Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming / Simulations à long terme de changements d’écoulement fluvial et d’humidité du sol causés par le réchauffement global

Abstract

Abstract By use of a coupled ocean–atmosphere–land model, this study explores the changes of water availability, as measured by river discharge and soil moisture, that could occur by the middle of the 21st century in response to combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols based upon the ?IS92a? scenario. In addition, it presents the simulated change in water availability that might be realized in a few centuries in response to a quadrupling of CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. Averaging the results over extended periods, the radiatively forced changes, which are very similar between the two sets of experiments, were successfully extracted. The analysis indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob’ increase by up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers increase substantially. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller, with both positive and negative signs. For soil moisture, the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many semiarid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. As a percentage, the reduction is particularly large during the dry season. From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter.     

我国土壤中结合态硒的含量和分布规律

本文提出并建立了Jackson法系统分离土壤中不同形态硒的实验程序,研究了我国几种土壤表层(0—20cm)中硒的结合形态及其地理分布规律,并对植物可利用性作了评价。     

Environmental controls on lambing rate in Patagonia (Argentina): A regional approach

Sheep herd sustainability in Patagonia is limited by reproductive efficiency. As the herds graze on natural vegetation year round, efficiency is constrained by biophysical factors. Our aim was to characterize the environmental controls over effective lambing rate in northwest Patagonia. We related remotely sensed data [surface temperatures and Normal Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a surrogate for forage availability] and climatic information to lambing rates. A spatial model explained 63% of the variability in mean lambing rate, based on mean annual NDVI and mean spring surface temperature. The relative inter-annual variability in lambing rates was of similar magnitude to that of annual NDVI. Both lambing rate and NDVI were less variable than climatic factors. Two regional temporal models explained approximately 25% of the variability, based on NDVI values representative of ewes’ nutrition during late gestation and lambing. These models predicted, with 65% and 76% accuracy respectively, the occurrence of better-than-average and worse-than-average yearly lambing rates. These results provided insights into the factors limiting reproduction, and they form the basis for important decision tools for ranch managers. Prediction of lambing rates based on remotely sensed data will reduce the uncertainty and risk in sheep production, increasing the economic sustainability of sheep production.     

Evaluating the impact of an agricultural land‐use change adaptation strategy on household crop production in semi‐arid Ghana

In this study, the Land Use Dynamic Simulator model was applied to investigate the impact of farm credit as an adaptation strategy to cope with effects of climate variability on agricultural land‐use change and crop production in the Vea watershed in Ghana. The authors identified the determinants of crop choices within the landscape (e.g., farm household and biophysical characteristics of farm plot). The crop choice sub‐model was then linked to the crop yield sub‐model to determine the yields of selected crops. In adapting to the impacts of climate variability, the maize credit adoption sub‐model under the maize cultivation credit scenario was integrated into decision‐making. This was simulated for a 20‐year period, and compared with the business‐as‐usual scenario. Under the simulated maize credit scenario, maize adopters increased from about 20 per cent to about 50 per cent and the area allocated for maize cultivation significantly increased by about 266 per cent. Consequently, the average annual aggregated household crop yield increased by 6.3 per cent higher than in the business‐as‐usual scenario. This simulation study shows that access to maize credit can significantly influence agricultural land‐use change and food availability in the study area. However, although access to farm credit may translate into food availability, the sustainability of this strategy is questionable.     

Open for Business but at What Cost? Housing issues in ‘boomtown’ Darwin

The Greater Darwin area has long experienced high housing costs and high rates of homelessness. Into this already stressed housing context have come large-scale, natural resource development projects, which are predicted to bring thousands of new workers to town, and exciting property investor interest. While many view these developments as positive, there is concern about the impacts upon the most vulnerable members of the population. This paper presents the findings of a qualitative research project exploring current housing issues in the Greater Darwin area. Interviews with housing support service providers and real estate agents reveal that the current population and investment growth have exacerbated longstanding housing issues. Increased housing stress in Darwin, and a myopic focus on rapid economic growth, may disenfranchise current residents and undermine service and support industries. We argue that while there may be some economic benefits from a ‘booming’ Darwin, greater planning and partnership between government, community organisations and corporates is required to ensure the benefits are spread across the population. Unfortunately, the Northern Territory government's dilatory approach to both housing issues and the social costs of the resources boom makes it highly unlikely innovative partnerships will occur.     

Riparian plant species richness along lateral and longitudinal gradients of water stress and flood disturbance, San Pedro River, Arizona, USA

Diversity theory predicts that species numbers should be highest at intermediate levels of both disturbance and environmental stress. We examined woody and herbaceous plant species richness and cover in the San Pedro River flood plain, along lateral gradients of water availability (ground-water depth), flood disturbance (inundation frequency), and distance from and elevation above the channel, and along longitudinal gradients of water availability (ground-water depth, surface flow permanence, and rainfall) and flood disturbance (total stream power). Herbaceous species were recorded during four sampling periods, and spatial patterns for this group were time-dependent, reflecting temporal variation in limiting factors. During the summer dry season of a dry year, when overall richness was low, richness and cover of herbaceous species declined laterally from the stream channel with increasing ground-water depth, consistent with the idea that low resource levels can limit species richness. Following the summer monsoon rains and floods, when water was less limiting and annuals were seasonally abundant, lateral patterns shifted such that herbaceous species richness and cover increased with increasing plot location above or from the channel. The relationship of herbaceous species richness with tree canopy cover also varied seasonally, shifting from positive (greater richness under canopy) in dry seasons to negative (lesser richness under canopy) in wet seasons. Longitudinally, herbaceous species richness and cover were limited primarily by stream flow and/or ground-water availability during the summer dry season of a dry year. Following the summer monsoon rains and floods, patterns were weighted by the seasonally abundant annuals, and richness increased among sites primarily with distance upstream (and related rainfall gradients). Richness and cover patterns also varied between years with different flood conditions. During the two sampling seasons in the year following a large flood, herbaceous species richness increased with flood disturbance intensity but declined at the few most intensely disturbed sites, consistent with intermediate disturbance theory.For woody species, richness within plant functional groups varied in opposing ways along the lateral gradients: hydromesic pioneer species decreased and hydromesic and xeric competitors increased with distance from or above the channel, with no overall change in species richness. Among sites, woody species richness patterns were related to water availability, but not to flood disturbance. However, richness of woody hydromesic pioneer species increased with both increasing site moisture and flood disturbance. Woody and herbaceous species richness both increased among sites as a function of increasing flood-plain width, likely due to species–area effects. Overall, results indicate that flood disturbance and water availability both influence species richness of riparian plants in the flood plain of this semi-arid region river, with the relative influence of each factor varying among plant groups and over time.     

石灰性紫色土锌的形态及有效性

石灰性紫色土中的锌形态有8种,各形态锌的含量差异显著.土壤中的碳酸盐和有机质是主要吸锌载体.碳酸盐结合态锌是土壤中锌形态间转化的主要参与者.锌各形态中,松结有机结合态锌和碳酸盐结合态锌是土壤中有效锌DTPA-Zn的主要补给源.     

Calculated mineral equilibria for eclogites in CaO–Na2O–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O: application to the Pouébo Terrane, Pam Peninsula, New Caledonia

The high- P , medium- T  Pouébo terrane of the Pam Peninsula, northern New Caledonia includes barroisite- and glaucophane-bearing eclogite and variably rehydrated equivalents. The metamorphic evolution of the Pouébo terrane is inferred from calculated P–T  and P–T  – X H2O pseudosections for bulk compositions appropriate to these rocks in the model system CaO–Na₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O. The eclogites experienced a clockwise P–T  path that reached P ≈19  kbar and T  ≈600  °C. The eclogitic mineral assemblages are preserved because reaction consequent upon decompression consumed the rocks' fluid. Extensive reaction occurred only in rocks with fluid influx during decompression of the Pouébo terrane.     

Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change

The present study sets out to investigate the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for a large western Himalayan river (the Satluj River basin with an area of 22 275 km² and elevation range of 500 to 7000 m), which receives contributions from rain, snow and glacier melt runoff. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model to provide accurate simulations of observed stream flow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T + 1, T + 2, T + 3 °C) and four rainfall scenarios (P ? 10, P ? 5, P + 5 and P + 10%). The effect of climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total stream flow. Under warmer climate, a typical feature of the study basin was found to be reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season, and, in contrast, an increase in the melt from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from upper part of the basin, resulting in a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period, which contributes about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region, because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Increased light availability enhances tolerance against ocean acidification-related stress in the calcifying macroalga Halimeda opuntia

Although the adverse impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on marine calcifiers have been investigated extensively, the anti-stress capabilities regulated by increased light availability are unclear. Herein, the interactive effects of three light levels (30 μmol photons/(m2·s), 150 μmol photons/(m2·s), and 240 μmol photons/(m2·s) combined with two pCO₂ concentrations (400 ppmv and 1400 ppmv) on the physiological acclimation of the calcifying macroalga Halimeda opuntia were investigated using a pCO₂-light coupling experiment. The OA negatively influenced algal growth, calcification, photosynthesis, and other physiological performances in H. opuntia. The relative growth rate under elevated pCO₂ conditions significantly declined by 13.14%?41.29%, whereas net calcification rates decreased by nearly three-fold under OA conditions. Notably, increased light availability enhanced stress resistance through the accumulation of soluble organic molecules, especially soluble carbohydrate, soluble protein, and free amino acids, and in combination with metabolic enzyme-driven activities, OA stress was alleviated. The carotenoid content under low light conditions increased markedly, and the rapid light curve of the relative electron transport rate was enhanced significantly by increasing light intensities, indicating that this new organization of the photosynthetic machinery in H. opuntia accommodated light variations and elevated pCO₂ conditions. Thus, the enhanced metabolic performance of the calcifying macroalga H. opuntia mitigated OA-related stress.