晋西北地区马铃薯生态需水量对气候变化的响应

基于晋西北地区8个地面气象站1960~2010年的气象资料及马铃薯生育期平均资料,运用P-M公式,计算了马铃薯生态需水量,分析了生态需水量的时间演变特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:晋西北地区马铃薯生态需水量整体上呈显著下降趋势,但不同时段下降幅度差异较大;风速和日照时数的变化对马铃薯生态需水量的影响最为突出。气候变暖对该地区马铃薯生态需水量的影响表明,气温的升高会增加马铃薯的需水量,且不同地区需水量的增幅不尽相同,气候变暖对寒冷地区马铃薯需水量的影响更加显著。     

近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析

重新考虑了1950年前后器测资料的非均一性问题,统一采用最高温度和最低温度计算月平均温度,利用国际上通行的区域平均温度序列计算方法,建立了中国近100年的地表气温序列,并对气温变化趋势进行了再分析.结果表明,自1905年以来中国地表年平均气温明显增暖,升高幅度约为0.79℃,增温速率约为0.08℃/10 a,比同期全球或北半球平均略高.但是,20世纪80年代初以来的增温似乎不比30～40年代明显,而20世纪50～60年代地表气温的变冷却比全球或北半球显著得多.和全球平均温度变化一样,近100年来中国的增温也主要发生在冬季和春季,而夏季却有微弱变凉趋势.新的全国平均气温序列与以往的研究结果比较给出了更高的增温趋势估计值,这主要与采用新的月平均气温统计方法改善了原序列的均一性有关.另一方面,由于早期资料覆盖面积比例低和后期城市化影响等问题,这里给出的增温趋势估计仍然存在着较大的不确定性.     

气候变暖对江南双季稻灌浆期的影响及其观测规范探讨

通过对南方的江西、湖南、湖北3省4个台站双季水稻灌浆期气温及发育进程观测,以及千粒重、灌浆速度的加密观测,发现近16年来江南双季早稻、双季晚稻、一季稻生殖生长期的平均气温均升高2℃左右,早、晚稻抽穗一乳熟期天数缩短了6天左右,早、晚稻抽穗一成熟期天数分别缩短了6天左右和5天左右.气候变暖伴随着水分胁迫,回归分析显示,灌...     

金矿床定年方法进展及中国金矿床成矿时代

本文汇集和讨论了夹皮沟、辽宁、冀东、张家口、小秦岭、胶东、湘西、粤西－海南、滇西、北疆和台湾等我国主要金矿化集中区某些典型矿床的成矿年龄．在此基础上讨论了金矿床蚀变矿物、流体包裹体、石英、水热锆石、裂变径迹和矿石矿物同位素年龄测定新方法及热释发光技术在金矿床定年中的进展。普通铅模式年龄的定年意义是很有限的，但异常铅模式研究可用来示踪金矿化历史。＂成矿物质来源年龄老，矿床定位年龄新＂，即成矿作用具有明显继承性是中国金矿床最突出的特征。     

沉积物记录的亚高山湖泊环境变化——以鄂东南云中湖为例

根据云中湖27 cm长沉积岩芯进行元素、粒度和硅藻多指标分析以及²¹⁰Pb测年,结合流域气候和人类活动等历史资料,反演1958年以来云中湖在气候变化和人类活动影响下的环境变化。冗余分析结果显示云中湖沉积硅藻组合变化与Al、Fe、Pb和温度四个变量显著相关。硅藻属种聚类分析的结果表明云中湖环境变化经历了两个阶段：1958-1993年间喜碱性水体的Achnanthes minutissima和Fragilaria nanana属种大量出现与较高CIA指数响应于气候调控下的流域侵蚀过程;1993年以来气候变暖与旅游发展引起入湖营养盐增加是Cyclotella pseudostelligera和Aulacoseira alpigena等中—富营养硅藻种增殖的主要诱因。重建亚高山湖泊在气候变化以及人类活动影响下湖泊生态系统的演化,为保护亚高山湖泊生态环境和改善流域水质提供参考。     

Contribution to the Global Warming Mitigation of Marshlands Conversion to Croplands in the Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

Based on the estimation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and carbon sequestration of the total conversion of marshlands (TMC), marshlands conversion to paddy fields (MCPFs) and marshlands conversion to uplands (MCULs), this study revealed the contribution to the global warming mitigation (CGWM) of paddy fields versus uplands converted from marshlands in the Sanjiang Plain (excluding the Muling‐Xingkai Plain on south of Wanda Mountain), Heilongjiang Province, northeast China. The results showed that the total area of MCPFs and MCULs was 504.23 × 10³ ha between 1982 and 2005. The CGWM per unit area was 45.53 t CO₂eq/ha for MCPFs and that was 23.95 t CO₂eq/ha for MCULs, with an obvious 47.40% reduction. The MCPFs and MCULs ecosystems acted as the carbon sink all of the year. As far as CGWM per unit area is concerned, MCPFs mitigated the greenhouse effect which was greater than MCULs. And it was effective that the implementation of the uplands transformed into paddy fields in Northeast China with regard to marshlands protection and croplands (including paddy fields and uplands) reclamation.     

全球温升1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国降雨诱发地质灾害危险性和人口暴露度评估研究

气候变化情景下极端降水事件的频次和强度预估呈增加趋势,这会导致全球部分地区极端降雨诱发地质灾害风险的增加。本文基于中国降雨诱发地质灾害易发性模型和不同地貌分区的累积事件降雨量-降雨历时阈值曲线,采用最新的CMIP6全球气候模式多模式集合结果,基于全球温升目标情景的视角,从地质灾害空间易发性和发生频次两方面,探讨温升情景下中国地质灾害危险性的可能变化及其对暴露人口的潜在影响。结果表明,CMIP6多模式集合预估的多年平均降水在温升1.5℃和2.0℃情景下相比基准时期可能增加5.4%～9.5%,导致中等至极高地质灾害易发区范围预估增加0.33%～0.74%,由于预估的极端降水事件增加,地质灾害发生频次预估增加7.0%～11.2%,进一步综合未来人口空间分布,潜在地质灾害暴露人口可能增加6.20亿人次（18.90%）和4.26亿人次（12.97%）。各地貌分区未来情景下地质灾害危险性预估增加且存在显著的空间异质性,温升2.0℃情景下中等至极高易发性范围相比基准时期增加0.71%～1.28%,地质灾害发生频次预估增加1.2%～15.6%,其中,青藏高原区地质灾害危险性增加最明显。综合考虑未来人口...     

Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.     

Review of recent findings on the water masses and circulation in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Recent findings on water masses, biogeochemical tracers, deep currents and basin-scale circulation in the East/Japan Sea, and numerical modeling of its circulation are reviewed. Warming continues up to 2007 despite an episode of bottom water formation in the winter of 2000–2001. Water masses have definitely changed since the 1970s and further changes are expected due to the continuation of warming. Accumulation of current data in deep waters of the East/Japan Sea reveals that the circulation in the East/Japan Sea is primarily cyclonic with sub-basin scale cyclonic and anticyclonic cells in the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin). Our understanding of the circulation of intermediate water masses has been deepened through high-resolution numerical studies, and the implementation of data assimilation has had initial success. However, the East/Japan Sea is unique in terms of the fine vertical structures of physical and biogeochemical properties of cold water mass measured at the highest precision and their rapid change with the global warming, so that full understanding of the structures and their change requires in-depth process studies with continuous monitoring programs.     

全球变暖减缓背景下欧亚秋冬温度变化特征和原因

采用气候序列变化趋势诊断和一元线性回归等分析法,研究和讨论了2000-2012年和1976-1999年两种年代际背景下全球陆地不同区域的年平均地表温度的变化特征。发现欧亚大陆中高纬度地区是对全球变暖减缓贡献最大的区域。且该地区在2000年以来秋季年代际增温,而冬季年代际降温。从同期大气环流的配置来看,在对流层低层,秋季西伯利亚高气压年代际减弱,而冬季西伯利亚高气压年代际增强。在对流层中高层,秋季从西欧至东北亚为"高-低-高"的高度场异常分布,纬向环流加强,经向环流减弱,而冬季极地与贝加尔湖地区的高度场呈偶极型分布,东亚大槽加深,经向环流加强。进一步研究发现,超前一个季节的喀拉海附近的海冰与欧亚中高纬度秋冬两季温度的年代际变率有着密切的联系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少影响秋季(冬季)中高纬度大气环流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少,使得秋季(冬季)从北极至中高纬度大陆的对流层低层水汽含量增加(减少),大气逆辐射增强(减弱)导致秋季(冬季)增温(降温)。