年最大值抽样估算的暴雨频率设计值的低估问题探讨

由年最大值抽样（AMS）和年超大值抽样（AES）的基本理论及重现期（RP）的定义可知,AMS并不符合以“事件”为基础的重现期的定义.以美国西南半干旱区1438个雨量站和太湖流域96个雨量站的降雨资料为例,通过经验频率与超过概率的比较,发现AMS估算的暴雨频率设计值偏小,尤其是对常遇频率降雨设计值的影响更加显著.美国的降雨量资料站点多、系列长,实际资料验证与理论分析一致.通过对太湖流域AMS资料的分布形态进行分析的结果表明：太湖流域的站点不多,资料长度不够,且大部分站点在雨量大值区数据稀少,使得频率直方图不连续,是造成我国太湖流域的资料验证效果不理想的可能原因.     

变分同化框架通过背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束的研究进展

通过背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束是变分同化框架设计的重要环节。它不仅帮助实现变量间的协同分析,提高观测使用效率,还能改善变分极小化问题的性状。本文在系统梳理通过背景误差协方差引入动力平衡约束的方式、流程的基础上,对求解目前全球和有限区域变分同化系统普遍采用的准地转平衡和静力平衡约束的共性问题和存在的不足作了归纳总结。分析了求解准地转平衡约束的三类方案:动力平衡方程方案、统计方案和动力-统计相结合方案的优缺点。对照比较了不同垂直离散方案下求解静力平衡约束时遇到的欠定问题的表现以及解决途径。最后,展望了基于背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束在赤道等特殊地区、高分辨率同化系统、以及集合-变分混合同化系统发展中面临的挑战和机遇。     

时变参数灰色模型背景值重构及实现

针对时变参数灰色模型PGM(1,1)的背景值重构收敛速度及稳定性问题,该文运用积分的方法综合序列在Δt内不同变化趋势,导出背景值模型的准确表达式。实现了反映序列对新老信息偏爱程度的最优权值介于(0,1)内,且非不能越过某一阈值;给出了背景值重构模型最优解准确求取的具体算法步骤。基于MATLAB语言的实验结果表明:改进模型预测精度高,易于实现;所研究的带权灰色模型GM(1,n)背景值模型的重构及计算方法验证了PGM(1,1)模型重构及计算实现方法的有效性和实用性。     

基于光谱特征的月球岩性分类方法研究——以Apollo 16登月区域为例

利用NASA行星数据系统提供Apollo计划登月点采样线路影像数据,通过与嫦娥二号CCD数据、印度M~3数据空间校正获得采样路线坐标。开展嫦娥二号CCD数据与印度M~3数据MAP(后验概率)融合并选择Apollo 15、Apollo 16-62231的LSCC测得的标准岩石双向反射率光谱与M~3、嫦娥二号进行交叉定标。本文采用月球岩石光谱谱型全特征分析方法,选取涵盖Apollo计划登月获取的36个基站主要岩性87种、285件岩石样品,利用校正后的M~3数据分析月球典型岩石各阶吸收反射特征,建立月球典型岩石标准遥感影像光谱库,此后应用Apollo 623个岩石样品进行对比得到很好结果,同时完成Apollo 16登月点周围领域岩性分布图,并讨论了研究区的岩石成因,Apollo 16区域形成于高地大撞击,在早期的研究中已经被用于划分月球年代,本文方法对于月球岩石类别研究与理解月球的岩浆演化具有重要的研究价值。     

Stability and capsizing analysis of nonlinear ship rolling in wind and stochastic beam seas

Considering the actual seaway condition, stability and capsizing of nonlinear ship rolling system in stochastic beam seas is of significant importance for voyage safety. Safe zone are defined in the phase space plan of the unperturbed Hamilton system to qualitatively distinguish ship motions as capsize and noncapsize. Capsize events are defined by solutions passing out of the safe zone. The probability of such an occurrence is studied by virtue of the random Melnikov function and the concept of phase space flux. In this paper, besides conventional wave excitation, the effect of wind load is also taken into account. The introduction of wind load will lead to asymmetry, in other words, it transforms the symmetric heteroclinic orbits into asymmetric homoclinic orbits. For asymmetric dynamical system, the orbital analytic solutions and its power spectrum are not readily available, and the technique of discrete time Fourier transformation (DTFT) is used. In the end, as verification of theoretical critical significant wave height, capsizing probability contour diagram is generated by means of numerical simulation. The contour diagram shows that these analytical methods provide reliable and predictive results about the likelihood of a vessel capsizing in a given seaway condition.     

Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

Study of Influence of Regional Geodynamic Background on Strata Behaviors in China's Tongxin Mine

Strata behaviors are mainly affected by regional geodynamic background. The influence of rock mass stress and energy distribution on strata behaviors in the Tongxin mine is studied in terms of regional tectonic movement, seismic activity and tectonic stress field. The results show that the extrusion lifting movement of Kouquan fault adjacent to the Tongxin mine results in the stress concentration in the rock of the Carboniferous coal bed and accumulation of a large amount of elastic energy and forms structural background of Tongxin mine. Due to various seismic activities in the mine area, the strain energy is known to reach much higher levels, up to 0.5×10⁸ J^1/2. Since the stratigraphic structure is sensitive to the mining operation, the strain energy could cause strong strata behaviors. A special geological structure model of the Tongxin mine is established based on the geodynamic division method. The distribution of regional structure stress field is determined by the rock mass stress analysis system. Based on this model, Tongxin mine is divided into five areas with high stress, eight areas with low stress and eight areas with gradient stress. The strong strata behaviors mostly occur in high stress areas. These results could provide guidance to predict the strength of regional or mine pressure and control strata behavior in different areas.     

地质背景对土壤微量元素的影响——以渝北地区为例

研究地质背景对土壤元素的控制特征,可为区域土壤元素地球化学研究、种植施肥和农业布局提供科学依据。本研究利用网格化定位与化学分析的方法,结合GIS技术和相关评价标准,探讨了地质背景对Cl、Mn、B、Zn、Cu和Mo元素含量及分布的影响。结果表明:渝北地区土壤Mn、Cu、Zn元素含量整体处于适中与丰富水平,Mo、B元素丰缺参半;B、Mo元素含量显著高于重庆主城区,Zn元素含量显著高于全国水平。受地质背景影响,B、Cl、Cu、Mn元素呈现高度空间相关性,结构性空间变异起主导作用;Mo、Zn元素表现中等空间相关性,由结构性因素和随机因素双重控制。地层的组对元素含量分布起主控作用,土壤元素含量分布形状在空间上与地层组相对应。成土母岩决定土壤元素含量,是土壤元素含量水平的重要控制因素之一,其影响因素主要为岩石类型,其次为岩石形成的地质时期。土壤类型显著影响元素含量,总体上,Mn、Cu、Zn、Mo、B在石灰岩土中含量最高;除B、Mo元素外,其他元素在黄壤中含量最低。     

西藏“一江三河”地区地下水环境背景值初步研究

在分析对比国内外研究方法的基础上,选择数理统计方法,通过最广泛的数理统计法的应用原则、数据检验、背景值取值等问题的论述,对西藏"一江三河"地区地下水水质指标TDS,Ca²+,Mg²⁺,Na⁺环境背景值进行研究,并初步探讨了它们的空间分布规律及控制因素.结果表明,地形地貌、区域水动力条件等因素对研究区地下水指标的空间分布起主要控制作用.该结果为评价西藏"一江三河"地区地下水污染状况提供科学的依据.     

河北省张家口崇礼区北部地球化学特征及其找矿指示

地球化学测量成果被广泛而成熟地运用在矿产勘查工作中,为明确张家口崇礼区北部成矿、找矿的地球化学指示信息,对该区水系沉积物测量及异常查证成果进行了综合分析。通过计算元素富集系数和变异系数、开展R型聚类分析、统计化探异常区岩石的地质年代、对比该区化探异常及已知矿床与典型矿床的成矿要素,从而推断了该区找矿主攻元素为Ag、Pb、Zn、Mo、Cd,且Ag、Pb、Zn和Mo、W 2组元素分别具有共伴生关系,指出该区化探异常主要受燕山期岩浆热液控制。综合分析认为,本区找矿模型为蔡家营式次火山-热液型多金属矿床,具有寻找次火山-热液型Ag、Pb、Zn、Mo多金属矿床的潜力。