R＆D投入的区位模式与区域经济发展

基于对中国R＆D投入的区位模式的实证检验，从投入一产出绩效的角度认为集中投入的区位模式具有较强的适宜性。利用聚类分析技术，按照R＆D的投入强度和及其对经济的带动效应、科技化效应、产业化效应将中国各省区划分为6类地区，具有代表性的是科技化模式和产业化模式。其中前者适合于技术存置较高的少数地区，而后者具有较强的借鉴意义。     

Lake-Level Fluctuations and Small-Scale Vegetation Patterns During the Late Glacial in The Netherlands

Late glacial changes in the vegetation were studied in and around a former lake on the southeastern side of a coversand ridge near Milheeze (southern Netherlands). Analyses of microfossils and macroremains and AMS ¹⁴C dating were performed on four sediment cores along a transect from sand ridge to the lake centre. Small-scale vegetation patterns and lake-level fluctuations were reconstructed in detail based on the information provided by the transect. For the first time in The Netherlands, cores along a transect within one lake were used to reconstruct the amplitude of late glacial lake-level fluctuations. Near Milheeze, a small and shallow lake was formed during the Bølling. The large increase in the water level during the Bølling and early Allerød, and the transition to more eutrophic conditions at the start of the Allerød, were probably related to the disappearance of permafrost. During the Allerød, open birch and pine woodlands developed in the area. In the lake, organic deposits accumulated, and the lake size and depth fluctuated. At the start of the Younger Dryas, higher lake water levels were recorded and woodlands became more open as a result of both a drop in the temperature and an increase in the effective precipitation. During the late Younger Dryas the lake water level dropped as the climate became drier and temperatures slightly increased. Accumulation of organic deposits in the lake ceased at the end of the Younger Dryas, which was caused by a drop in the water level in combination with the hydroseral succession process within the lake itself. The climatic signal reflected in the late glacial flora and lake-level fluctuations agree well with other published data from The Netherlands.     

The Migif–Hafafit gneissic complex of the Egyptian Eastern Desert: fold interference patterns involving multiply deformed sheath folds

The Wadi Hafafit Complex (WHC) is an arcuate belt of orthogneisses, migmatites and other high-grade metamorphic rocks, which marks the boundary between the Central Eastern and the South Eastern Deserts of Egypt. In the WHC, gneissic meta-gabbro outlines macroscopic fold interference patterns characterized by elliptical to irregular culminations cored by gneissic meta-tonalite to meta-trondhjemite. The five main culminations of the WHC have previously been labeled A (most northerly), B, C, D and E (most southerly). A detailed structural investigation of B, C, D and E reveals that these structures are a result of the interference of four macroscopic fold phases, the first three of which may represent a single deformation event. The first folding involved sheath-like fold nappes, which were transported to the N or NW, assisted by translation on gently dipping mylonite zones. The regional gneissosity and mineral extension lineations formed during this folding event. The fold nappes were deformed by mainly open upright small macroscopic and mesocopic folds with approximately NE-trending hinges. As a probable continuation of the latter folding, the sheaths were buckled into large macroscopic folds and monoclines with the same NE-trends. The fourth macroscopic folding resulted from shortening along the NE–SW direction, producing mainly NW–SE-trending upright gently plunging folds. Gravitative uplift is disputed as a component of the deformation history of the WHC. The peculiarities of the fold interference pattern result from the interesting behaviour of sheath folds during their refolding.     

A quantitative investigation into the temporal and spatial variations in the emergence of adult blackflies (Diptera: Simuliidae) from the Breitenbach, a small upland stream in Germany

As a contribution to the long-term emergence studies carried out as part of the “Breitenbach ecosystem project”, this paper presents the results obtained on emergence patterns and population dynamics of blackflies from 1984 to 1988. The Breitenbach is a small first order stream near Schlitz/Hesse, running into the Fulda river. Adult blackflies were caught in 4 greenhouse emergence traps, each spanning the whole width of the stream for a length of 6 m. A manual and then a partly automated method for collecting trapped insects was applied for three years and one year, respectively. Sixteen blackfly-species of different origin were found in the traps: a) autochthonous species: Prosimulium tomosvaryi, Simulium vernum s.l., S. cryophilum s.l., S. ornatum s.l. (common); S. costatum, S. trifasciatum, S. monticola, S. argyreatum (rare); b) species of doubtful origin: S. lundstromi, S. angustitarse, S. angustipes, S. aureum (very rare); c) allochthonous species: S. lineatum, S. equinum, S. erythrocephalum, S. noelleri. It was shown that the last 4 species had not emerged from the Breitenbach but had flown into the traps as adults. In addition, females of autochthonous species with blood or with mature eggs were trapped, which were also considered to have flown in. Besides revealing a limitation of the trap construction, they supported the detailed interpretation of some intricated patterns of appearance. Variations in emergence patterns and specimen numbers between years and traps were pronounced, but only in a few cases could they be attributed to changes in abiotic factors such as water temperature or discharge. P. tomosvaryi had the most simple and regular life cycle, with one well synchronised emergence peak annually from April to May (or even to June). No gradient of specimen numbers along the stream was evident. The two closely related species S. vernum and S. cryophilum had quite similar emergence patterns: There were two broad peaks per year, extending mainly from March to June and from July to October or November. In some cases the number and separation of consecutive generations was not clear. The abundance of both species clearly decreased downstream, more so for S. cryophilum than for S. vernum. In a trap closest to a tributary spring, S. cryophilum was the dominant species during three of the four years examined. The adults of S. ornatum displayed an intricate pattern of appearance, with very low specimen numbers in spring and medium to very high numbers in July/August and September/October. S. ornatum is the only blackfly species that inhabits both the Breitenbach and the adjacent section of the Fulda river. It was shown that females emerging from the Fulda river regularly invade the Breitenbach valley in greatly varying numbers and oviposit there. This leads to overlapping larval cohorts with corresponding emergence peaks. Although S. ornatum was the most abundant species in one year in the lower traps (60 to 80% of all individuals), it remains uncertain whether it is a long-term, permanent member of the autochthonous blackfly fauna of the Breitenbach. Estimates of total numbers of flown-in adults, actual emergence, dry weight biomass, the ecological separation of the species and their life cycle strategies are discussed.     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

Precursory seismic crustal deformation in the area of southern Albanides

On the basis of growing evidence thatstrong earthquakes are preceded by a periodof accelerating seismicity of moderatemagnitude earthquakes, an attempt is madeto search for such seismicity pattern in NWAegean area. Accelerating seismic crustaldeformation has been identified in the areaof southern Albanides mountain range(border region between Greece, formerYugoslavia and Albania). Based on certainproperties of this activity and on itssimilarity with accelerating seismicdeformation observed before a strongearthquake which occurred in the sameregion on 26 May 1960 (M = 6.5), we canconclude that a similar earthquake may begenerated in the same region during thenext few years. This conclusion is inagreement with independent results whichhave been derived on the basis of the timepredictable model.     

社会主义市场经济条件下的土地储备及其模式选择

社会主义市场经济建设的逐步完善，要求我们必须改变传统的土地管理思路，土地储备作为政府经营城市的一种重要手段，能够使政府在土地管理的实践中实现资源与资产并重的目标。在阐述土地储备的涵义、起源及其在我国的产生与发展的基础上，分析了土地储备的运行机制与最终目标，归纳了我国土地储备的基本做法，首次提出了城市土地储备的直接储备模式和间接土地储备模式概念，并提出了地方政府构建城市土地储备模式的基本原则和具体操作思路。     

中国市场群落发展机制

市场群落的崛起已成为21世纪初中国市场经济发展的新景观，在概述市场群落的基本特点后，揭示其形成和演化的动力机制；继而对单个市场与群落型市场上经营者的行为方式特征进行了比较分析，表明群落型市场具有多方面的竞争优势；指出市场群落的空间扩张还促进了经济国际化与本地化的有机融合发展，同时认为，市场群落持续发展的根本在于保证商人的可持续发展，并提出了相应的对策建议。     

ENSO循环过程对南极海冰的影响

应用 1 951- 2 0 0 2年NINO特征指数 (NINO1 +2 ,NINO3 ,NINO4 ,NINO3 .4)和 1 973-1 998年南极海冰北界范围以及 1 950- 2 0 0 1年SODA海洋温度资料。首先分析探讨了在ElNi no期间 ,堆积于赤道东太平洋的异常暖水在南半球的传播途径 ,进而研究了ENSO以及东南太平洋异常海温场与南极海冰之间的关系。结果表明 ,在ElNino期间 ,堆积于赤道东太平洋的异常暖水 ,是沿秘鲁和智利沿岸向极传播。其传播过程持续大约 1年的时间 ,但未发现沿南赤道流的西传现象。ENSO循环过程与南极海冰变化存在一定联系 ,特别是Amundsen Belling shausen海和南极半岛海冰的变化与ENSO暖事件 (ElNino)较为密切。当ElNino事件发生后 ,时滞 2年左右的时间 ,Amundsen Bellingshausen海和南极半岛的海冰将出现明显的减少现象 ,特别是南极半岛的海冰减少最为明显。ElNino事件对南极海冰的影响过程是 ,堆积于赤道东太平洋的大量异常暖水 ,沿南美 (秘鲁和智利 )沿岸近海向极地传播 ,异常暖水的这种向极传播过程将引起近极的海温场出现异常升高 ,最终导致Amundsen Bellingshausen海和南极半岛地区的海冰减少。自 2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,Amundsen Bellingshausen海和南极半岛的海冰出现明显减少的趋势 ,与这一时期的ElNino事件的频繁发生     

Present land use and cover patterns and their development potential in North Ningxia

With the objectives to acquire the fundamental data of the territorial resource, understand the impacts of human activities on the land use and cover patterns and evaluate the potential of the future exploitation, an intensive land cover classification with an accuracy of 93% has been completed for North Ningxia by remote sensing technique based on the adoption of a combination method composed of texture training, maximum likelihood classification and post-processing such as re-allocation and aggregation. This classification result was incorporated with the contemporaneous socio-economic and meteorological data for cross-sectional regression modelling to reveal the spatial determinants of the land cover patterns and understand the human-environmental relationships. A tentative evaluation on the potential of soil exploitation in the near future was carried out in combination with our land use and cover change detection results aiming at supplying some useful references for the central and local governments in their sustainable land use planning.