An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Verification of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model when Forecasting Daily Surface Conditions in Southern Alberta

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was compared with daily surface observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model in forecasting surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and direction. Daily forecasts for the following two days were produced at nine locations across southern Alberta, Canada. Model output was verified using station observations to determine the differences in forecast accuracy for each season.

Although there were seasonal differences in the WRF model, the summer season forecasts generally had the greatest accuracy, determined by the lowest root mean square errors, whereas the winter season forecasts were the least accurate. The WRF model generally produced skillful forecasts throughout the year although with a smaller diurnal temperature range than observed. The WRF model forecast the prevailing wind direction more accurately than other directions, but it tended to slightly overestimate precipitation amounts. A sensitivity analysis consisting of three microphysics schemes showed relatively minor differences between simulated precipitation as well as 2?m surface temperatures.     

非差误差改正信息的大范围单历元网络差分方法

针对网络差分方法多采用双差模型,但双差模型在实现时不够灵活的问题,提出一种基于非差误差改正信息的大范围单历元网络差分方法。此方法能够克服双差网络差分模型的缺点,用户不需要选择一个参考站作为主参考站,更不需要主参考站的观测数据进行双差组合,从而减少了数据传输量,作业方式更加自由、灵活,且算法简单、作业范围大。大范围区域内的流动站用户利用非差误差改正数进行误差改正,然后可实现单历元网络差分定位。实验表明,该方法可完成大范围单历元网络差分定位,并能够得到分米级精度的定位结果。     

BCC S2S模式对亚洲夏季风准双周振荡预报评估

利用1994-2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心（BCC）次季节到季节尺度模式（S2S）1994-2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡（QBWO）预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源。结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QBWO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QBWO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QBWO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件。     

基于GPT3模型的ZTD及PWV反演精度分析

使用亚洲区域18个IGS测站和中国区域内16个探空站2016~2018年的数据,研究GPT3模型反演天顶对流层延迟（ZTD）和大气可降水量（PWV）的精度,并与其他GPT系列模型进行对比。结果表明,GPT3-1模型估计的ZTD的bias均值和最大值均最小,分别为1.34 mm和14.06 mm;GPT3模型整体精度略优于GPT2w模型,优于GPT2模型。探空站处GPT3模型反演的PWV的bias和RMSE均表现出较强的季节性特征;由GPT3模型反演的PWV的月均值可知,GPT3-1模型比GPT3-5模型具有更高的精度和稳定性。     

IMPROVED FORECASTING OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH OROGRAPHIC GRAVITY WAVE DRAG PARAMETERIZATION

The parameterization of gravity wave drag induced by sub-grid scale orography(GWDO), which has been used in the regional model based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM), is extended to include the effect of mountain flow blocking drag(MBD). The extended scheme is evaluated against non-GWDO parameterization, including a cold air outbreak over southern China and a monthly verification in February 2012. The experiment results show that the GWDO and MBD parameterization both improves the forecasting of the cold air outbreaks over southern China, as well as alleviations of system bias of GRAPES_TMM.(1) The extended scheme alleviates the strong southerly wind and high surface temperature simulation during the cold air outbreak, especially over northern Guangxi and Guangdong(NGG) province, where local high surface temperature simulation reduces nearly 5 degree.(2) The MBD parameterization improves southerly wind simulations over NGG, as well as surface temperature forecasts improvement over Guangxi, Guizhou province and southern Yunnan-Guizhou plateau(YUP), and low level southerly wind simulation improvement over intertidal zone over south China.(3) The formation of MBD is mainly in the mountain area(Wuyi, Daba mountain, east of YUP) and coastal area. The MBD over plateau, which is mainly formed at the west of 105°E, is stronger and thicker than that over Nanling mountain.(4) The improvement of GWDO and MBD parameterization is stable in model physics. MBD parameterization demonstrates more overall improvements in the forecasts than GWDO, and the larger of the model forecast error is, the greater improvements of MBD contribute to. Overall, the extended GWDO scheme successfully improves the simulations of meteorological elements forecasting during cold air outbreaks.     

基于IGS超快星历预报卫星钟差及其精度分析

在实时GPS精密单点定位中,能否快速有效地得到高精度的卫星钟差预报值是影响实时单点定位速度和精度的一个重要因素,由于GPS原子钟的高频率、高敏感和极易受到外界及其本身因素影响的性质使得卫星钟差预报至今都没能得到很好地解决,本文在目前的卫星钟差预报基础上,分别探讨了利用灰色模型理论、线性模型和二次多项式模型等方法,以IGS超快星历中2004年12月7日卫星钟差观测资料预报8日的卫星钟差为例进行卫星钟差预报研究,初步得出如下结论:在利用IGS超快星历的前一天的卫星钟差观测值预报后一天的钟差时,线性模型相对方便有效;而灰色模型只要选取合适的模型指数系数,能得到较高精度;但二次多项式模型预报精度较差。利用线性模型能达到或优于IGS超快星历预报钟差的预报精度。     

Copper Isotopic Analysis in Geological and Biological Reference Materials by MC‐ICP‐MS

The characterisation of relative copper isotope amount ratios (δ⁶⁵Cu) helps constrain a variety of geochemical processes occurring in the geosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere. The accurate and precise determination of δ⁶⁵Cu in matrix reference materials is crucial in the effort to validate measurement methods. With the goal of expanding the number and variety of available geological and biological materials, we have characterised the δ⁶⁵Cu values of ten reference materials by MC‐ICP‐MS using C‐SSBIN model for mass bias correction. SGR‐1b (Green River shale), DOLT‐5 (dogfish liver), DORM‐4 (fish protein), TORT‐3 (lobster hepatopancreas), MESS‐4 (marine sediment) and PACS‐3 (marine sediment) have for the first time been characterised for δ⁶⁵Cu. Additionally, four reference materials (with published δ⁶⁵Cu values) have been characterised: BHVO‐1 (Hawaiian basalt), BIR‐1 (Icelandic basalt), W‐2a (diabase) and Seronorm? Trace Elements Serum L‐1 (human serum). The reference materials measured in this study possess complex and varied matrices with copper mass fractions ranging from 1.2 µg g^?1 to 497 µg g^?1 and δ⁶⁵Cu values ranging from ?0.20‰ to 0.52‰ with a mean expanded uncertainty of ± 0.07‰ (U, k = 2), covering much of the natural copper isotope variability observed in the environment.     

Guidelines on the use of structure-from-motion photogrammetry in geomorphic research

As a topographic modelling technique, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry combines the utility of digital photogrammetry with a flexibility and ease of use derived from multi-view computer vision methods. In conjunction with the rapidly increasing availability of imagery, particularly from unmanned aerial vehicles, SfM photogrammetry represents a powerful tool for geomorphological research. However, to fully realize this potential, its application must be carefully underpinned by photogrammetric considerations, surveys should be reported in sufficient detail to be repeatable (if practical) and results appropriately assessed to understand fully the potential errors involved. To deliver these goals, robust survey and reporting must be supported through (i) using appropriate survey design, (ii) applying suitable statistics to identify systematic error (bias) and to estimate precision within results, and (iii) propagating uncertainty estimates into the final data products. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

卫星钟差采样间隔对高频PPP-ZTD精度的影响

高频对流层延迟（ZTD）的提取对于反映水汽含量的高时间分辨率瞬时变化及其在暴雨短临预报中的应用具有重要意义。基于精密单点定位技术（PPP）分析了不同采样间隔的卫星钟差对PPP-ZTD精度的影响。结果表明,卫星钟差的时间间隔小于30 s时,所获得的PPP-ZTD(RMS<4 mm)比5 min间隔的（RMS<6 mm）精度要高;而5 s与30 s采样间隔的卫星钟差所获得的ZTD精度相当。