2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。     

Numerical Simulation of Wind and Temperature Fields over Beijing Area in Summer

1. IntroductionThe basic role of urban-rural boundary layer re-search is to study all kinds of physical process changesin the atmosphere boundary layer over urban and itssurrounding areas. Urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known feature of urban-rural climate. Attempts toincrease the understanding of the causes of the UHIand other urban-rural boundary layer phenomena haveused observational, theoretical and modelling methodssince long before. Seaman (1989) used a hydrostaticmodel, with real …     

Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of-this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.     

The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…     

Refining the pre-industrial atmospheric Pb isotope evolution curve in Europe using an 8000 year old peat core from NW Spain

Pb pollution has existed for several millennia and remains relevant today. By using peat cores as environmental archives it is possible to reconstruct this long history on a regional scale. This is a significant contribution to the findings from ice core records, the only other archive recording purely atmospheric additions. Without information that allows linking and comparison between sites regionally, within Europe and elsewhere, our ability to make coherent global models of the natural Pb cycle, and anthropogenic forcing of this cycle, is limited. In this respect, the characteristics of the Pb pre-pollution aerosol (PPA) are important to define globally. We characterize for the first time a PPA in Southern Europe with [Pb] = 0.78 ± 0.86 μg g^− 1, net Pb accumulation rates of 0.032 ± 0.030 mg m^− 2 y^− 1 and a ²⁰⁶Pb / ²⁰⁷Pb signature of 1.25470 ± 0.02575. This PPA Pb isotope signature is more radiogenic than that found thus far in Western and Northern Europe. Spain is a historically important mining site. Using three-isotope plots and a pool of potential Pb isotope signatures, a detailed source appointment of both natural and anthropogenic Pb sources was made. We found evidence of Saharan aridification and its termination ∼4400 BP and/or agricultural signals and strong local control (from rock and soil) of the Pb PPA. Human impact is first recorded at 3210 BP but does not exceed 50% of deposited Pb until 3005 BP. Mines in SE Spain dominate early Pb pollution history at this site. During the rise of Roman rule, contributions come from mines in N, NW and SW Spain with no strong indication of other European mining activities. In Medieval and Industrial times local contributions to the peat bog are reduced.     

A simulation model of morphological,vegetation and sediment changes in ephemeral streams

A model to simulate channel changes in ephemeral river channels and to test the effects of hydrological changes due to climate change and[sol ]or land use change was developed under the auspices of the EU funded MEDALUS programme (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use). The model, CHANGISM (Channel Change GIS Simulation Model), is designed to simulate the effect of channel flow events and of climate conditions on morphology, sediment and vegetation, through sequences of events and conditions, over periods of up to several decades. The modelling is based on cellular automata but with calculations for water and sediment continuity. Process rules have both deterministic and stochastic elements. An important feature of the model is that it incorporates feedback elements between each event. The main aim of the model is to indicate the likely outcomes of events and combinations of conditions. It is linked to GIS for both input and output. The modelling is based on a channel reach and state is input as GIS layers of morphology (DEM), sediment and vegetation cover and state. Other initial conditions of soil moisture, groundwater level, and overall gradient are input. Parameters for processes are read from tables and can be easily changed for successive runs of the model. The bases for decisions on process specifications are discussed in this paper. Initial tests of the operation and sensitivity of the model were made on idealized reaches. The model was then tested using data from monitored sites in SE Spain. Simulations using clearwater flow worked well but initial simulations using events with sediment loads showed some tendency for excess deposition. Further tests and modifications are taking place. Overall, the model is one of the most sophisticated that simulates the interaction of flows with sediment and vegetation and the outcomes in terms of erosion, deposition, morphology, sediment cover, vegetation cover and plant survival over periods of up to 30 years for the scale of a channel reach. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

再论各向异性介质转换波地震学,第一部分:理论

我们业已研发了计算各向异性、非均质介质中P- SV转换波(C-波)的转换点和旅行时的新理论。据此 可以利用诸如相似性分析、迪克斯模型建模、克契 霍夫求和等常规方法来完成各向异性的处理和各向 异性处理,并使各向异性的处理成为可能。这里将 我们的新发展分作两部分来介绍。第一部分为理 论,第二部分为对速度分析和参数计算的应用。第 一部分理论包括转换点的计算和动校正的分析。     

大功率激电测深法寻找焦家式深部金矿床的试验应用研究

利用大功率的激电测深法可以寻找焦家式深部金 矿。首先,由物理和数学推导建立多层极化体的数 理模型,其数理模型产生的极化场可由多层若干 个极化单元场相叠加而成。由多次去除极化单元 场的原理而导出大功率激电测深资料进行消除浅 部强激电干扰异常的数据处理公式,从而突出了 深部矿床的激电异常。并利用处理后的激电测深 曲线,定量求取了深部金矿蚀变矿化带的顶界面 埋深。     

Multifield coupling model and its applications for pile foundation in permafrost

In the construction of Qinghai-Tibet railway,to avoid diseases caused by frost heave and thaw col-lapse of frozen ground,besides the normal bridges over the rivers,a lot of dry bridge structures have been built to replace subgrade in the regions of high tem-perature and high ice content frozen soil.So,the problems on forming mechanism of bearing capacity of pile foundation in cold regions already become one of hot spot problems in frozen soil engineering.Freezing force and frost heave force ar…