新疆博州气象条件对棉花产量的影响分析

气象条件对棉花产量有着明显的影响,分析总结博州棉花生产受气象条件影响的关键因子和关键时段,将为保证博州棉花高产稳产提供科学依据。本文利用新疆博州1997－2012年的棉花产量、生育期、和气象资料,采用直线回归拟合方法分离出气象产量,并与棉花全生育期内各时段的气象要素进行相关分析,总结出博州棉花生产受气象条件影响的关键因子和关键时段。结果表明,4月中、下旬播种出苗期,降水和日照是影响博州棉花产量的主要影响因子;５月幼苗期,降雨日数和日照时数是影响棉花产量的关键因子;６月处于五叶和现蕾期,气温和日照是影响棉花产量的关键因子;7月是博州最热的季节,棉花处于开花期,并开始结铃,降水和气温是影响棉花生长的关键因素;8-９月棉花裂铃和吐絮期,博州出现影响棉铃生长的高温干旱和低温寡照天气不明显。最后针对博州棉花生产提出了气象服务重点工作建议,为搞好气象为农服务,为博州棉花高产稳产提供了科学依据。     

Attribution of Maize Yield Increase in China to Climate Change and Technological Advancement Between 1980 and 2010

Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement. Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change. In this study, daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010, detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010, and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, are used to explore the attribution of maize (Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement. In the AEZ model, the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels: photosynthetic potential productivity, photosynthetic thermal potential productivity, and climatic potential productivity. The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated. Combined with the observations of maize, the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated. The results show that, from 1961 to 2010, climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China. Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity. However, changes in precipitation had only a small effect. The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years, which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity. This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%, while climate change contribution was from-41.4% to 0.4%. In particular, the actual maize yields in Shandong, Henan, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4, 90.4, 98.7, and 121.5 kg hm^-2 yr^-1 over the past 30 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7, 97.9, 111.5, and 124.8 kg hm^-2 yr^-1, respectively. On the contrary, maize yields reduced markedly under climate change, with an average reduction of-9.0 kg hm^-2 yr^-1. Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.     

敦煌气候条件及对棉花产量因素的影响

甘肃敦煌地区气候条件虽然适宜棉花生长,但热量条件处于棉花正常生长适宜指标的下线,对棉花的产量和质量具有较大影响。利用敦煌市国家基准气象观测站1983~2012年农业气象观测资料,统计分析了敦煌棉花全生育期气象条件对棉花的株铃数、单铃重及僵烂铃率、蕾铃脱落率及产量的影响。结果表明：棉花花蕾期气温、花后热量和花期气温、裂铃吐絮阶段灌水量是造成棉花僵烂铃和蕾铃脱落的主要原因。花铃期的平均气温越高,热量越充足,越有利于棉铃数的增加;7月上旬至8月中旬夜温不足降低了棉株矿物质和贮存物的积累速率,导致花蕾及胚珠发育不良,单铃胚珠数减少;盛夏7月中旬高温造成棉铃代谢紊乱,导致单铃不孕,造成株铃数不足和单铃重下降,进而影响棉花产量。     

Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield and connectivity in a semi-arid catchment with the WASA-SED model

Abstract

Rainfall–runoff induced soil erosion causes important environmental degradation by reducing soil fertility and impacting on water availability as a consequence of sediment deposition in surface reservoirs used for water supply, particularly in semi-arid areas. However, erosion models developed on experimental plots cannot be directly applied to estimate sediment yield at the catchment scale, since sediment redistribution is also controlled by the transport conditions along the landscape. In particular, representation of landscape connectivity relating to sediment transfer from upslope areas to the river network is required. In this study, the WASA-SED model is used to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of water and sediment connectivity for a semi-arid meso-scale catchment (933 km²) in Brazil. It is shown how spatial and temporal patterns of sediment connectivity within the catchment change as a function of landscape and event characteristics. This explains the nonlinear catchment response in terms of sediment yield at the outlet.

Citation Medeiros, P. H. A., Güntner, A., Francke, T., Mamede, G. L. & de Araújo, J. C. (2010) Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield and connectivity in a semi-arid catchment with the WASA-SED model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 636–648.     

Effects of placer mining on suspended sediment budget: case study of north of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula

Abstract

Placer mines are located in river valleys, along river benches, or along the pathways of ancient channels. Open-pit mining alters the stream hydrology and enhances sediment transport. The present study focuses on sediment transport in the area of the platinum placer mining located at the north of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula (Seynav-Galmoenan placer deposits). Based on hydrological field investigations, a conceptual model was derived to assess anthropogenic effects on the total sediment budget of rivers. The model illustrates key processes controlling sediment dynamics in the Vyvenka River basin. Field work included water-discharge and sediment-load measurements, assessment of annual channel change in rivers in mining site areas, and evaluation of the relative importance of sediment sources and transport processes. In this study, we estimated total sediment delivery from opencast placer mining of 60 t year^-1; the annual mass wasting rate ranges from 2 to 5.5 kg m^-2 year^-1, which is three orders of magnitude higher than from non-mined streams. Mass wasting dominates surface erosion on the hillslopes and produces significant wastewater effluents; however, erosion of the artificially stratified channel reaches is the primary contributor to the annual sediment yield of the mined rivers (21.4%).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Chalov, S.R., 2014. Effects of placer mining on suspended sediment budget: case study of north of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1081–1094.     

Targeting of intervention areas to reduce reservoir sedimentation in the Tana catchment (Kenya) using SWAT

Abstract

A measurement campaign was carried out in the Upper Tana basin (Kenya) to quantify soil erosion and reservoir sedimentation rates, including a bathymetric reservoir survey and sediment load sampling during one year. Then, distributed soil erosion modelling was performed to study sediment budgets throughout the basin and to evaluate the potential of upstream erosion control through vegetated contour strips and check dams. Finally, the areas where these measures would be most effective were identified and local stakeholder associations to implement them were prioritized. The influence of the scale of implementation was evaluated by using the model to consider three adoption scenarios. This study illustrates the relevance of distributed erosion models to target erosion control measures when sufficient information on the eroding areas is available from field surveys. Bathymetric surveys were fundamental to validate the long-term model response, while point measurements were valuable to verify the spatial variability of model predictions.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor G. Mahé

Citation Hunink, J.E., Niadas, I.A., Antonaropoulos, P., Droogers, P., and de Vente, J., 2013. Targeting of intervention areas to reduce reservoir sedimentation in the Tana catchment (Kenya) using SWAT. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 600–614.     

Physically-based distributed soil erosion and sediment yield model (DREAM) for simulating individual storm events

Abstract

A relatively simple process-oriented, physically-based distributed (PBD) hydrological model, the distributed runoff and erosion assessment model (DREAM), is described, and a validation study conducted in the semi-forested watershed of Pathri Rao, in the Garhwal Himalayas, India, is reported. DREAM takes account of watershed heterogeneity as reflected by land use, soil type, topography and rainfall, measured in the field or estimated through remote sensing, and generates estimates of runoff and sediment yield in spatial and temporal domains. The model is based on simultaneous solution of flow dynamics, based on kinematic wave theory, followed by solution of soil erosion dynamics. As the storm rainfall proceeds, the process of overland flow generation is dependent on the interception storage and infiltration rates. The components of the soil erosion model have been modified to provide better prediction of sediment flow rates and sediment yields. The validation study conducted to test the performance of the model in simulating soil erosion and sediment yield during different storm events monitored in the study watershed showed that the model outputs are satisfactory. Details of a sensitivity analysis, model calibration and the statistical evaluation of the results obtained are also presented and discussed. It is noteworthy that the distributed nature of the model combined with the use of geographical information system (GIS) techniques permits the computation and representation of the spatial distribution of sediment yield for simulated storm events, and a map of the spatial distribution of sediment yield for a simulated storm event is presented to highlight this capability.

Citation Ramsankaran, R., Kothyari, U.C., Ghosh, S.K., Malcherek, A., and Murugesan, K., 2013. Physically-based distributed soil erosion and sediment yield model (DREAM) for simulating individual storm events. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 872–891.     

Suitability of MUSLT for storm sediment yield prediction in Chehelgazi watershed,Iran

Abstract

The Chehelgazi watershed of Gheshlagh Dam in western Iran was selected to check the capability of the MUSLT (Theoretical Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation) model for estimating sediment yield during storms. The efficiency of MUSLT for sediment yield prediction was assessed using observed sediment data recorded for 11 storm events between October 2006 and April 2007. The results showed that MUSLT overestimated sediment yield with a high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.636 and p < 0.05), and it was then calibrated by examining regression models. The developed calibrated model (C-MUSLT) performed well, with a coefficient of determination of 0.739 (p < 0.05) and relative estimation and verification errors of 49.36 and 25.18%, respectively. The results of comparison between observed and estimated values, obtained by applying the calibrated model, confirmed that the difference was significant with a t value of 1.453 (p?=?0.05).

Citation Sadeghi, S.H.R., Gholami, L., and Khaledi Darvishan, A.V., 2013. Suitability of MUSLT for storm sediment yield prediction in Chehelgazi watershed, Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 892–897.     

Impacts of projected climate change on sediment yield and dredging costs

Changes in climate may significantly affect how sediment moves through watersheds into harbours and channels that are dredged for navigation or flood control. Here, we applied a hydrologic model driven by a large suite of climate change scenarios to simulate both historical and future sediment yield and transport in two large, adjacent watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Using historical dredging expenditure data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, we then developed a pair of statistical models that link sediment discharge from each river to dredging costs at the watershed outlet. Although both watersheds show similar slight decreases in streamflow and sediment yield in the near‐term, by Mid‐Century, they diverge substantially. Dredging costs are projected to change in opposite directions for the two watersheds; we estimate that future dredging costs will decline in the St. Joseph River by 8–16% by Mid‐Century but increase by 1–6% in the Maumee River. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on sediment yield and dredging may vary significantly by watershed even within a region and that agricultural practices will play a large role in determining future streamflow and sediment loads. We also show that there are large variations in responses across climate projections that cause significant uncertainty in sediment and dredging projections.     

Lower bound limit analysis of unsupported vertical circular excavations in rocks using Hoek-Brown failure criterion

The stability of vertical unsupported circular excavations in rock media, obeying generalized Hoek-Brown yield criterion, has been investigated by using the lower bound finite elements limit analysis. An axisymmetric analysis, composed of a planar domain with a mesh of three-noded triangular elements, has been carried out. The optimization problem is dealt with by using the semidefinite programming technique avoiding the need of either smoothing the yield surface or making any assumption associated with the circumferential stress (σ_θ). A detailed parametric study has been executed, and the effects of different input material parameters, namely, geological strength index (GSI), yield parameter (m_i), and the disturbance factor (D) on the results have been studied. For different height to radius ratios of the excavation, the computed results are presented in the form of nondimensional stability numbers. Failure mechanisms have also been investigated for a few typical cases. The results from the analysis have been compared with that evaluated separately with the application of the software OptumG2.