的定义、算法和光变复杂度-各向同性光度关系的拟合结果,最后对光变复杂度和光度之间的关系做了总结和展望.     

Fish trapping experiments in Northern New Zealand waters

Fish trapping experiments were carried out during 1973–75 along the north‐east coast of the North Island. The most effective trap type was the Z‐trap. Two sizes of Z‐trap were tested. Better results were obtained with the larger ones, which had an overall mean catch rate of 8.4 fish/trap day. The catch rate varied widely between areas, bottom types, and seasons. Best results were obtained in summer in depths greater than 20 m.     

On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

During the last decade, the southeastern Bering Sea shelf has undergone a warming of 3 °C that is closely associated with a marked decrease of sea ice over the area. This shift in the physical environment of the shelf can be attributed to a combination of mechanisms, including the presence over the eastern Bering Sea shelf of a relatively mild air mass during the winter, especially from 2000 to 2005; a shorter ice season caused by a later fall transition and/or an earlier spring transition; increased flow through Unimak Pass during winter, which introduces warm Gulf of Alaska water onto the southeastern shelf; and the feedback mechanism whereby warmer ocean temperatures during the summer delay the southward advection of sea ice during winter. While the relative importance of these four mechanisms is difficult to quantify, it is evident that for sea ice to form, cold arctic winds must cool the water column. Sea ice is then formed in the polynyas during periods of cold north winds, and this ice is advected southward over the eastern shelf. The other three mechanisms can modify ice formation and melt, and hence its extent. In combination, these four mechanisms have served to temporally and spatially limit ice during the 5-year period (2001–2005). Warming of the eastern Bering Sea shelf could have profound influences on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea—from modification of the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom to the northward advance of subarctic species and the northward retreat of arctic species.     

On the variability of afterglows from cosmic gamma-ray bursts—the possibility of a transition to a nonrelativistic motion

Variability on time scales δt < t is observed on numerous occasions in the afterglows of cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). It is well known that the radiation originating in an external shock produced by the interaction of an ultrarelativistic jet with the ambient interstellar medium should not contain such variability within the framework of simple models. The corresponding constraints were established by Ioka et al. (2005) and, in some instances, are inconsistent with observations. On the other hand, if the motion is not relativistic, then the rapid afterglow variability can be explained much more easily. Various estimates of the transition time to a nonrelativistic motion in a GRB source are discussed in this connection. It has been shown that this transition should occur on an observed time scale of ～10 days. In the case of a higher density of the surrounding material, ～10²?10⁴ cm^?3, or a stellar wind with ? ～ 10^?5?10^?4 M _⊙ yr^?1, the transition to a nonrelativistic motion can occur on a time scale of ～1 day. Such densities may well be expected in star-forming regions and around massive Wolf-Rayet stars.     

土壤入渗特性的空间变异性及土壤转换函数

以在杨陵一级阶地上进行的入渗试验为基础,利用多重分形和联合多重分形方法,研究分析了土壤入渗特性在多尺度上的空间变异性及与土壤物理特性的相关性,并在此基础上建立了土壤入渗特性的土壤转换函数。研究表明:土壤入渗特性具有多重分形特征,观测尺度上,稳定入渗率、前30 min累积入渗量的空间变异都主要由粗粉粒和粘粒含量的空间变异造成。在多尺度上,稳定入渗率的空间变异受土壤容重、粗粉粒和粘粒含量的空间分布影响显著,前30 min累积入渗量的空间变异受粗粉粒和粘粒含量的空间分布影响显著,与观测尺度上的影响因素相同。基于联合多重分形分析建立的稳定入渗率的土壤转换函数的计算误差较小,前30 min累积入渗量的土壤转换函数的计算误差较大。     

Intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in COMRA’s contract area in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone

In this paper, the intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in the China Ocean Mineral Resources Association (COMRA) polymetallic nodule contact area, located in the western part of the Clarion and Clipperton Fraction Zone in the tropical East Pacific, is investigated using direct observations from subsurface mooring instruments as well as sea-surface height data and reanalysis products. Mooring observations were conducted from September 13, 2017 to August 15, 2018 in the COMRA contact area (10°N, 154°W). The results were as follows: (1) At depths below 200 m, the kinetic energy of intra-seasonal variability (20?100 d) accounts for more than 40% of the overall low-frequency variability, while the ratio reaches more than 50% below 2 000 m. (2) At depths below 200 m, currents show a synchronous oscillation with a characteristic time scale of 30 d, lasting from October to the following January; the energy of the 30-d oscillation increases with depth until the layer of approximately 4 616 m, and the maximum velocity is approximately 10 cm/s. (3) The 30-d oscillation of deep currents is correlated with the tropical instability waves in the upper ocean.     

秦岭南北降雪异常空间模态识别及其影响因素分析

识别降雪异常空间模态,明晰降雪异常的影响因素,对理解中国南北过渡带气候变化规律具有重要的实践意义。论文基于1970—2020年逐日气象数据,辅以湿球温度动态阈值法、经验正交分解法等气候诊断方法,对秦岭南北冷季(11月—次年5月)降雪异常空间模态进行识别,探讨了不同主导模态与海气异常的相关关系。结果表明：(1)秦岭南北冷季降雪异常存在2个主导模态。第1模态为“全区一致型”,降雪异常偏强区分布于关中平原、秦岭山地、汉江谷地和大巴山区东段;第2模态为“山地主导下降型”,反映山地降雪异常对气候变化的敏感性;(2)在时间变化上,第1模态以年际波动为主,20世纪90年代中期后,空间模态多处于负相位,即全区一致降雪偏少;第2模态以年代转折为主,近期空间模态多处于正相位,即山地降雪异常偏少;(3)在影响因素上,第1模态降雪异常与1月中高纬度500 hPa欧亚遥相关波列相关,第2模态降雪异常与冬季赤道中东太平洋海温异常密切相关。研究将降雪异常格局与环流异常机制组合研究,可为理解中国南北过渡带降雪异常预警信号提供理论基础。     

暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展

暴雨山洪灾害预警是中小流域山洪灾害防控体系的薄弱环节,也是决定山洪灾害防控成败的关键。论文围绕山洪灾害预警的核心问题,从中国山洪灾害区域差异特征、山洪灾害预警技术方法、山洪灾害概率预警现状3个方面进行了综述。中国山洪灾害分布存在明显的时空差异,因此有必要根据山洪灾害的区域差异发展有针对性的预警方法。以临界雨量为指标的雨量预警是目前中国中小流域暴雨山洪灾害预警的主要技术手段,但常规方法仅给出一个(组)确定的临界雨量阈值,导致预警结果存在突出的不确定性问题。概率预警可以定量评估诸多不确定性,给出山洪灾害概率预警结果,因此具备很好的理论优势与潜在应用价值。论文展望了山洪灾害概率预警未来的研究重点与方向：(1)充分挖掘暴雨洪水样本信息,开展山洪灾害概率预警基础方法与技术集成研究;(2)加强非平稳性条件下的临界雨量阈值估算与山洪灾害概率预警研究;(3)综合考虑预警阈值发生概率及其致灾概率,优化“多级预警、多级响应”技术方法,推进山洪灾害综合预警业务系统建设与应用。     

参加CMIP5的四个中国气候模式模拟的东亚冬季风年际变率

本文比较了中国参加“国际耦合模式比较计划”（CMIP5）的四个大气环流模式（即FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2、BCC-CSM1-1、BNU-ESM大气模式）在观测海温驱动下,对东亚冬季风（EAWM）气候态和年际变率的模拟能力。结果表明,在气候态上,四个模式均合理再现了EAWM高低层环流系统（包括低层西伯利亚高压（SH）、阿留申低压、异常偏北风、和中高层东亚大槽、西风急流）,其中对2 m气温和500 hPa高度场的模拟技巧最高,四个模式模拟的结果与再分析资料的空间相关系数都达到0.99。在年际变率上,分别对东亚北部地区（30°N～60°N,100°E～140°E）和东亚南部地区（0°～30°N,100°E～140°E）的2 m气温进行经验正交函数分解（EOF）,提取变率主导模态。结果表明,在东亚北部地区,四个模式对2 m气温第一模态（简称“北部型”）的空间分布均有很高的模拟技巧,但只有BNU-ESM能够较好再现其对应的年际变率,其模拟的时间序列与观测的相关系数为0.69。四个模式均能模拟出观测中的3.1 a主导周期,但只有FGOALS-s2和BNU-ESM能模拟出观测中的2.5 a主导周期。在东亚南部地区,模式模拟的前两个主模态共同解释观测中第一模态（简称“南部型”）的特征,其中FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2和BNU-ESM的综合模拟技巧较高,但只有BNU-ESM成功再现了观测中2.5 a和3.1 a的主导周期。机理分析表明,FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2、BNU-ESM三个模式能合理再现菲律宾海反气旋,同时对南部型有较高的模拟能力,而BCC-CSM1-1则未能有效再现菲律宾海反气旋,使得 BCC-CSM1-1对南部型模拟技巧较低。观测和四个模式模拟的结果一致表现出北极涛动（AO）与北部型PC1呈显著相关,影响大于SH。