中国2050年碳排放情景比较

从方法论、情景设置、宏观参数、能源消费量、能源消费结构、碳排放量、碳排放强度等几个方面,对国内外有代表性的6个中国碳排放情景研究进行了比较。在维持现有政策框架的基准情景下,尽管中国未来的能源结构持续优化,碳排放强度持续下降,但中国2050年的二氧化碳排放量将显著增长,排放量为119亿～162亿t。通过一定的低碳发展政策,在比较情景下,能源结构的优化和碳排放强度的下降更加明显,2050年碳排放量显著下降,排放量为43亿～95亿t。     

5°拐折断层在黏滑过程中物理场演化与交替活动的实验研究

在实验室利用96通道应变记录采集系统和分布式多通道瞬态信号采集系统,观测了预切5.拐折断层的标本在变形失稳过程中应变场和声发射事件的时空演化.实验在双轴伺服加载系统上进行.在Y方向按位移控制方式加载,位移速率先后取0.5μm/s、1μm/s、0.5μm/s和0.1μm/s.观测得到:1)标本沿断层发生周期性的黏滑失稳,...     

电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法同时测定铜铅锌矿石中铜铅锌钴镍等元素方法确认

文章在修订GB/T 14353—1993《铜矿石、铅矿石和锌矿石化学分析方法》研究工作中,建立了电感耦合等离子体发射光谱同时测定铜铅锌矿石中铜铅锌钴镍等元素的标准分析方法。通过控制试样量和制备试样溶液的体积,可实现主量元素铜、铅、锌与次量元素钴、镍的同时测定。测定范围为铜0.002%~8.5%,铅0.01%~5%,锌0.005%~3%,钴0.001 5%~0.5%,镍0.003%~0.5%。按照相关国家标准对测量方法与结果的准确度进行8个实验室协同参加的准确度试验,统计参数结果表明在限定水平范围内方法偏倚不显著;利用方法重复性限参数,计算可能产生的最大相对偏差。分析方法精密度满足《地质矿产实验室测试质量管理规范》的要求。     

电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定红土镍矿中镍钴铜

红土镍矿样品用无水Na2CO3-Na2B4O7混合熔剂熔融,HCl浸出酸化,电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法直接测定样品中镍、钴、铜的含量。Cu 324.754 nm使用Y 371.030 nm作为内标线,Ni 231.604 nm、Co 228.616 nm使用Y 224.306 nm作为内标线校正基体干扰,方法检出限镍为0.5μg/g、钴为1.0μg/g、铜为1.0μg/g,相对标准偏差(RSD,n=7)为1.2%～2.0%,加标回收率为95.0%～103.6%,能满足红土镍矿的分析要求。     

微波超快速吸收现象

对１９８８年６月２９日云南天文台高时间分辨率射电望远镜观测到的微波超快速吸收现象进行了分析研究。在世界时０７ｈ３８ｍ５０ｓ至０７ｈ３８ｍ５８ｓ超快速吸收现象出现在太阳活动区ＮＯＡＡ／ＵＳＡＦ５０６０上空的４００ＧＨｚ上,而在２８４ＧＨｚ和１４２ＧＨｚ上空出现的是ｓｐｉｋｅ辐射。当时,该活动区呈现出极其活跃的双极磁场位形。在世界时０７ｈ３８ｍ至０８ｈ４７ｍ先后产生了３Ｂ级和２Ｂ级的Ｈα耀斑,并出现了Ｍ６５Ｘ射线爆发。根据电子回旋脉泽谐波吸收峰的特性,我们计算了三个波段的二次、三次谐波的磁场强度,并采用偶极磁场模型进行分析。对于４００ＧＨｚ上出现的超快速吸收现象,可能是产生的三次谐波脉泽辐射,在穿过吸收区时被吸收掉了。     

Measurements of the Ca II infrared triplet lines of young stellar objects

Equivalent widths and line widths of Ca II infrared triplet emission lines were measured in the high-resolution optical spectra of 39 young stellar objects.We found that the equivalent widths of the emission lines decrease with stellar evolution.It has often been claimed that strong chromospheric activity is generated by a dynamo process caused by fast rotation of the photosphere.However,we found no clear correlation between the strength of the Ca II lines and the stellar rotation velocity.Instead,we found that the objects with high mass accretion rates had stronger Ca II emission lines.This correlation supports the turbulent chromosphere model or the magnetic accretion theory for classical T Tauri stars.We also noticed that the equivalent widths of Ca II lines in transitional disk objects are one-tenth of those in classical T Tauri stars,even if the masses of the circumstellar disks are comparable.     

Simulation of the emission lines radiated from cataclysmic variables

Cataclysmic variables are special celestial bodies because they have particular light curves and spectra.The mechanisms for generating emission lines radiated from dwarf novae in their quiescent phases are studied.We assume that the incident radiation field which is emitted by a hot source（white dwarf and boundary layer）irradiates the gaseous layer evaporated from the accretion disk,and the emission lines are radiated from the gas.We model the fluxes of emission lines by using the photoionization code CLOUDY.Using this method,we input some reasonable parameters and get a series of simulated spectra.In order to find a simulated spectrum which is the best fit to an observed spectrum,we use a cross-correlation method to match them.After the calculation,we use the approximation that the parameters of the simulated spectrum can simulate the observed spectrum.Finally,we learn more about the physical conditions of the system.     

沙尘模式地表起沙参数不确定性分析

 起沙的参数化方法对沙尘天气的预报质量起着至关重要的作用。首先分析了目前应用广泛的沙尘模式中的参数土壤塑性压力P和cy对地表水平沙通量与垂直沙尘通量计算结果的影响,然后利用WRF-Chem3.0模式对2007年3月27—28日发生在我国西部地区的一次沙尘过程进行了模拟,分析了由于参数值选取的误差而造成沙尘模拟的不确定。结果表明,土壤塑性压力P对模拟结果有很大影响,P值的改变不仅影响PM10浓度大小的预测,而且还影响其浓度中心位置以及分布范围;cy值仅影响沙尘区域内PM10浓度大小的预测,对浓度中心位置和分布范围大小的预测没有影响。     

20世纪太平洋海温变化中人为因子与自然因子贡献的模拟研究

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对20世纪太平洋海温变化的模拟,讨论了自然因子和人为因子对20世纪太平洋海温变化的相对贡献。观测资料表明,20世纪太平洋平均的SST变化主要分为3个时段:20世纪上半叶的增暖,40—70年代的微弱变冷,70年代之后的迅速增暖。20世纪太平洋SST变化的主导模态是全海盆尺度的振荡上升模态,其次为PDO振荡型,在70年代末PDO存在明显的年代际转型。通过全强迫试验、自然强迫试验、控制试验对上述现象进行归因分析,结果表明,人为因子和内部变率都对第一次增暖有贡献,而人类活动(主要是温室气体的增加)是70年代之后太平洋SST迅速增暖的主要原因。分区域来看,在两个增暖时段中,影响黑潮延伸体区SST变化的主要是自然因子和内部变率,影响其它海域SST变化的则主要是人为因子。全强迫试验可以较好的模拟出前两个模态的空间分布及时间序列。在没有人为因子的影响下,PDO成为太平洋海温变化的主导模态,其年代际转变发生在60年代中期,意味着人为因子是全海盆振荡增暖的主导原因,并且它使得年代际转型滞后了10a。因此,自然因子是导致SST年代际转型中的主导因子,人为因子有"调谐"作用。     

Impact of regional development on carbon emission: Empirical evidence across countries

Global warming is recently an urgent issue worldwide. The increase of carbon emissions induced by human economic activi- ties has become a major driving force behind global climate change. Thus, as a matter of social responsibility, reasonable carbon con- straints should be implemented to ensure environmental security and sustainable development for every country. Based on a summary of studies that examined the relationship between carbon emissions and regional development, this paper shows that human activity-led carbon emission is caused by the combination of several influencing factors, including population size, income level, and technical pro- gress. Thus, a quantitative model derived from IPAT-ImPACT-Kaya series and STIRPAT models was established. Empirical analysis using multivariate nonlinear regression demonstrated that the origins of growing global carbon emission included the increasing influ- encing elasticity of the population size and the declining negative effect of technical progress. Meanwhile, in context of classification of country groups at different income levels, according to the comparison of fluctuating patterns of the influencing elasticity, technical progress was found as the main factor influencing carbon emission levels in high-income countries, and population size might he the controlling factor in middle-income countries. However, for low-income countries, the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors was not significant, whereas population growth was identified as an important potential driving force in future carbon emissions. This study can therefore provide a reference for the formulation of policies on carbon constraints, especially to de- velop more efficient carbon mitigating policies for countries at different income levels.