基于“推拉阻”模型的国内亲子旅游决策研究

亲子旅游是国内近年来迅速升温的旅游形式,但国内对该领域的研究非常匮乏。基于"推拉"动机理论,构建"推拉阻"模型应用于亲子旅游决策研究。采用SPSS 21.0对319份有效问卷进行统计,亲子旅游决策的影响因素按照重要性依次是推力、拉力和阻力。通过因子分析得到2项推力动机("孩子主导型"和"家长主导型")、4项拉力动机("设施完善""环境优良""特色服务"和"主题鲜明")、2项阻力因子("小孩因子"和"时间与费用因子")。其中,"增加亲子感情""旅游行程安排轻松愉快"和"家长没有足够的闲暇时间"分别是最重要的推力、拉力和阻力变量。单因素方差分析显示,小孩数量与阻力的"小孩因子"呈显著正相关,小孩年龄与拉力动机的"环境优良"存在显著的正相关,家长学历对推力动机的"家长主导型"和拉力动机的"环境优良"均产生显著影响。     

秦岭造山带中热水沉积成矿盆地的研究思路与方法初探——兼论秦岭超大型金属矿集区的研究与勘查

以秦岭造山带中热水沉积成矿盆地为例, 讨论了热水沉积成矿盆地的研究思路与方法（１）, 在这些盆地中已发现了一批大型－超大型矿床, 也是秦岭超大型矿集区的研究原理、研究及研究内容等基本准则。提出盆地充填史、盆地内同生构造作用等研究沉积盆地形成与发展。认为秦岭热水沉积成矿盆地具有分级特征, 热水沉积岩相是主要的物质组成。总结了秦岭中（火山）热水沉积成矿盆地、深水缺氧环境中热水沉积成矿盆地、叠合盆地、复合盆地、拉分盆地、裂陷盆地等六种构造－沉积岩相时间－空间组合模式, 它们是超大型金属矿床产出部位。     

方钢管混凝土柱的三维非线性分析

本文建立了一个三维非线性有限元计算模型,旨在用来准确,有效地分析钢－混凝土组合结构,其中混凝土材料模型在于亚弹性亚弹性正交异性理论,采用Ｓａｒｇｉｎ的非线性应力－应变方程表达以及拉伸,压缩破坏面,钢单元采用等向强化的Ｖｏｎ Ｍｉｓｅｓ弹塑性模型,试验和计算比较表明该计算模型是一个比较简单但准确,有效的模型。     

1992-2014年河北省流动重力资料整理

系统整理河北省1992-2014年流动重力资料,利用LGADJ数据处理软件,对每期重力数据进行单期平差、多期整体平差计算,改正历史遗留问题,利用差分结果绘制145幅流动重力等值线差分图,通过具体异常点位及重力变化分析,得出：①地震前重力场变化强度与震级大小存在相关性;②流动重力观测资料地震前具有较为明显的前兆异常反应;③地震均发生在重力变化的“0”等值线附近地区。     

A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO THE NEW METHOD FOR RIVER PROFILE ANALYSIS: Integral Approach

The topography and geomorphology of active orogens result from the interaction of tectonics and climate. In most orogens, a fluvial channel is most sensitive to the coupling between tectonics, lithology, and climate. Meanwhile, the related signals have been recorded by both the drainage geometry and channel longitudinal profile. Thus, how to extract tectonic information from fluvial channels has been a focused issue in geologic and geomorphologic studies. The well known stream-power river incision model bridges the gap between tectonic uplift, river incision and channel profile change, making it possible to retrieve rock uplift pattern from river profiles. In this model, the river incision rate depends on the rock erodibility, contributing drainage area and river gradient. The steady-state form of the river incision model predicts a power-law scaling between the drainage area and channel gradient. Via a linear regression to the log-transformed slope-area data, the slope and intercept are channel concavity and steepness indices, respectively. The concavity relates to lithology, climatic setting and incision process while the channel steepness can be used to map the spatial pattern of rock uplift. For its simple calculation process, the slope-area analysis has been widely used in the study of tectonic geomorphology during past decades. However, to calculate river slope, the coarse channel elevation data must be smoothed, re-sampled, and differentiated without any reasonable smooth window or rigid mathematical fundamentals. One may lose important information and derive stream-power parameters with high uncertainties. In this paper, we introduce the integral approach, a procedure that has been widely used in the latest four years and demonstrated to be a better method for river profile analysis than the traditional slope-area analysis. Via the integration to the steady-state form of the stream-power river incision equation, the river longitudinal profile can be converted into a straight line of which the independent variable is the integral quantity χ with the unit of distance and the dependent variable is the relative channel elevation. We can calculate the linear correlation coefficient between elevation and χ based on a series of concavity values and find the best linear fit to be the reasonable channel concavity index. The slope of the linear fit to the χ value and elevation is simply related to the ratio of the uplift rate to the erodibility. Without calculating channel slope, the integral approach makes up for the drawback of the slope-area analysis. Meanwhile, via the integral approach, a steady-state river profile can be expressed as a continuous function, which can provide theoretical principle for some geomorphic parameters (e.g., slope-length index, hypsometric integral). In addition, we can determine the drainage network migration direction using this method. Therefore, the integral approach can be used as a better method for tectonogeomorphic research.     

Analytical approach for sheet flow transport in purely acceleration-skewed oscillatory flow

An instantaneous analytical approach is developed to predict sheet flow transport in purely acceleration-skewed oscillatory flow. The approach is derived from exponential approximations of velocity and concentration profiles above a mobile seabed, and it particularly considers factors of phase lead; phase lag (i.e. phase residual and phase shift); acceleration modification; and asymmetries in shear stress, roughness height, and boundary layer development. The approach can predict net boundary layer flow above a mobile seabed, and can revert to the classical bedload model. Instantaneous and net sediment transport rates are studied using the approach. The instantaneous sediment transport rate in an onshore flow stage can be approximated by a power function of velocity in which the exponent is confirmed to range between 1 and 5 with a decrease in the phase residual. The net sediment transport rate predicted using the approach is validated using a considerable amount of measured data, and compared with existing instantaneous and half-period type models that consider the phase lag or acceleration modification. For the net sediment transport rate in purely acceleration-skewed oscillatory flow, the phase residual is less important than the acceleration-skewed boundary layer difference between onshore and offshore acceleration stages.     

A response spectrum approach for seismic performance evaluation of actively controlled structures

To evaluate and measure the effectiveness of active control schemes in reducing the response of structures subjected to earthquake excitations, it is common to use recorded or artificially generated earthquakes as input motions. This paper introduces the response spectrum analysis to evaluate linear control systems for seismic inputs defined by code‐prescribed or site‐specific ground response spectra. Using such a method one can evaluate a control system in a single analysis for the ensemble of time histories that are represented by the input response spectra. The response spectrum analysis can also facilitate the implementation of comprehensive parametric studies. A generalized response spectrum method is used to analyse systems with non‐symmetrical matrices that are caused by the general nature of the control actions imposed on the structure. The application of the method is demonstrated on several numerical examples of a building structure where the control force is applied through an active tuned‐mass damper. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian probabilistic damage detection of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column

A Bayesian probabilistic approach for damage detection has been proposed for the continuous monitoring of civil structures (Sohn H, Law KH. Bayesian probabilistic approach for structure damage detection. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 1997; 26 :1259–1281). This paper describes the application of the Bayesian approach to predict the location of plastic hinge deformation using the experimental data obtained from the vibration tests of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column. The column was statically pushed incrementally with lateral displacements until a plastic hinge is fully formed at the bottom portion of the column. Vibration tests were performed at different damage stages. The proposed damage detection method was able to locate the damaged region using a simplified analytical model and the modal parameters estimated from the vibration tests, although (1) only the first bending and first torsional modes were estimated from the experimental test data, (2) the locations where the accelerations were measured did not coincide with the degrees of freedom of the analytical model, and (3) there existed discrepancies between the undamaged test structure and the analytical model. The Bayesian framework was able to systematically update the damage probabilities when new test data became available. Better diagnosis was obtained by employing multiple data sets than just by using each test data set separately. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于“情景-应对”的矿井水灾事故应急决策机制

为解决矿井水灾事故应急快速反应、高效决策的现场需求,针对矿井水灾事故的不确定性、复杂性和紧迫性等特点,运用多案例分析法,解析了11起典型矿井水灾事故,提出了判别“情景”和事故“情景”两个关键概念,定义了集合{突水水源,突水通道,采掘方式,出水量,淹没范围,生存空间}为矿井水灾事故的情景,并运用AHP分析法计算了6个情景要素各自的权重。确立了“情景-应对”应用在矿井水灾应急决策领域的实现途径,详细阐述了构建情景库、案例库、对策库的方法以及“情景-应对”型矿井水灾应急决策方案的生成过程,并提出了以“黄金72小时” “8天8夜”为时间节点的多阶段矿井水灾事故应急决策机制,案例推演应用表明,该应急决策机制不仅规范了事故应急流程,而且实现了精准、快速、高效的目标。