海底管道出露悬空环境风险的定量评价研究

海底管道是海洋油气输送的主要方式,其运行状况直接关系到海上油气田的安全和海洋生态环境的质量。本文先以海底管道出露悬空作为故障树的顶事件,分析出海洋环境中各项基本事件,构建针对海洋环境的海底管道故障树模型;再以灰色模糊识别为理论基础,量化对海底管道安全有影响的海洋环境因素,并以层次分析法对每个风险因素进行分级赋权,确定评价指标范围和权重,进而构建海洋环境条件的海底管道风险评价体系。利用该体系对平湖油气田海底管道4个区段进行环境风险评价,避免了将整段管道一同评价导致的信息均等化,评价结果不能真实反映风险等级高的区段的情况;评价结果与管道2014~2016年现场检测数据对比,两者均显示P2分区中海底管道的风险等级较高,说明了该模型具有一定的合理性和实用性。     

知识不确定条件下的海外保障基地自然风险情景模拟评估

针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估。针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性。     

海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价特点浅析

相比陆上油气开发工程和其他海洋工程而言,海洋油气开发工程有其自身的特点,海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价应关注的内容与其他工程有所不同。文章通过分析海洋油气开发工程的特点以及对环境影响的特点,提出海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价要点,即包括施工期悬浮泥沙及钻井液钻屑排放对海洋生态环境的影响、运营期含油生产水排放对海洋生态环境的影响、工程建设对海洋环境敏感目标的影响、溢油事故环境风险分析、污染防治及生态保护措施,并针对目前海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价存在的问题提出改进建议。     

Assessment of Urban Air Pollution and Spatial Spillover Effects in China: Cases of 113 Key Environmental Protection Cities

With rapid urbanization and energy consumption, environmental pollution and degradation have become increasingly serious problems in China. At the beginning of 2013, China implemented new ambient air quality standards (GB 3095-2012) in which the concentration of six pollutants including PM_2.5, ozone, carbon monoxide, PM₁₀, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide were monitored. This study gathered annual air pollutant concentration data for the six pollutants in 113 key environmental protection cites throughout China in 2014 and 2015 to explain spatial patterns of urban air pollution. Based on the Kernel density estimation method, spatial hotspots of air pollution were illustrated through which spatial cluster of each pollutants could be plotted. By employing an entropy evaluation system, urban air quality was assessed in terms of the six atmospheric pollutants. We conclude that, in general, CO and SO₂ were two important pollutants in most Chinese cities, but this varied greatly among cities. The assessment results indicate that cities with the worst air quality were mainly located in northern and central provinces, dominantly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. Regression modeling showed that a combination of meteorological factors and human-related determinants, to say specifically, industrialization and urbanization factors, greatly influenced urban air quality variation in China. Results from spatial lag regression modeling confirmed that air pollution existed obvious spatial spillover effects among key cities. The spatial interdependence effects of urban air quality means that Chinese municipal governments should strengthen regional cooperation and deepen bilateral collaboration in terms of air regulation and pollution prevention.     

基于灰色关联分析法的松辽盆地CO_2地质储存适宜性评价

松辽盆地是中国主要的能源基地,随着中国振兴东北老工业基地政策的实施,如何应对工业和经济发展带来的CO_2排放量的增加,将成为亟需解决的问题。在盆地内进行CO_2地质储存将成为盆地内解决该问题的主要技术选择之一。以松辽盆地为研究对象,在深入分析松辽盆地CO_2地质储存条件的基础上,从储存规模、储存安全性和社会环境风险及经济适宜性4个方面综合考虑,构建了由16个指标组成的松辽盆地CO_2地质储存适宜性评价指标体系,利用灰色关联分析法对松辽盆地33个二级构造单元进行了盆地级适宜性评价工作,评价结果为进一步场地级目标靶区的筛选提供了科技支撑。     

四川盆地理论CO_2地质利用与封存潜力评估

结合CO_2地质利用与封存技术机理,在国际权威潜力评估公式的基础上,系统地提出了适合中国地质背景的次盆地尺度CO_2封存潜力评估方法及关键参数取值。同时,以四川盆地为例,依次开展了枯竭油田地质封存与CO_2强化石油开采、枯竭气田与CO_2强化采气、不可采煤层地质封存与CO_2驱替煤层气,以及咸水层地质封存技术的CO_2地质封存潜力。结果表明,四川盆地利用深部咸水层与枯竭天然气田CO_2地质封存潜力最大,期望值分别达154.20×10~8t和53.73×10~8t。其中,枯竭天然气田因成藏条件好、勘探程度高、基础建设完善,为四川盆地及其周边利用枯竭气田CO_2地质封存技术实现低碳减排提供了早期示范机会。CO_2地质利用与封存潜力评估方法,对进一步开展全国次盆地尺度理论封存潜力评估与工程规划具有重要意义。     

Ecology of water mite assemblages in Panama – First data on water mites (Acari,Hydrachnidia) as bioindicators in the assessment of biological integrity of neotropical streams

The ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems is regularly examined through assessment of their macroinvertebrate assemblages. The various methods used in such biomonitoring all have one characteristic in common – the neglect of water mites. Even though this group perfectly fulfills all necessary requisites for successful bioindicators, these invertebrates are either completely ignored or lumped together as “Acari”.This study, for the first time, uses water mites (Hydrachnidia) as bioindicators in the Neotropics to compare the anthropogenic stress in 15 streams at three different levels of contamination (pristine, rural, urban). In total, 4371 water mite specimens, belonging to 31 genera and 14 families, were collected.Diversity, abundance, and richness of water mite assemblages were significantly reduced with increasing levels of contamination. These differences were clearest in the dry season. Atractidella turned out to be, by far, the most tolerant water mite genus, having the greatest abundance at the most contaminated sites. In contrast, Pseudotorrenticola was found only in pristine waters, while Hydrodroma, Limnesia, Koenikea, Torrenticola, Monatractides and the family Aturidae showed clear preferences for pristine waters.Our data show, that water mites, identified to genus level, are well suited for water quality assessment in neotropical lowland streams, clearly distinguishing different levels of contamination/anthropogenic stress.     

Improved performance‐based seismic assessment of buildings by utilizing Bayesian statistics

This paper addresses two important issues of concern to practicing engineers and researchers alike in application of performance‐based seismic assessment (PBSA) methodology on buildings: (i) the number of ground motion records required to exercise PBSA—current practice (FEMA P‐58‐1) requires eleven or more pairs of motions for this purpose, and (ii) the time and effort associated with performing the number of nonlinear response history analyses required to exercise PBSA. We present a method for exercising of PBSA that employs classical linear modal analysis to develop a first estimate (i.e., a priori) of probability distribution of loss, followed by utilizing Bayesian statistics to update this estimate using estimates of loss obtained by utilizing a small number of nonlinear response history analyses of a detailed model of the building (i.e., posterior). The proposed technique is used to assess the distribution of monetary loss of two case studies, a 4‐story reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame building and a 20‐story steel moment‐resisting frame building, both located in Los Angeles, for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The efficiency of the proposed PBSA method is demonstrated by showing the similarity between the distribution of monetary loss at each story of case study buildings obtained from the traditional/sophisticated PBSA methodology and the proposed PBSA method in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2013年四川芦山7.0级地震烈度遥感评估

2013年4月20日四川芦山MS7.0级地震发生后,在灾区应急获取了多种高分辨率航空和无人机遥感影像,并快速解译提取了灾区建筑物震害信息.采用地震烈度遥感定量评估方法,利用2008年汶川8.0级地震等震后震害遥感解译和现场调查研究确定的经验震害遥感定量评估模型,获得了芦山地震灾区126个主要居民点的地震烈度遥感评估结果,并据此圈画了地震烈度分布遥感评估图.结果显示,本次地震Ⅸ度区面积约150km2,Ⅷ度区面积约900km2.该结果在第一时间(4月21日晚)提供给了中国地震局地震现场应急指挥部.对比分析显示,地震烈度遥感快速评估结果与中国地震局4月25日公布的地震烈度图,以及与笔者在现场实地进行的建筑物震害详细调查结果基础上评定的地震烈度具有较高的一致性.表明强烈地震发生后,借助于快速获取的灾区高分辨率遥感影像,可以快速估计地震烈度分布,对地震灾区灾情估计和抗震救灾工作具有十分重要的参考意义.     

Intensity measures for probabilistic assessment of non‐structural components acceleration demand

A fundamental issue in the framework of seismic probabilistic risk analysis is the choice of ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Based on the floor response spectrum method, the present contribution focuses on the ability of IMs to predict non‐structural components (NSCs) horizontal acceleration demand. A large panel of IMs is examined and a new IM, namely equipment relative average spectral acceleration (E‐ASA_R), is proposed for the purpose of NSCs acceleration demand prediction. The IMs efficiency and sufficiency comparisons are based on (i) the use of a large dataset of recorded earthquake ground motions; (ii) numerical analyses performed on three‐dimensional numerical models, representing actual structural wall and frame buildings; and (iii) systematic statistical analysis of the results. From the comparative study, the herein introduced E‐ASA_R shows high efficiency with respect to the estimation of maximum floor response spectra ordinates. Such efficiency is particularly remarkable in the case of structural wall buildings. Besides, the sufficiency and the simple formulation allowing the use of existing ground motion prediction models make the E‐ASA_R a promising IMs for seismic probabilistic risk assessment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.