生态保护红线成效评估框架与指标方法

生态保护红线是在自然保护区、重点生态功能区、风景名胜区、森林公园等诸多区域生态管理制度不断实践基础上,面对中国国土开发和生态保护的复杂关系,继承和创新提出的一种新型区域生态管控制度,已经成为推动国家生态文明建设的重大战略。如何科学评估生态保护红线保护成效,服务于生态保护红线综合管理和保障区域生态安全,成为普遍关注的热点问题之一。针对已有的区域生态保护成效评估案例的不足,基于划定生态保护红线是为保障国家和区域生态安全的基本认知,围绕着生态保护红线“生态功能不降低、面积不减少、性质不改变”的管控目标,以生态保护红线对区域生态系统保护作用为主要出发点,提出生态保护成效评估框架和指标方法。生态保护成效评估以生态系统类型构成和生态系统服务功能为内容主线,通过多维度时空尺度拓展,耦合分析生态保护红线内外、实施前后的生态状况变化,综合评估生态保护红线对保障区域生态安全的贡献和改善区域生态状况的作用。进而,可以关联分析可能引起生态保护红线生态状况变化的管控政策、制度和其他间接驱动因素,评估政策实施成效评估。实证上选择海南省生态保护红线和广东省严格控制区为案例进行了讨论。     

基于共生理论的中国沿海省市海洋经济生态协调模式研究

建立海洋生态与海洋经济的共生演化Logistic模型,通过压力-状态-影响-响应（PSIR）模型对Logistic模型中的基本指数进行求解,进一步计算海洋生态与海洋经济之间的共生系数,结果表明：天津和上海两市发展模式已摆脱资源索取模式,其海洋经济生态共生模式的探讨意义较小;其余沿海九省中,河北、江苏、广西和海南4省处于反向共生水平,辽宁和山东两省呈现并生模式,浙江和广东呈现出生态受益的偏利共生模式,福建则呈现出经济受害的偏利共生模式。根据沿海各省市海洋经济生态共生模式,提出相关的政策建议,以期对沿海省市今后的经济和生态发展模式提供理论依据。     

基于贝叶斯网络的水源涵养服务空间格局优化

以渭河流域关中—天水经济区段（简称“渭河流域关天段”）为研究区,基于贝叶斯网络和水量平衡原理建立了水源涵养服务网络模型;将CA-Marcov模型与贝叶斯网络模型相结合,预测了2050年不同土地利用情景及其水源涵养服务分布概率;提出了关键变量关键状态子集方法,对研究区水源涵养服务空间格局进行优化。结果表明：① 保护情景下,林地面积增长了18.12%,其主要来源为耕地;草地和城市面积增长缓慢,分别增加了0.73%和0.38%;水体和未利用地分别减少了5.08%和0.92%,该情景下的水源涵养量值偏高的概率在3种情景中最大,保护情景的设计对未来的土地利用政策制定具有一定参考价值。② 水源涵养服务的关键影响因子是降水、蒸散发和土地利用,水源涵养量最高状态对应的关键变量关键状态子集是：﹛降水= 1,蒸散发= 2,土地利用= 2﹜,该子集主要分布在年平均降雨量和蒸散发量较大,植被覆盖率高的地区。③ 研究区适宜优化水源涵养的区域主要分布在天水市麦积区南部、宝鸡市陇县西南部和渭滨区南部、咸阳市旬邑县东北部和永寿县西北部,以及铜川市耀州区西部。结合贝叶斯网络模型研究水源涵养服务的优化区域,不仅有助于提升对生态系统水源涵养服务过程的直观认识,而且增加了情景设计和格局优化的合理性。在此基础上提出的关键状态关键因子方法,对研究区水源涵养生态环境建设和政策制定都具有重要的意义。     

三峡库区规模农地时空变化特征及其驱动机制

探讨库区农地利用的转型及其机制,可反映中西部结合带、山区、库区的农村变化和人与环境关系的变化,为典型山区的农业多功能转型发展方向提供科学依据。选取三峡库区腹地5个区县为研究区,通过定义“规模农地”相关概念,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件并结合SPSS、地理空间探测器等技术手段对规模农地的变化与机制进行分析。研究发现：规模农地的转移来源主要由耕地和灌木林地组成,除部分高山反季节蔬菜,规模农地的增长一般发生在低海拔地区,且在坡度30°范围内均有分布;不同类型的规模农地空间变化有所不同,但均与道路和乡镇级行政中心的关系明显。斑块水平上,高程、坡度等自然因素对规模农地的贡献相对较大;乡镇水平上以道路交通、农业人口密度等社会经济与人文因素驱动力为主;区域水平上,各区县的驱动因子影响力较研究区整体尺度更为显著。规模农地的变化与发展受多种因素驱动,但农业政策始终是各驱动因素的主导,不同水平的行为主体会促使规模农地发展趋向不同的方向,但原则上均受国家农业发展现状与政府政策导向影响。     

A comparison of results from geomorphological diversity evaluation methods in the Polish Lowland (Toruń Basin and Chełmno Lakeland)

Geomorphological diversity is part of geodiversity. Study and evaluation of geodiversity, including geomorphological diversity, is often conducted in uplands and mountains, despite the fact that lowland areas are of equal importance. This paper evaluates geomorphological diversity in a small area of the Polish Lowland, using a variety of methods that have been applied in recent times for evaluating geodiversity, and presents the results on maps. By comparing these maps and analyzing the correlation coefficients of the results obtained, it was possible to identify the two methods that were best suited to indicating areas with the greatest geomorphological diversity in the lowlands. These two methods are least affected by the choice of elementary fields and data classification methods applied. The study identified the two areas with the greatest relief diversity and showed that they distinctly differ from one another. They demonstrate the major influence of processes, not only on the topographic parameters and landform types, but above all on identifying and defining total geomorphological diversity. These methods, which can be used to identify the areas with the greatest total geomorphological diversity, could readily be used in applied studies relating to abiotic ecosystem services and landscape management.     

Regional differentiation of ecological conservation and its zonal suitability at the county level in China

China’s investments, financial incentives and deductions in terms of ecological conservation are based at the county level. Therefore, the monitoring and assessment of the effects of ecological conservation at the county level is important to provide a scientific basis for the assessment of the ecological and environmental quality at the county scale. This paper quantitatively estimated the dynamics of high-quality ecosystems and vegetation coverage over the past 15 years, and their relationships with the number of ecological conservation programs at the county level were analyzed. Then, the effects of ecological conservation measures on ecological changes at the county level and their regional suitability were assessed and discussed. The results showed that counties with a percentage of high-quality ecosystems greater than 50% were primarily distributed in northeastern China, southern subtropical China and the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and those with a percentage lower than 20% were mostly distributed in northwestern China, the southwestern karst region and the North China Plain. In recent decades, ecological conservation has focused on ecologically fragile regions; more than five ecological conservation programs have been implemented in most counties of the Three River Source Region in Qinghai Province, southeastern Tibet, western Sichuan, the Qilian Mountains, southern Xinjiang and other western regions, while only one or zero have been implemented in the eastern coastal area of China. Over the past 15 years, the proportional area of high-quality ecosystems has increased in approximately 53% of counties. The vegetation coverage of counties in the Loess Plateau, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji), Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing, and Guangdong-Guangxi provincial-level areas has increased significantly. However, it decreased in northern Xinjiang, central Tibet, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions. The relationships between the numbers of ecological conservation programs and the indicators of ecosystem restoration response, such as high-quality ecosystem and vegetation coverage, do not show positive correlations. These results suggest that ecological conservation programs should be planned and implemented according to the distribution patterns of high-quality ecosystems and that restoration measures such as afforestation should follow natural principles and regional differentiation under the background of climate change.     

Analysis of the coupled relationship between grain yields and agricultural labor changes in China

In this paper we establish a model that expresses the coupled relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes in China, and present a preliminary discussion of the coupled processes involved in changes in these factors at the county level. Thus, we develop two coefficients on the basis of county-level statistical data for grain yield and agricultural labor for the years 1991, 2000, and 2010, namely, the grain-labor elasticity coefficient (GLEC) and the agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient (ALTEC). The results of this study show that during the transformation process of agricultural development in China, different kinds of coupled relationships between grain yield and agricultural labor changes co-existed at the same time. For example, between 1991 and 2010, counties characterized by three different coupled modes (i.e., increasing grain yield and decreasing agricultural labor, increasing grain yield and agricultural labor, and decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor) account for 48.85%, 29.11%, and 19.74% of the total across the study area, respectively. Interestingly, a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and decreasing agricultural labor is mainly concentrated in the traditional farming areas of China, while a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and agricultural labor is primarily concentrated in pastoral areas and agro-pastoral ecotones in underdeveloped western China. At the same time, a coupled relationship between decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor is concentrated in areas that have experienced a rapid development transition in agriculture, especially the developed southeastern coast of China. The results of this study also show that between 1991 and 2010, 1961 counties experienced a decline in the proportion of agricultural labor; of these, 1452 are also characterized by increasing grain yield, 72.38% of the total. This coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in the proportion of agricultural labor shows a stepped fluctuation and has continually strengthened over time. Data show that mean values for the GLEC and ALTEC increased from–0.25 and–2.93 between 1991 and 2000 to–0.16 and–1.78 between 2000 and 2010, respectively. These changes in GLEC and ALTEC illustrate that the influence of agricultural labor changes on increasing grain yields has gradually diminished. Finally, the results of this study reveal that the ‘Hu Huanyong Line’ is a significant boundary sub-dividing this coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in agricultural labor.     

Ecosystem Carbon Allocation of a Temperate Mixed Forest and a Subtropical Evergreen Forest in China

Ecosystem carbon allocation can indicate ecosystem carbon cycling visually through its quantification within different carbon pools and carbon exchange. Using the ecological inventory and eddy covariance measurement applied to both a mature temperate mixed forest in Changbai Mountain (CBM) and a mature subtropical evergreen forest in Dinghu Mountain (DHM), we partitioned the ecosystem carbon pool and carbon exchange into different components, determined the allocation and analyzed relationships within those components. Generally, the total carbon stock of CBM was slightly higher than that of DHM due to a higher carbon stock in the arbor layer at CBM. It was interesting that the proportions of carbon stock in vegetation, soil and litter were similar for the two mature forests. The ratio of vegetation carbon pool to soil carbon stock was 1.5 at CBM and 1.3 at DHM. However, more carbon was allocated to the trunk and root from the vegetation carbon pool at CBM, while more carbon was allocated to foliage and branches at DHM. Moreover, 77% of soil carbon storage was limited to the surface soil layer (0-20 cm), while there was still plentiful carbon stored in the deeper soil layers at DHM. The root/shoot ratios were 0.30 and 0.25 for CBM and DHM, respectively. The rates of net ecosystem productivity (NPP) to gross ecosystem productivity (GPP) were 0.76 and 0.58, and the ratios of ecosystem respiration (Re) to GPP were 0.98 and 0.87 for CBM and DHM, respectively. The net ecosystem carbon exchange/productivity (NEP) was 0.24 t C ha^-1 yr^-1 for CBM and 3.38 t C ha^-1 yr^-1 for DHM. Due to the common seasonal and inter-annual variations of ecosystem carbon exchange resulting from the influence of environmental factors, it was necessary to use the long record dataset to evaluate the ecosystem sink capacity.     

湖南省油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标

以湖南省油菜为研究对象,综合洪涝与连阴雨的致灾因子,利用历史灾情数据反演涝渍过程样本,构建临灾、受灾状态样本,采用均值t检验方法,定量分析不同降水累积衰减系数w情况下,降水因子差异的显著性,构建有效累积降水量P_E。基于Fisher判别准则,计算涝渍灾害临灾与受灾的临界线,构建逐日动态的油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标y,并进行涝渍过程样本反演及独立样本验证。分析春季涝渍受灾频率与相对气象产量的关系,构建灾害影响评价模型。结果表明:当w=0.899时,受灾与临灾样本P_E的差异最显著。灾变判别指标y可逐日动态监测涝渍灾变过程及灾害后续影响,为动态监测区域油菜涝渍过程提供了数据支撑;指标指示的灾变范围与实际受灾情况基本一致,为区域防灾减灾提供了科学参考。开花期及结荚期湖南油菜涝渍受灾频率较高,成熟期较低。湖南省油菜春季涝渍灾害影响指数呈东南高西北低,长沙东部、株洲中部及北部、湘潭、永州及郴州中部油菜产量受涝渍灾害影响最重。     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.