古洪水流量的误差计算

古洪水研究已在大型工程和长江三峡，黄河小浪底等的设计洪水中得到动用取得了令人虚心成功，但古洪水流量的推求与实测量的计算往往有大的差别，根据随机误差的传播给出了一般情况下的古洪不流量推误差计算公式，以小流底２３６０ａＢＰ古洪水注同误差的计算为例，对最终计算出的古洪水流量成果给出了一个误差范围。     

人工神经网络与分析测试技术的研究与发展

回顾了人工神经网络研究的发展历程，简要介绍了神经网络模型与算法，对分析测试技术和相关学科中的人工神经网络研究及在流程控制、错误诊断、参数估计、传感器模型、模式识别与分类、环境监测与治理及光谱与化学分析中的应用等作了评述。引用参考文献１１３篇。     

Dynamic nucleation process of shallow earthquake faulting in a fault zone

Two distinct phases are commonly observed at the initial part of seismograms of large shallow earthquakes: low-frequency and low-amplitude waves following the onset of a P wave ( P ₁) are interrupted by the arrival of the second impulsive phase P₂ enriched with high-frequency components. This observation suggests that a large shallow earthquake involves two qualitatively different stages of rupture at its nucleation.
We propose a theoretical model that can naturally explain the above nucleation behaviour. The model is 2-D and the deformation is assumed to be anti-plane. A key clement in our model is the assumption of a zone in which numbers of pre-existing cracks are densely distributed; this cracked zone is a model for the fault zone. Dynamic crack growth nucleated in such a zone is intensely affected by the crack interactions, which exert two conflicting effects: one tends to accelerate the crack growth, and the other tends to decelerate it. The accelerating and decelerating effects are generally ascribable to coplanar and non-coplanar crack interactions, respectively. We rigorously treat the multiple interactions among the cracks, using the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), and assume the critical stress fracture criterion for the analysis of spontaneous crack propagation.
Our analysis shows that a dynamic rupture nucleated in the cracked zone begins to grow slowly due to the relative predominance of non-coplanar interactions. This process radiates the P₁ phase. If the crack continues to grow, coalescence with adjacent coplanar cracks occurs after a short time. Then, coplanar interactions suddenly begin to prevail and crack growth is accelerated; the P₂ phase is emitted in this process. It is interpreted that the two distinct phases appear in the process of the transition from non-coplanar to coplanar interaction predominance.     

Inferring the relative measure of principal stress components

The phase velocity and the attenuation coefficient of compressional seismic waves, propagating in poroelastic, fluid-saturated, laminated sediments, are computed analytically from first principles. The wavefield is found to be strongly affected by the medium heterogeneity. Impedance fluctuations lead to poroelastic scattering; variations of the layer compressibilities cause inter-layer flow (a 1-D macroscopic local flow). These effects result in significant attenuation and dispersion of the seismic wavefield, even in the surface seismic frequency range, 10–100 Hz. The various attenuation mechanisms are found to be approximately additive, dominated by inter-layer flow at very low frequencies. Elastic scattering is important over a broad frequency range from seismic to sonic frequencies. Biot's global flow (the relative displacement of solid frame and fluid) contributes mainly in the range of ultrasonic frequencies. From the seismic frequency range up to ultrasonic frequencies, attenuation due to heterogeneity is strongly enhanced compared to homogeneous Biot models. Simple analytical expressions for the P -wave phase velocity and attenuation coefficient are presented as functions of frequency and of statistical medium parameters (correlation lengths, variances). These results automatically include different asymptotic approximations, such as poroelastic Backus averaging in the quasi-static and the no-flow limits, geometrical optics, and intermediate frequency ranges.     

Neural dynamic modelling on earthquake magnitude series

Earthquake magnitude prediction is of vital importance for human safety. The earthquake is a very complicated and non-linear dynamic process. It cannot be described adequately by any deterministic models. In this paper a neural dynamic modelling for earthquake magnitude prediction is reported. Historical records of earthquake magnitude series are used to construct the optimal non-linear dynamic model, and the consequent outcome of the earthquake behaviour is then predicted by this model. In turn, the latest recorded data set can be fed back to improve the accuracy of the neural dynamic model. The modelling of experiments of three earthquake magnitude series in China and Japan and their extrapolated predictions are included in this paper. The values predicted by extrapolation are in good agreement with the historical data.     

滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法

滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题，特别是滑坡时间预测工作，其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论，分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法，研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征，系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上，讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。     

隧道支护结构荷载作用的随机反演

提出荷载－结构模式进行随机反分析方法，从隧道支护结构变形反算对应的荷载作用，可反推围岩抗力系数和覆土荷载的分布情况，以及作用于支护结构上各部位的外荷载。提出了以实测位移为基础的样条函数插值．以插值位移补充大量的实测值，满足了反分析所需众多的已知位移数。通过一施工实例对该方法的可行性进行了检验。     

隧道开挖模拟计算中的模型识别方法初探

介绍了利用隧道施工的位移量测信息来选择计算模型的原理和方法。应用实例表明，本文所提出的方法有较好的应用前景。     

Paleogeographic maps of the Japanese Islands: Plate tectonic synthesis from 750 Ma to the present

Abstract A series of paleogeographic maps of the Japanese Islands, from their birth at ca 750–700 Ma to the present, is newly compiled from the viewpoint of plate tectonics. This series consists of 20 maps that cover all of the major events in the geotectonic evolution of Japan. These include the birth of Japan at the rifted continental margin of the Yangtze craton ( ca 750-700 Ma), the tectonic inversion of the continental margin from passive to active ( ca 500 Ma), the Paleozoic accretionary growth incorporating fragments from seamounts and oceanic plateaux ( ca 480-250 Ma), the collision between Sino-Korea and Yangtze (250–210 Ma), the Mesozoic to Cenozoic accretionary growth (210 Ma-present) including the formation of the Cretaceous paired metamorphic belts (90 Ma), and the Miocene back-arc opening of the Japan Sea that separated Japan as an island arc (25-15 Ma).     

EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.