人类活动影响下的干旱区河流地貌演变——以塔里木河为例

全球范围内干旱区河流正日益受到高强度人类活动的扰动,但较少研究报道这种扰动对河流地貌过程的影响。采用历史文献、水文数据和遥感影像相结合的方式,详细分析了人类活动影响下中国最大内陆河塔里木河（简称塔河）的河流地貌变化过程。结果表明:塔河流域人类活动的规模和强度日趋上升,对河流水沙过程和地貌形态等影响显著。近50年来,塔河干流低流量过程发生频率呈显著上升趋势,而中、高流量过程则呈降低趋势,河道径流和输沙量减少显著。塔河干流上游现为游荡河道,冲淤变化剧烈且总体处于淤积抬升状态, 但河道平均河宽呈减小趋势,可能是因为塔河两岸冲积平原的开垦和河岸加固。塔河中游弯曲河道蜿蜒系数在近几十年呈缓慢上升趋势,但明显低于废弃古河道。     

Drought, vegetation change, and human history on Rapa Nui (Isla de Pascua, Easter Island)

Stratigraphic records from lake sediment cores and slope deposits on Rapa Nui document prehistoric human impacts and natural environmental changes. A hiatus in sedimentation in Rano Raraku suggests that this lake basin dried out sometime after 4090-4410 cal yr BP and refilled only decades to centuries before AD 1180-1290. Widespread ecosystem changes caused by forest clearance by Polynesian farmers began shortly after the end of this drought. Terrestrial sections show a chronology of burning and soil erosion similar to the lake cores. Although changing sediment types and shifts in the pollen rain suggest that droughts occurred earlier in the Holocene, as yet there is no evidence for droughts occurring after AD 1180-1290. The timing of the agricultural colonization of Rapa Nui now seems well established at ca. AD 1200 and it was accompanied by rapid deforestation that was probably exacerbated by the island's small size, its droughty climate, and the rarity of primeval fires. Detailed records of a large interval of Rapa Nui's ecological history remain elusive due to the drought hiatus in the Rano Raraku sediment record. We find no evidence for a “rat outbreak impact” on Rapa Nui's vegetation preceding anthropogenic forest clearance.     

人类活动影响剧烈背景下的海河流域水文修订成果研究

海河流域水资源开发利用率高,近几十年来未发生较大洪水,水资源开发利用、水土保持、城镇化建设等人类活动对海河流域产汇流特性持续产生明显影响,为七大流域中人类活动影响较大的流域之一。分析了海河流域下垫面变化趋势及对产汇流影响,研究了水文成果修订方法,提出了水文修订成果。在此基础上,总结了海河流域水文修订成果存在的问题,并提出下一步工作建议。     

气候变化对中国古代财政平衡的影响

以当代历史和经济史著作为资料,建立与历朝财政盈亏状态相关词汇的语义分级标准,重建了中国自秦朝至清末（220 BC~1910 AD）10 a分辨率的财政等级序列,并分析其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,秦朝至清末的财政平衡大体经历了4个相对充裕阶段（220 BC~31 BC,441~760 AD,961~1210 AD,1381~1910 AD）和3个相对匮乏阶段（30 BC~440 AD,761~960 AD,1211~1380 AD）。财政危机在寒冷-干旱的气候背景下爆发的可能性最大。财政平衡与温度和降水变化均成正相关,财政平衡的趋势性变化受长期的温度和降水变化影响较为明显。但受多因素的复杂反馈环节影响,两者在某些时段呈现反相位关系。     

THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT IN THE COURTS AND CONGRESS, 1970-1972

This paper tests the validity of general central place concepts in a two-province, government-organized planning region in western Argentina known as Cuyo. Results of trade area surveys for various hierarchical levels and patterns formed by shopping-trip behavior agree well with expectations based on similar central place research in the United States.     

Dynamic response and sliding distance of composite breakwaters under breaking and non-breaking wave attack

Over the last 15 years improved awareness of wave impact induced failures has focused attention on the need to account for the dynamic response of maritime structures to wave impact load. In this work a non-linear model is introduced that allows evaluating the effective design load and the potential sliding of caisson breakwater subject to both pulsating and impulsive wave loads. The caisson dynamics is modelled using a time-step numerical method to solve numerically the equations of motion for a rigid body founded on multiple non-linear springs having both horizontal and vertical stiffness. The model is first shown to correctly describe the dynamics of caisson breakwaters subject to wave attack, including nonlinear features of wave–structure–soil interaction. Predictions of sliding distances by the new method are then compared with measurements from physical model tests, showing very good agreement with observations. The model succeeds in describing the physics that stands behind the process and is fast, accurate and flexible enough to be suitable for performance design of caisson breakwaters.     

东亚夏季风对山东夏季降水的影响

对2种东亚夏季风指数进行了对比分析,选择1种能较好地表征山东夏季降水的夏季风指数。研究了山东旱涝年以及强弱季风年500hPa高度场、850hPa风场、热带洋区OLR场、西太平洋副热带高压等异常分布特征,并初步探讨了影响山东夏季降水的物理机制。结果表明,海陆热力差指数是1种较适合研究山东夏季降水的东亚夏季风指标。强（弱）指数年,南海．热带西太平洋地区对流活动较常年偏强（弱）,热带东太平洋地区对流活动偏弱（强）,walker环流偏强（弱）,北半球500hPa环流形势呈EAP（负EAP）遥相关型,副热带高压偏北偏强（偏南偏弱）,山东夏季以多雨（少雨）年份居多;春夏季南海．热带西太平洋地区对流活动与山东夏季降水之间存在着遥相关关系,两者遥相关的可能机制是热带强迫所激发的大尺度准定常Rossby波的传播。     

Catch share programs in the Western Pacific—A solution in search of a problem?

The movement toward catch shares by NOAA Fisheries and fisheries managers worldwide responds to dysfunctional fisheries plagued by a host of interrelated problems including radically shortened seasons, a race to fish, supply gluts, lowered product quality, increased bycatch, safety issues, excess capacity, and lack of profitability. However, the NOAA Catch Shares Policy recognizes that catch shares are not appropriate for every fishery, and others have agreed that the success of catch shares programs depends on their fit with ecological, economic, and social characteristics. This article describes the characteristics of the Hawaii-based deep-set longline fleet, identified by NOAA Fisheries as a possible candidate for catch shares because it operates under a bigeye tuna quota instituted by the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission. One of the main concerns in the fishery is the potential for closing during the holiday season, a culturally important time for fish consumption in Hawaii. An evaluation of the fishery suggests that many of the problems leading to development of catch shares programs in other fisheries are not present, but that some warning signs exist which could be addressed by catch share programs or other management alternatives.     

A GIS-based Weights-of-Evidence model for mapping cliff instabilities associated with mine subsidence

The Weights-of-Evidence (W-of-E) technique was applied, within a geographic information system (GIS), to derive a model of rockfall potential associated with mining-induced subsidence. The purpose of the model was to describe the potential for rockfalls from up to 60 m high steep sandstone gorges and slopes associated with proposed underground longwall operations within the immediate vicinity of a previously mined area. Ten known rock falls associated with the previous mining operation were used as training points. Six evidential themes were considered-slope, cliff height, planform curvature, profile curvature, the distance of the cliff areas from the longwall panels, and the distance of the cliff areas from the river. Two models were created, one based on a mine layout in which longwall panels extend beneath the steep areas of a nearby river, and a second in which the mine layout is modified so that mining does not occur directly beneath or within 50 m of the steep slopes. This is to allow for the comparison of rockfall potential based on different mining configurations. The results demonstrate that the W-of-E method is a suitable tool for mine subsidence impact assessment, and suggest that not mining directly under the Nepean river may decrease rockfall potential, on average, by approximately ten times. Numerous limitations with the results, relating to the availability of appropriate evidential theme data and the accuracy of training points, are discussed.     

煤中微量元素及其研究意义

煤中微量元素的研究意义重大和广泛.当前人们最为关注的是资源利用和环境污染两个方面.另外应用元素地球化学理论可以探讨成煤作用,一些微量元素可以用作煤层对比标志,微量元素对煤炭开采、加工、利用等方面都将产生影响.在我国,因煤炭的产量和消耗量巨大,研究煤中微量元素地球化学特征及其环境效应更具现实意义.