巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡稳定可靠性研究

以巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡为例，在前人稳定性评价的基础上，建立了基于剩余推力法和Sarma法的边坡稳定可靠性分析模型，分析表明边坡系统可靠性指标(β，Pf)能更准确地表达边坡稳定性、安全性和工程风险水平。     

基于自然水系网信息的元素运移分析

地面上的矿物或污染物元素主要是随水系而运移的。因此，利用自然水系网信息来定量分析元素沿水系的迁移、分散，对于地质找矿和环境保护都具有重要意义。在研究应用主概率权模拟模型产生自然水系网的基础上，提出了元素在水系网中运移的计算方法，结合所模拟出的水系网，具体分析了元素在其中的迁移、扩散情况，给出了正问题和反问题的计算结果。结果表明，正、反问题的求解具有一致性，方法是有效、可行的。     

广梧高速公路(马安-河口段)地震地质稳定性评价

由于工程需要，对广梧高速公路(马安—河口段)的地震地质情况进行了考察，马安—河口路段所处大地构造性质为东南地洼区，穿越了三个次级构造分区：白土断陷、思劳断隆、云浮断隆。路段附近发育3条断裂：肇庆断裂、河口断裂和吴川—四会断裂。前两者为非活动断裂，后者为活动断裂且星北东向从思劳附近穿过，是未来5．0级地震发生地段，烈度可达Ⅵ度。但路段附近地震活动水平较低，仅发生过4以—5．0级地震4次，最大烈度为Ⅴ度。白诸立交、河口立交的地震地质环境稳定，思劳立交基本稳定，沿线不易产生滑坡与崩塌。     

Exploration and Study on Deep Crust Structural Characteristics in the Jiashi-Artux Seismic Region

The data from two deep seismic sounding profiles was processed and studied comprehensively. The results show that crnst-mantle structures in the investigated region obviously display layered characteristics and velocity structures and tectonic features have larger distinction in different geological structure blocks. The boundary interface C between the upper and lower crust and Moho fluctuate greatly. The shallowest depths of C (30.0km) and Moho (45.5km) under Jiashi deepen sharply from Jiashi to the western Kunlun mountain areas, where the depths of C and Moho are 44.0km and 70.0km, respectively. The higher velocity structures in the Tarim massif determine its relatively “stable“ characteristics in crust tectonics. The phenomenon in the Jiashi region, where the distribution of earthquake foci mostly range from 20kin to 40kin in depth, may infer that the local uplift of C and Moho interface, anomalonsly lower velocity bodies and deep large faults control earthquake occurrence and seismogenic processes in the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm.     

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.     

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.     

引起陕西渭北东、西部岩溶地下水特征差异性的区域地质背景对比

陕西渭北地处鄂尔多斯南缘，分布大面积的古生代碳酸盐岩，由于东西部所处地质背景不同，岩溶地区含水介质特征以及对应的地下水赋存、运移、循环特性存在极大的差异性。通过对东、西部岩溶含水岩组的结构组合特征、地质构造特征以及地球化学背景特征的深入对比，分析了对岩溶作用的影响，揭示了造成两地岩溶地下水赋存特性差异性的内在原因。     

用非线性多因子动态组合方法作降水概率预报

将逐时段定点降水预报这个以往一般作为非连续量处理的预报问题转化为对一个连续的降水可能函数的预报问题。降水可能函数为一由实况值确定的函数。因为现在模式变化较快，且许多因子和降水可能函数为非线性关系，文章采用一种新的非线性多因子动态组合方法，通过对降水可能函数的预报，作客观分站降水概率预报。     

按不同气候背景制作单站MOS预报方程

在基层业务体制的框架基本形成以后，县局在参考上级指导预报的同时，初步开展对单站数值预报模式的研究，注意中、小尺度天气的变化规律，以提高订正预报的精度。