径向基函数神经网络在GPS卫星钟差预报中的应用

GPS卫星钟在空中很容易受到诸多因素的影响,导致其钟差行为很难用线性模型,二次多项式模型,灰色模型等现有模型进行描述和实现可靠的高精度预报。本文利用径向基函数神经网络对几颗GPS卫星钟差连续进行了五分钟、一小时和一天的预报,分别取得了均方根误差优于0.4ns,0.5ns和1ns的预报精度,证明了文中径向基网络结构在钟差预报方面的可靠性。     

广东省第4、5天分县气温预报及其误差分析

利用欧洲中心数值预报产品,采用完全预报方法(PP法)分季节建立广东省分县第4、5天最高、最低气温预报方程,并进行误差检验和分析.结果表明:误差大小有明显的季节差异,并具有一定的地域分布特点;最低气温的预报效果明显好于最高气温,夏秋季最低气温、夏季最高气温的平均绝对误差均小于2℃,具有较高的参考价值.逐日误差与天气密切相...     

LICOM Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

The datasets of two Ocean Model Intercomparison Project(OMIP)simulation experiments from the LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model,version 3(LICOM3),forced by two different sets of atmospheric surface data,are described in this paper.The experiment forced by CORE-II(Co-ordinated Ocean–Ice Reference Experiments,Phase II)data(1948–2009)is called OMIP1,and that forced by JRA55-do(surface dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models based on Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis)data(1958–2018)is called OMIP2.First,the improvement of LICOM from CMIP5 to CMIP6 and the configurations of the two experiments are described.Second,the basic performances of the two experiments are validated using the climatological-mean and interannual time scales from observation.We find that the mean states,interannual variabilities,and long-term linear trends can be reproduced well by the two experiments.The differences between the two datasets are also discussed.Finally,the usage of these data is described.These datasets are helpful toward understanding the origin system bias of the fully coupled model.     

华南前汛期强降水个例模式降水预报误差成因初探

2015年5月19—20日,华南出现一次暴雨过程。检验表明欧洲中期天气预报中心全球确定性预报模式(以下简称EC模式)预报的20日强降水落区在广东境内较实况明显偏北,高估了天气尺度系统附近的降水强度,漏报了其南侧暖区内中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective system,MCS)造成的降水,华东中尺度模式预报明显优于EC模式。利用高分辨率中尺度天气研究预报模式(以下简称WRF模式)对该暴雨过程进行了模拟,对比EC模式降水物理过程,初步探索了EC模式降水预报误差的成因,结果表明:20日位于广东暖区内的对流组织发展成MCS,并造成明显的低层冷池出流和中高层潜热加热,二者共同作用使得中低层气旋式环流在广东中东部发展,配合其南侧的强西南风水汽输送,在气旋式切变附近不断触发新的对流并南移使得广东中南部暖区内出现强降水,WRF模式能较好地模拟出该过程,而EC模式未能预报出暖区对流及其反馈,从而导致其漏报了广东中南部的强降水;EC模式预报的降水与天气尺度环流之间的正反馈进一步加大了降水的预报偏差。EC模式预报的20日白天的强降水主要位于华南北部切变线附近,且以层状云降水为主,降水产生的潜热使得对流层低层切变线附近减压更明显,预报的切变线辐合较分析场明显偏强,使得其预报的切变线附近降水较实况偏强。     

TREND OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE THE 1960S

1INTRODUCTIONOneoftheeffectsofglobalwarmingisthatprecipita-tionhasincreasedoversomeareasintheworld,andthegaugedataofprecipitation (excludingAntarctica)showthatglobalprecipitationhasincreasedslightlybyabout9mmforthe20thcentury, whichwas verysmallcomparedwiththeinterannualandmul-ti-decadalvariability(NEWetal.,2001).Butregion-ally,thereexisted agreatdealofdifferences,suchasinmostpartsofAfrica, Amazon,westernSouthAmerica,theweatherhasbecomedrier,andinmostpartsofEuropeandCanada,thereexisted…     

The Application of a Meteo-hydrological Forecasting System with Rainfall Bias Correction in a Small and Medium-sized Catchment

Meteo-hydrological forecasting models are an effective way to generate high-resolution gridded rainfall data for water source research and flood forecast. The quality of rainfall data in terms of both intensity and distribution is very important for establishing a reliable meteo-hydrological forecasting model. To improve the accuracy of rainfall data, the successive correction method is introduced to correct the bias of rainfall, and a meteo-hydrological forecasting model based on WRF and WRF-Hydro is applied for streamflow forecast over the Zhanghe River catchment in China. The performance of WRF rainfall is compared with the China Meteorological Administration Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System (CMPAS), and the simulated streamflow from the model is further studied. It shows that the corrected WRF rainfall is more similar to the CMPAS in both temporal and spatial distribution than the original WRF rainfall. By contrast, the statistical metrics of the corrected WRF rainfall are better. When the corrected WRF rainfall is used to drive the WRF-Hydro model, the simulated streamflow of most events is significantly improved in both hydrographs and volume than that of using the original WRF rainfall. Among the studied events, the largest improvement of the NSE is from -0.68 to 0.67. It proves that correcting the bias of WRF rainfall with the successive correction method can greatly improve the performance of streamflow forecast. In general, the WRF / WRF-Hydro meteo-hydrological forecasting model based on the successive correction method has the potential to provide better streamflow forecast in the Zhanghe River catchment.     

低纹波低功耗自动控制APD偏压电路

全站仪红外测距系统接收电路采用APD雪崩光电二极管作为接收器件,它的精度对后级的信号处理及测量精度起着决定性的影响,针对其高精度要求,提出两种APD偏压电路。前者采用交流反馈网络消除冲击电压,提高了开关管寿命,采用三级滤波网络极大的降低了电路纹波从而提高了测量精度;后者采用专用芯片控制电路电源,使储能电感处于非连续工作状态,大大降低了电路的功耗,同时采用4个变容二极管既升高了电压,又减小了纹波。两种电路均具有可自动控制,且能对APD的内部增益进行全范围补偿的优点。实践证明,电路工作性能理想,提高了测距精度。     

Secular change in lifetime of granitic crust and the continental growth: A new view from detrital zircon ages of sandstones

U-Pb ages of detrital zircons were newly dated for 4 Archean sandstones from the Pilbara craton in Australia, Wyoming craton in North America, and Kaapvaal craton in Africa. By using the present results with previously published data, we compiled the age spectra of detrital zircons for 2.9, 2.6, 2.3,1.0, and0.6 Ga sandstones and modern river sands in order to document the secular change in age structure of continental crusts through time. The results demonstrated the following episodes in the history of continental crust:(1) low growth rate of the continents due to the short cycle in production/destruction of granitic crust during the Neoarchean to Paleoproterozoic(2.9-23 Ga),(2) net increase in volume of the continents during Paleo-to Mesoproterozoic(2.3-1.0 Ga), and(3) net decrease in volume of the continents during the Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic(after 1.0 Ga). In the Archean and Paleoproterozoic, the embryonic continents were smaller than the modern continents, probably owing to the relatively rapid production and destruction of continental crust. This is indeed reflected in the heterogeneous crustal age structure of modern continents that usually have relatively small amount of Archean crusts with respect to the post-Archean ones. During the Mesoproterozoic, plural continents amalgamated into larger ones comparable to modern continental blocks in size. Relatively older crusts were preserved in continental interiors, whereas younger crusts were accreted along continental peripheries.In addition to continental arc magmatism, the direct accretion of intra-oceanic island arc around continental peripheries also became important for net continental growth. Since 1.0 Ga, total volume of continents has decreased, and this appears consistent with on-going phenomena along modern active arc-trench system with dominant tectonic erosion and/or arc subduction. Subduction of a huge amount of granitic crusts into the mantle through time is suggested, and this requires re-consideration of the mantle composition and heterogeneity.     

多波束测深系统时延偏差探测及校正方法

在利用多波束测深系统进行高精度海底地形测量时,各传感器之间数据采集时间不同步的问题,即存在时延偏差,这将会直接影响多波束测深数据质量,为此提出了一种基于最小二乘原理的多波束测深时延偏差探测及校正方法,给出了时延偏差探测及校正计算模型,设计了时延偏差探测及校正流程,通过实例分析,验证了所提方法的适用性和有效性。     

GFE(L)1型二次测风雷达位势米和几何米偏差分析

GFE（L）1型二次测风雷达探空观测过程中,有时监控界面显示区位势米（气高）和几何米（高度）之间差值会偏大,甚至达4000～5000 m,远远超出正常范围,记录明显异常,经常导致观察员处理记录困难。该文针对造成偏差的各种主要可能原因及相关原理进行了比较详细的分析,对各种原因可能产生的误差范围进行了测算和归类,提供了不同情况下出现记录大偏差时的分析思路和重点考虑方向,并对偏差明显的记录提出了一些符合规范要求的处理方法,供相关工作人员和研究人员参考。