Implications of global emission policy scenarios for domestic agriculture: a New Zealand case study

Agricultural GHG mitigation policies are important if ambitious climate change goals are to be achieved, and have the potential to significantly lower global mitigation costs [Reisinger, A., Havlik, P., Riahi, K., van Vliet, O., Obersteiner, M., & Herrero, M. (2013). Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Climatic Change, 117, 677–690]. In the post-Paris world of ‘nationally determined contributions’ to mitigation, the prospects for agricultural mitigation policies may rest on whether they are in the national economic interest of large agricultural producers. New Zealand is a major exporter of livestock products; this article uses New Zealand as a case study to consider the policy implications of three global policy scenarios at the global, national and farm levels. Building on global modelling, a model dairy farm and a model sheep and beef farm are used to estimate the changes in profit when agricultural emissions are priced and mitigated globally or not, and priced domestically or not, in 2020. Related to these scenarios is the metric or GHG exchange rate. Most livestock emissions are non-CO₂, with methane being particularly sensitive to the choice of metric. The results provide evidence that farm profitability is more sensitive to differing international policy scenarios than national economic welfare. The impact of the choice of metric is not as great as the impact of whether other countries mitigate agricultural emissions or not. Livestock farmers do best when agricultural emissions are not priced, as livestock commodity prices rise significantly due to competition for land from forestry. However, efficient farmers may still see a rise in profitability when agricultural emissions are fully priced worldwide.

Policy relevance

Exempting agricultural emissions from mitigation significantly increases the costs of limiting warming to 2 °C, placing the burden on other sectors. However, there may be a large impact on farmers if agricultural emissions are priced domestically when other countries are not doing the same. The impacts of global and national climate policies on farmers need to be better understood in order for climate policies to be politically sustainable. Transitional assistance that is not linked to emission levels could help, as long as the incentives to mitigate are maintained. In the long run, efficient farmers may benefit from climate policy; international efforts should focus on mitigation options and effective domestic policy development, rather than on metrics.     

Interactions between European agricultural policy and climate change: a Slovenian case study

This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007–2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture.

Policy relevance

Agricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for either ex ante or ex post evaluations of climate-relevant policy measures.     

基于德尔菲法的江西省“三农”气象服务效益评估

利用江西省2012年统计年鉴和20个农业气象服务体系和农村气象灾害防御体系（简称＂两个体系＂）建设实施县的专家测评调查结果（针对农业、林业、牧业、渔业4大重点行业和电力、水利、交通3个高相关行业的调查结果）,采用德尔菲法（专家评估法）,对2010—2013年江西省＂三农＂气象服务效益进行分析评估。结果表明,2010—2012年江西省农业总产值气象服务贡献率稳定在4.00%—4.90%,2012年＂三农＂气象服务对农业总产值效益的新增贡献率为2.6%。2010—2013年＂三农＂气象服务效益评估值分别为76.04、108.14、104.36和116.07亿元,投入产出比为1：3.3—1：7.8,2013年3个高相关行业的产值贡献率为4.0%—5.0%。     

Influences of international agricultural trade on the global phosphorus cycle and its associated issues

Industrial phosphorus (P) fertilizer has substantially improved global food production, but has also led to environmental impacts. Intensive global agricultural trade has increased and the impacts of trade on aggravating or alleviating future P scarcity must be examined, especially for the most vulnerable countries. We combined data to estimate the global P trade among countries and its impacts on global P flows, based on global agricultural trade, cropland soil P budgets and crop P fertilizer footprints (the amount of industrial P fertilizer applied for producing one unit of P in the harvested crop). The global agricultural P trade represented a fraction of 16% of P in harvested crops in 2014, half of which was exported from the United States of America, Brazil and the European Union and one fifth imported by China. Virtual P fertilizer flows (about 2.60 Tg P y^-1) referred to industrial P fertilizers applied to traded crops by exporting countries; thus, 1/3 of global virtual P fertilizer flows were associated with the international soybean trade. P use efficiency (PUE), the ratio of the harvested crop-P to the total external P inputs, is a larger problem for tropical than temperate countries. Global crop trade had brought in a net 0.2 Tg P y^-1 savings of industrial P fertilizers globally, compared to crop production in export and import countries. >0.50 Tg y^-1 of the gross global accumulation of soil P and P in freshwater were associated with global agricultural trade. Global PUE, however, could be improved considerably, and thus global cooperation and improving PUE could help to solve the problem of future P scarcity. Vulnerable countries should also propose urgent national plans to address their own situations of P scarcity or low PUE.     

Pathways to human well-being in the context of land acquisitions in Lao PDR

Land acquisitions are transforming land-use systems globally, and their characteristics and impacts on human well-being have been extensively analysed through local case studies and regional or global inventories. However, national-level analysis that is crucial for national policy on sustainable agricultural investments and land use is still lacking. This paper conducts an archetype analysis of a unique dataset on land concessions in Lao PDR to provide a national-scale assessment of the impacts of land acquisitions on human well-being in 294 affected villages. The results show that land acquisitions influence human well-being through 18 distinct pathways. These pathways describe how some land acquisitions enhance or maintain well-being, while others elicit adverse impacts or trade-offs between well-being dimensions, particularly food security, income, and livelihood resilience. They further reveal five archetypical processes that mediate the effects of land acquisitions on well-being through: (i) shifting access to land and natural resources; (ii) commercialization of agriculture; (iii) availability of development opportunities; (iv) environmental impacts; and (v) employment opportunities within and outside land acquisitions. These processes affect well-being by shaping livelihood portfolios and dependence on natural resources. The majority of land acquisitions trigger trade-offs or adverse impacts on well-being. The small number of villages where well-being increased despite the presence of land acquisitions were mainly shaped by narrow and rigid preconditions. The archetypical processes and the explanatory factors suggest that it is imperative to protect smallholders’ land-use rights and to avoid large-scale deals, as their adverse impacts outweigh opportunities and are more severe than the impacts of small-scale acquisitions. Employment opportunities may provide additional cash income but should not be exclusively relied upon.     

陕西省安康市西部稻田土壤硒形态特征与水稻富硒状况研究

[研究目的]对土壤中硒元素的有效吸收是水稻富硒的关键,而土壤中硒的形态则是影响水稻吸收能力的直接影响因素之一,为了探讨影响富硒土壤中硒的形态与水稻籽实中硒含量的关系,本文对陕西省安康市西部土壤开展了定量研究.[研究方法]本文对研究区土壤硒的形态以及水稻富硒状况进行测定,获得了土壤中各形态硒的赋存状态分布特征.[研究结果...     

平原地区农用地整理新增耕地潜力分析——以湖北省仙桃市为例

农村土地综合整治是发展农村的重要战略部署,随着全国土地整治规划的编制实施,各地土地整治规划编制进八重要阶段。农用地整理是新增耕地的重点和难点,做好潜力预测是科学编制土地整治规划的前提。本文通过分析平原地区农用地整理新增耕地潜力测算方法,对湖北仙桃市农用地整理新增耕地面积进行测算,结果显示其农用地整理潜力较大,新增耕地系数达到了30％,这与实地调查结果致,说明以典型田块八手可以有效预测平原地区农用地整理新增耕地潜力。     

基于反演基岩地震波的场地调整系数估计

基于KiK-net台阵中73个台站的一维土层模型和从不同地震中筛选的262条地表加速度记录,按照峰值加速度的分档标准和场地分类原则,将这些记录分成了28组.采用一维土层地震反应分析的等效线性化方法,反演计算了基岩输入加速度.通过分别计算各组基于有效峰值加速度EPA的场地放大倍数,并得到了各类场地的有效峰值加速度的调整系...     

Measurements of 460 GHz Atmospheric Opacity at Yangbajing Observational Station†

In order to assess the submillimeter wave observational conditions of Yangbajin, a Portable Submillimeter Telescope (POST) is used to measure the zenith atmospheric opacity at 460 GHz from November 2008 to December 2008. The results show that the quartiles of atmospheric opacity during the observing time at 460 GHz at Yangbajin Observatory is 1.25, 1.42 and 1.63, and the time proportion of atmospheric opacity less than 1 is about 3.4%. At last, the submillimeter wave site conditions of Yangbajin with those of other submillimeter observatories in the world are compared, and the possible causes that may influence the submillimeter atmospheric opacity are explored.     

浅析增减挂钩政策在黄河滩区居民迁建工作中的作用——以山东省菏泽市为例

土地增减挂钩政策具有的多重效应,在山东省菏泽市黄河滩区居民迁建工作中起到了推动作用。既能为黄河滩区居民迁建筹集资金,还能为黄河滩区后期的经济建设发展提供有力支撑。使滩区发展同乡村振兴、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展等战略有效衔接,持续巩固脱贫攻坚成果,拓宽增收致富渠道,确保黄河滩区群众安居乐业。