A 200-year precipitation index for the central English Lake District / Un indice de précipitation de 200 ans pour la Région des Lacs en Angleterre

Abstract

Abstract The geographical context and hydroclimatology of the English Lake District means that the region is an important monitor of changes to nationally significant environmental assets. Using monthly rainfall series for sites in and around the central Lake District, a continuous ~200-year precipitation index was constructed for a representative station close to Grasmere. The bridged series shows a significant decline in summer rainfall since the 1960s, offset by increases in winter and spring that are strongly linked to North Atlantic forcing. Over longer time periods, the index exhibits several notable dry (1850s, 1880s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s) and wet (1820s, 1870s, 1920s, 1940s, 1990s) decades. These patterns are strongly reflected by reservoir inflow series and by indicators of the biological status of the region’s freshwater lakes. It is argued that long-term climate indices will become increasingly important as managers seek to evaluate recent and project environmental changes within the context of long-term natural variability.     

Generation of correlated properties in heterogeneous porous media

The spatial distribution of rock properties in porous media, such as permeability and porosity, often is strongly variable. Therefore, these properties usefully may be considered as a random field. However, this variability is correlated frequently on length scales comparable to geological lengths (for example, scales of sand bodies or facies). To solve various engineering problems (for example, in the oil recovery process) numerical models of a porous medium often are used. A need exists then to understand correlated random fields and to generate them over discretized numerical grids. The paper describes the general mathematical methods required to do this, with one particular method (the nearest neighbor model) described in detail. How parameters of the mathematical model may be related to rock property statistics for the nearest neighbor model is shown. The method is described in detail in one, two, and three dimensions. Examples are given of how model parameters may be determined from real data.     

Modeling long term lake variations by physically based stochastic dynamic models

Several physically based stochastic dynamic models (SDM) are described including year-to-year variations of water volume in terminal and non-terminal lakes, streamflow of lake-fed rivers, and salinity of an inland sea (the Sea of Azov). All of these models are based upon the SDM of water volume of terminal lakes developed by Kritzky and Menkel in 1946 in co-operation with Kolomogorov. Explicit formulae are derived for second order statistical moments of the output processes, including variance, correlation function, spectra, etc., under the assumption that the forcing functions from stationary random sequences. The least-squares prediction problem is solved for both stationary and non-stationary cases. Some of the processes are shown to possess high statistical predictability. Actual predictions are compared with independent observations. Problems for further study are stated.     

Interannual variability of monsoons in Malaysia and its relationship with ENSO

Interannual variations of the monsoons have been studied utilising homogeneous rainfall records of 41 years (1951–1991) from Malaysia and upper air data of stations in Asia, Australia and Western Pacific. Sources of upper air data are U.S. Department of Commerce and Kuala Lumpur Northern Winter Monsoon Activity Centre. Extreme wet and dry years have been identified and the influence of ENSO on Malaysian annual rainfall has been discussed. Influence of ENSO on the performance of northern summer and winter monsoons has also been studied from Malaysian rainfall data. Further, regional circulation patterns associated with El Nino and La Nina years have also been identified. No linear trend has been found in the annual rainfall of 16 stations in Malaysia. Most El Nino years are associated with below median and La Nina years with above median rainfall at most stations in Malaysia. ENSO has greater influence over East Malaysia than peninsular Malaysia. Interannual variability of rainfall with reference to ENSO conditions has been discussed in details. Also, circulation features have been identified to foresee El Nino/La Nina events.     

Applications of satellite data in the study of monsoon variability

This paper discusses the use of satellite data for studying climate change, with particular emphasis on the inter-annual variability of the Indian southwest monsoon. Precipitation estimates made from INSAT-1B radiance data are shown to bring out the variations that occurred in the monsoon rainfall of 1987 and 1988. Outgoing Longwave Radiation derived from INSAT-1B shows good correspondence with precipitation patterns.     

含水层渗透系数K的空间变异性研究

本文结合桥梁实例对公路双曲拱桥出现的一些主要病害进行了初步分析，并进而对桥梁状况提出评定意见和处理建议，仅供参考。     

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.     

Variation among fossil chironomid assemblages in surficial sediments of Bodensee-Untersee (SW-Germany): implications for paleolimnological interpretation

In paleolimnology, subfossil head capsules of chironomids play an important role as ecological indicators of lake history. It is important to determine, therefore, whether fossil assemblages are representative of former biocoenoses. There is evidence that headcapsules washed in from other places can make up a significant percentage of the total. As interpretations are usually drawn from the examination of a single core, it is of special interest to know whether a fossil assemblage of a single site properly reflects limnological conditions of the whole lake. This study examined the taxonomic distribution of subfossil chironomids in the surficial sediments of the Bodensee-Untersee, with the aim of assessing the variability in chironomid assemblages. Apparently, most of the head capsules of the profundal fossil assemblages in the Untersee had been washed in from the littoral zone or from the slope. Although the Bodensee-Untersee is a rather large lake, variability is surprisingly low among all samples. Therefore a correct interpretation from a single core may be possible.     

Spatial uniformity of sediment accumulation in varved lake sediments in northern Sweden

As part of an investigation aimed at assessing the potential of northern Swedish varved lake sediments for fine-resolution reconstruction of past climatic conditions, the following questions were addressed; how representative is a single core, does the appearance of varves change as the sediment ages, and how can varve thickness and within-varve structures be digitized? Analyses of replicate cores from Kassjön, using sample sequences of seasonal, annual and centennial time resolution, show that spatial variability of sediment accumulation in the varved sediment is very low. Comparisons of intensity curves from image analysis of freeze cores of recent sediments from Lake Nylandssjön, sampled in 1980 and 1985, indicate that the varves acquire their appearance at the sediment-water interface during sedimentation and that the varve structures are preserved during diagenetic processes. Measurement of varve thicknesses with a tree-ring microscope and with image analysis gave similar results. However, with image analysis, within-varve structures such as colour variations and thicknesses of seasonal layers, can also be recorded, increasing the possibilities for palaeolimnological and palaeoclimatic inferences.