气候变化对石羊河流域重点治理规划的影响

 根据IPCC全球气候变化情景,分析了石羊河流域未来可能气候变化趋势及其对流域河川径流量的影响。利用宏观经济水资源模型,研究了不同径流变化情景对石羊河流域治理规划效果的影响。结果表明：若石羊河流域未来径流量减少15%,对流域现状发展模式和治理模式经济影响将分别为29.8%和7.2%。石羊河综合治理可提高流域应对气候变化风险的能力,减小气候变化对流域社会经济的影响。     

A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation

Paired catchment studies have been widely used as a means of determining the magnitude of water yield changes resulting from changes in vegetation. This review focuses on the use of paired catchment studies for determining the changes in water yield at various time scales resulting from permanent changes in vegetation. The review considers long term annual changes, adjustment time scales, the seasonal pattern of flows and changes in both annual and seasonal flow duration curves. The paired catchment studies reported in the literature have been divided into four broad categories: afforestation experiments, deforestation experiments, regrowth experiments and forest conversion experiments. Comparisons between paired catchment results and a mean annual water balance model are presented and show good agreement between the two methodologies. The results highlight the potential underestimation of water yield changes if regrowth experiments are used to predict the likely impact of permanent alterations to a catchment's vegetation. An analysis of annual water yield changes from afforestation, deforestation and regrowth experiments demonstrates that the time taken to reach a new equilibrium under permanent land use change varies considerably. Deforestation experiments reach a new equilibrium more quickly than afforestation experiments. The review of papers reporting seasonal changes in water yield highlights the proportionally larger impact on low flows. Flow duration curve comparison provides a potential means of gaining a greater understanding of the impact of vegetation on the distribution of daily flows.     

全球贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响

全球贸易自由化是当前和未来世界经济发展不可避免的趋势,2001年开始的多哈回合贸易自由化多边谈判和最近刚刚取消的“多种纤维协定”（MFA）将在全球贸易自由化进程中发挥重要的作用。本研究的目的是通过一些案例分析,揭示贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响。采用全球贸易模型,我们分析了MFA和在多哈回合初期欧盟、美国和凯恩斯集团分别提出的贸易自由化提案。研究结果表明,虽然取消MFA对一些国家纺织部门带来冲击,但它极大地促进了大多数国家经济的发展,改善了全球福利;多哈谈判过程中提出的各种贸易自由化提案都在不同程度上促进世界经济的发展,但其影响大小依次为凯恩斯提案、美国提案和欧盟提案;贸易自由化对经济的影响在不同部门和不同国家间存在显著差别;更大程度的贸易自由化不但符合全球共同利益,也符合中国国家利益;中国在推动全球贸易自由化过程中应发挥更积极和更大的作用。     

中国全球气候变化影响研究方法的进展

着重介绍了中国全球气候变化影响研究中有关方法的最新进展,其中包括实验室、农田和野外观测实验;冰芯、树木年轮和历史文献方法;数值模式研究,特别是静态模式和动态模式研究。最后,指出了存在的问题,以及研究展望。     

过去2000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述

It is one of the important focuses of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on regional social and economic development over the past two millenniums. The past decades in China have witnessed great progresses in the study of past climatic influence on human society. In this paper, reviews have been made on the latest proceedings related with researches about the past 2000-year climatic impacts on Chinese history in terms of the following three aspects: economic fluctuations, social stability, and the rise and fall of dynasties in China. It is concluded that climate change and socio-economic fluctuation in historical China really temporarily demonstrated a good coincidence, which indicates a potential driving-response mechanism was likely embedded in the complicated relationship between climate change and human society. A warm climate provided relatively stable conditions of agricultural production and thus generally played a positive role in the healthy development of the economy and society. On the contrary, socio-economic adverseness triggered by a colder climate was preconditioned with social problems such as the intensification of the contradiction between people and land, as well as the gradual accumulation of social rigidity. These social problems accompanying with social development contributed higher vulnerability of society in the face of changing climate, which to some extent might amplify the effects of climatic deterioration. The authors emphasize that the future studies of the relationship between past climate change and human history in China should attach more attention to the following key problems: making deeper exploitation of the potential of Chinese historical documents, exploring the mechanism of climate-society interaction, and studying the differences of climatic effects on socio-economic development at the regional scale. This study from a historical perspective might enhance the understanding of human-environment relationship under a situation of global warming, and also provide the scientific basis for the sustainable social development in China.     

水权交易对生态环境影响研究进展

在经济社会发展受到区域水资源总量限制的情况下,水权交易作为解决当今世界严峻水资源危机的重要手段之一,已在国内外进行了广泛的实践。水权交易改变了水资源的时空配置,对水生态和水环境产生有利或不利的影响,然而关于水权交易对生态环境影响的研究尚未有系统的梳理。总结了水权交易对水资源系统影响研究的主要发展历程,着重论述了水权交易对水资源系统影响的4个重点研究方面:可交易生态环境水权的研究、水权交易对水量、水生态、水环境影响的研究。未来应当加强水权交易对生态环境影响的定量研究,进一步提升水权交易对水质、地下水、退水、陆生生态环境影响的研究,明确不同交易类型的不同影响,还应考虑不确定性因素的影响。     

澜沧江—湄公河水电梯级开发的生态影响

针对次澜沦江－湄公河区域快速增长的能源需求,以及国际社会对该流域水电开发的经济、生态和社会问题的关注,集中分析了流域干流水电梯级开发对生态环境的综合影响,提出了能满足各流域国对能源、防洪、灌溉、水生生态保护和减轻海水倒灌等多方面需求的对策措施。     

The social impacts of tourism — A case study in Dali,Yunnan province,China

Ancient town Dali is located in northwest Yunnan Province. With its ancient history and natural scenery, it is preserved as one of the first 24 historical and cultural towns in China. Dali has become one of the most popular attractions for foreign tourists since it had its first foreign visitors in 1983. As a result, English came into the life of the local people. This paper presents and explains the results of questionnaires and interviews about Dali people’s attitude toward learning English. Three types of questionnaires were designed to local businessmen, local residents and foreign tourists. Interviews were also given whenever possible. In this study, businessmen in Dali were divided into two distinct groups. One group had their business in “Foreigners’ Street”, which was in front of Hongshancha Hotel where many foreign tourists stayed. Another group had business in Fuxin Street, which was vertically across “Foreigners’ Street”. The 41 shops and restaurants in “Foreigners’ Street” served mainly foreign visitors, and most of them had English names and advertisements. The 353 shops and restaurants in Fuxin Street mainly catered for domestic visitors but also served more and more overseas ones. Subjects from local residents were mostly young people because aging ones were apparently not much affected by English. The results of the study showed that the oral English levels became lower from “Foreigners’ Street” to Fuxin Street to local residents, due to declining frequency of contact with foreign people. There were also distinct differences in general English level, the understanding of the importance of English, the purposes of communicating with foreign tourists, the willingness and purposes of going on learning English between businessmen in “Foreigners’ Street” and Fuxin Street: people in “Foreigners’ Street” had more positive feedback than those in Fuxin Street because their constant contact with foreigners required them to speak better English which enabled them to exchange with foreigners in many aspects, which in turn help them to know more about other cultures. On the other hand, Fuxin Street businessmen would catch up with more and more prospective contact with overseas people. Though local residents had nothing to do with foreign tourists, they met them in the street every day and might have to talk with them in unexpected ways. They lived in a place where they saw English advertisement every day. Accordingly, study results showed that they were very much motivated to learn English. They showed even stronger desire to learn more English than businessmen in “Foreigners’ Street”, though many of them were too young to tell why English was so important for them. This is an indication that English has become part of the necessary education for young people in Dali. With the development of tourism, Dali is gradually becoming a place where Chinese culture and western culture meet and coexist. This project was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Secular resonances in the asteroid belt: Theoretical perturbation approach and the problem of their location

In this paper a theoretical perturbation approach to the problem of the dynamics in secular resonance is exposed. This approach avoids any expansion of the main term of the Hamiltonian (linear term in the masses) with respect to the eccentricity or the inclination of the asteroid, in order to achieve results valid for any value of these variables. Moreover suitable action-angle variables are introduced to take properly into account the dynamics related to the motion of the argument of perihelion of the asteroid, which is relevant at high inclination. A class of secular resonances wider than that usually considered is found. An explicit computation of the location of the main secular resonances, estimating also the contribution of the quadratic term in the masses by means of classical series expansion, is reported in the last sections. The accuracy of computations obtained by series expansion is discussed in the paper.