自动建模客观分型方法在非汛期人工增雨中的应用

根据安徽省人工影响天气业务系统需要,利用NCEP 500 hPa高度场和风场格点资料及安徽省81站10年非汛期逐日降水资料,在客观分析天气形势基础上,结合预报员实践经验给出的不同系统影响安徽省时的关键区,计算机自动建模,形成逐日天气型日历,实现环流分型客观化。此方法识别条件实用,模型物理意义明确,自动化程度高,自动生成的逐日天气型日历,为安徽省非汛期人工增雨作业指挥系统提供了很好的天气预报参考依据。     

顾及地理-语义动态的城市热点预测框架

城市热点时空预测是城市管理和智慧城市建设的一项长期而富有挑战性的任务。准确地进行城市热点时空预测可以提高城市规划、调度和安全保障能力并降低资源消耗。现有的区域级深度时空预测方法主要利用基于地理网格的图像、给定的网络结构或额外的数据来获取时空动态。通过从原始数据中挖掘出潜在的自语义信息,并将其与基于地理空间的网格图像融合,也可以提高时空预测的性能,基于此,本文提出了一种新的深度学习方法地理语义集成神经网络(GSEN),将地理预测神经网络和语义预测神经网络相叠加。GSEN模型综合了预测递归神经网络(PredRNN)、图卷积预测递归神经网络(GCPredRNN)和集成层的结构,从不同的角度捕捉时空动态。并且该模型还可以与现实世界中一些潜在的高层动态进行关联,而不需要任何额外的数据。最终在3个不同领域的实际数据集上对本文提出的模型进行了评估,均取得了很好的预测效果,实验结果表明GSEN模型在不同城市热点时空预测任务中的推广性和有效性,利用该模型可以更好地进行城市热点时空预测,解决一系列如犯罪、火灾、网约车预订等等现代城市发展中亟需解决的相关问题。     

遥感及再分析降水产品在缺资料干旱内陆盆地的适用性评估

山区降水较集中,但降水测站多位于山谷或人口密集区,代表性差。遥感和再分析降水产品能提供时空分布连续的数据,不受地形条件限制。柴达木盆地中心属干旱荒漠区,水是制约该区开发的首要条件,其四周属高寒山区,降水相对较多,但降水监测十分薄弱。为获取该区相对精确的降水时空分布信息,本文评估了4套高分辨率降水产品（CMADS、TRMM、GPM和MSWEP）的适用性。首先基于地面站点数据评估它们在不同时空尺度上的精度,并分析它们在柴达木盆地的空间分布和年内分配特征。然后,以盆地东南隅的无测站山区香日德河流域为研究区,利用降水产品驱动SWAT模型来评估它们的分布式水文模拟适用性。结果表明：(1) MSWEP在年、月尺度上与站点降水的吻合程度最高（R≥0.79,PBIAS=0.5%）,其次是GPM和TRMM,CMADS精度最低（R≥0.64,PBIAS=5.8%）;(2)从降水精度与站点高程的关系来看,降水产品在相对低海拔区容易高估站点降水,而在相对高海拔区常低估实际降水;(3)在香日德河流域,MSWEP(NSE=0.64)在基准期（2009—2012年）的径流模拟表现明显好于其它降水产品（NSE=0.3...     

Two-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport with mixed sediment and consolidation: Application to the Gironde Estuary,France

In order to optimize ship navigation in the macrotidal Gironde Estuary, a recent project funded by the port of Bordeaux aims at better understand and forecast hydrodynamic and fine sediment transport within the estuary. In the framework of this project, a two-dimensional hydro-sedimentary model is built. The model includes hydrodynamic forcings, mixed-sediment transport, and consolidation processes. The harmonic analysis of the astronomical tides reveals a strong distortion of the tidal wave inducing the growth of overtide constituents and the non-significant effect of tide-surge interactions in annual-scale prediction. Depending on hydrological conditions, river discharge can considerably alter the model accuracy due to the migration of the turbidity maximum zone modifying the bottom roughness. Comparison with measurements shows the ability of the model to reproduce suspended-sediment concentrations in the central Estuary. Sensitivity of the model to sediment features has also been discussed in regard of suspended-sediment concentrations and fluid mud deposits. The model will be further coupled with ship squat predictions and a morphodynamic model.     

Fractal and Multifractal Modeling of Hydrothermal Mineral Deposit Spectrum： Application to Gold Deposits in Abitibi Area, Ontario, Canada

A number of fractal/multifractal methods are introduced for quantifying the mineral de-lmsit spectrum which include a number-size, grade-tonnage model, power spectrmn model,multi-fractal model and an eigeavalue spectrmn model The first two models characterize mineral deposits spec-tra based on relationships among the measures of mineral deposits.These include the number of deposits,size of deposits,concentration and volume of mineral deposits.The last three methods that deal with the spatial-temporal spectra of mineral deposit studies are all expected to be popularized in near future.A case study of hydrothermal gold deposits from the Abitibi area,a world-class mineral district is used to demonstrate the principle as well as the applications of methods proposed in this paper,It has been shown that fractal and multifractal models are generally applicable to modeling of mineral deposits and occurrences.Clusters of mineral deposits were identified by several methods including the power spectral eral deposits in the Timmins and Kirkland Lake camps.     

火山岩储层建模初探

火山岩储层建模研究是一个世界性难题。近年来 ,国内外在含油气盆地的火山岩中发现了大量的油气藏。为了探索火山岩储层物性的空间分布特征 ,作者选取了松辽盆地徐家围子地区火山岩发育的营城组为研究目的层 ,以火山岩相分析为基础 ,以基于相分析的神经网络技术为手段 ,通过多种参数的选取和计算 ,尝试性地建立了该区火山岩储层地质模型。该模型表明 :层状火山机构比块状火山机构的物性好 ;多相火山机构比单相火山机构物性好 ;裂缝发育的火山机构比裂缝不发育的火山机构物性好。基底涌流相、火山空落相、火山沉积相是有利的储集相带。     

铜官山矿田深部构造的三维计算模拟及其找矿意义

计算模拟已成为研究矿田深部三维构造重要可行手段,对深部找矿具有重要意义。基于铜官山矿田地质背景及所获勘查数据特征,我们采用知识驱动下多级约束和多源数据融合建模方法模拟矿田范围内–2000 m以上主要地质界面。以逆冲推覆导致断展–断弯褶皱理论模式解释大地测深的电阻率数据,推断地质界面位置,在Micromine-GOCAD耦合平台上在多级约束下融合多源的界面位置数据,以离散光滑插值算法和Delaunay三角网剖分法重构主要地质界面,在计算机虚拟空间再现矿田三维构造格架。结果显示:铜官山岩体和天鹅抱蛋岩体三维形态变化复杂,总体上向西倾,向深部岩体规模快速变小。位于铜官山岩体东接触带的铜官山铜矿田深部无找矿潜力,原因是接触带产状变陡,并且是岩体直接与上泥盆统砂岩接触;矿田深部主要构造为走向NE并沿倾向弯曲的逆冲推覆断层;铜官山背斜东翼含矿的中–上石炭统层位向深部倒转后又在–1200 m至–1500 m深度返转成向东南缓倾的正常层位,其底部与逆冲推覆断层重合,是深部找矿的有利靶区。     

P-T Paths Derived from Garnet Growth Zoning in Danba Domal Metamorphic Terrain, Sichuan Province, West China

Danba (丹巴) domal metamorphic terrain belongs to Songpan (松潘)-Ganze (甘孜) orogenic belt, where typical Barrovian and Buchan metamorphic zones are preserved. The former included chlorite, biotite, garnet, staurolite, kyanite and sillimanite zones, while the latter only developed silimanite+muscovite and sillimanite+K-feldspar zones. Integrated study has been carried on metamorphic reactions of garnet production and consumption, P-T paths and P-T-X-M phase relation and thermal tectonic model for Danba metamorphic zones. Petrological textures in thin sections show that garnet production and consumption in kyanite-sillimanite zone is mainly attributed to ChI+Ms+PI+Q=Grt+Bt+H2O and kyanite=sillimanite respectively. Based on mineral compositions, the geothermobarometry gives an average P, T condition of (4.9±0.3)×108 Pa, 543±30℃ for the first growth stage of the garnet and (5.8±0.3)±108 Pa, 534±29 ℃ for the second stage of garnet growth respectively. Anti-counter clockwise P-T paths were drawn using Gibbs method by NCMnKFMASH system for sample G98686 in the kyanite zone. The P-T-X-M modeling for the first mineral assemblages shows that the prediction is similar to the measured values in gossular, almandine and spessartine but mole fraction of pyrope and Fe/(Fe+Mg) deviated far from the contours; while that for the second mineral assemblages exhibits that the prediction is consistent with the measured value of pyrope, grossular content and Fe/(Fe+Mg) of garnet. A thermal tectonic model that there are at least three structure levels across the thrnst-decollement zones is presented according to the P-T paths, metamorphic grades and deformation styles for the staurolite-kyanite zone of the Barroviau type metamorphism, which will provide some constraints for the evolution of the nappe complex.     

汉诺坝玄武岩Re-Os同位素地球化学——Re的挥发性丢失和壳-幔相互作用的证据

本文报道了采自汉诺坝玄武岩区周坝和白龙硐剖面以及白布洛张20井等地29个玄武岩样品的Re、Os含量和~(187)Os/~(188)Os比值。Os含量为11×10~(-12)～314×10~(-12),Re含量为40×10~(-12)～238×10~(-12),Re和Os含量有正相关趋势。碱性玄武岩(AK)的Re、Os含量高于拉斑玄武岩(TH)和过渡玄武岩(TR),玄武岩Os含量变化与分离结晶作用有关,玄武岩的低Re含量与地面喷发的火山岩浆脱气过程中Re的挥发性丢失作用有关。玄武岩的~(187)Os/~(188)Os比值为0.14735～0.61136,AK的~(187)Os/~(188)Os比值比TH和TR低且变化小。玄武岩的~(187)Os/~(188)Os比值与Os含量有负相关性。随着Os含量降低到小于75×10~(-12),~(187)Os/~(188)Os比值迅速升高,反映了地壳混染在TH和TR成因中的贡献。在以往的研究中没有观察到类似的地壳混染作用,说明了Re-Os同位素体系在示踪壳源物质上的优势。一些Os含量较高的TH的~(187)Os/~(188)Os比值表明其地幔源区既非亏损的又非经交代富集的SCLM,可能是混入了地壳俯冲物质的"Marble cake"型地幔。总之,汉诺坝玄武岩的Re-Os同位素地球化学研究支持了以往研究的主要成果,两类玄武岩地球化学差异性和异源成因论;分离结晶和部分熔融过程在玄武岩成因中的重要作用;碱性玄武岩的成因与地幔柱的关系等。同时揭示了一些新的现象:汉诺坝玄武岩形成中存在少量的地壳混染作用;地面喷发的火山熔岩在脱气过程中Re的挥发性丢失;拉斑玄武岩的源区更有可能为"Marble cake"型地幔。     

云南羊拉铜矿三维地质建模及储量计算

以云南羊拉铜矿的断层、地层、岩体、矿体为研究对象,在分析研究建模技术方案的基础上,依据收集到的钻孔柱状图、勘探线剖面图、中段地质图和地形地质图,结合野外踏勘与认识,利用Micromine软件建立了研究区的地形、地层、断层以及矿体的三维实体模型,直观展示了区内地表、断层、地层、岩体以及矿体的空间展布以及相互的空间位置关系。运用克里格法对里农矿段的铜矿体进行品位估值,获得了矿体的储量。