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81.
砂土液化判别方法可靠性评价 总被引:7,自引:3,他引:7
在进行液化评价简化法与规范液化判别方法对比基础上,利用液化概率的对数回归方程,讨论了规范液化判别方法的可靠性。研究结果表明,我国规范液化判别方法其液化概率变动较大,对于烈度 Ⅶ 度,规范法的液化概率在0.17~0.42间,小于简化法概率0.36~0.43,偏保守。对于烈度 Ⅷ 度和 Ⅸ 度近地表场地,规范法的液化概率高达0.65~0.70,远远高于简化法的液化概率,安全裕度不够。对于含粘粒土质液化评价,规范方法的液化概率总体上都较简化法高,特别是烈度Ⅷ度高粘粒含量其液化概率为0.9。 相似文献
82.
淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架,即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度,研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明,概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值,特别当预报不确定度较大时,概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。 相似文献
83.
内蒙古东部闹牛山铜矿成矿地质背景分析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
通过对闹牛山铜矿区与成矿有关的次火山岩岩石化学分析,以及对矿区火山一次火山岩微量元素、稀土元素的分析,结合相关的铅同位素分析,综合分析了该矿床的成矿地质背景。认为:闹牛山铜矿床构造环境属于大陆边缘裂陷带的局部隆起区,成矿火山岩浆为钙碱性,其来源于地壳深部或上地慢,并有上部地壳物质混染。 相似文献
84.
The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (MS=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (MS=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of MS=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of MS=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015. 相似文献
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87.
The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m3 of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area. 相似文献
88.
Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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锂是银白色的、自然界最轻的金属,广泛应用于纺织、陶瓷、冶金、核能、新能源等领域,有“高能金属”、“21世纪的能源金属”之称。锂矿床按成因类型可分为内生和外生两种类型,内生型可具体分为花岗伟晶岩型、花岗岩型、云英岩型和岩浆热液型,外生型则包括盐湖型及地下卤水型(赵一鸣等,2004)。伟晶岩型锂矿主要开采锂辉石、透锂云母、锂云母、磷铝锂石等,是锂矿资源的重要来源。 相似文献