2-D NUMERICAL MODEL FOR FLOOD FORECAST IN RIVERS WITH HEAVILY SEDIMENT LADEN FLOW

I.INTRODUCTIONTwo-dimensionalnumericalmodelisaPOwerfoltoolforengineersandriVermanagerstopredictfloodhydxaulics,identifyareasofinundation,anddesignoptionsforfloodcontrollingstructures.SomespecialproblemswithheavilysedimentladenflowriVershouldbecarefullyconsideredforthenumericalmodeldesigning;1.theplaneformofariVerisusuallybraidedanditsmainchannelshiftsoften.Themainchannelandbarreplaceeachotherseveraltimesinonefloodevent.Atagivenlocationthewaterdepthmaychangefromover10meterstoseveralcenhm…     

洪水的分类预测及优化调度

用系统聚类方法将历史洪水数据分成若干类型,并建立了模糊概率预测的隶属度回归方法。由此对未来洪水进行了分类概率预测,结果显示了来水过程具有一定的“类型可预报”的规律性。在此基础上讨论了一种Bayes实时优化调度规则并进行了数值模拟演算。     

THE EARLY SUMMER FLOOD PERIODS OF SOUTHERN CHINA AND THE SUMMER MONSOON CIRCULATION OF EAST ASIA

Based on the thermodynamic characteristics of the summer monsoon and foe change of the lower layer wind fields, the relation between the early summer flood periods of southern China, Including the first flood period of South China and the plum rains period of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the activities of the summer monsoon is analysed.The establishment processes of the summer monsoon circulation of East Asia are investigated.It is shown that the beginning and ending of the flood periods are exactly in accordance with the arrival and departure of the fore boundary of the summer monsoon.The establishment process of the circulation from the very beginning of the arrival of the monsoon to the time of great prosperity of development are not the same for each year.They can be classified into four categories.Each category may have four or three stages.Besides, the structure of the summer monsoon regime of East Asia is not unitary.There exist four types of structure model of the monsoon regime of East Asia.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD FOR DAM SAFETY ASSESSMENT

ＰＲＯＢＡＢＬＥＭＡＸＩＭＵＭＦＬＯＯＤＦＯＲＤＡＭＳＡＦＥＴＹＡＳＳＥＳＳＭＥＮＴＣ．Ｆ．ＬＥＥ（Ｆｏｒｍｅｒｌｙ，ＭａｎａｇｅｒｏｆＧｅｏｔｅｃｈｎｉｃａｌａｎｄＨｙｄｒａｕｌｉｃＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔ；ＭａｎａｇｅｒｏｆＣｉ...     

长江下游感潮河段大洪水和特大洪水的形成及趋势

分析了长江下游感潮河段大洪水和特大洪水高水位形成的水文因素,揭示了年最高水位今后一段时期内可能的变化趋势。主要结论是:该河段大洪水和特大洪水高水位的形成原因十分复杂,本世纪以来每次大洪水和特大洪水高水位的形成几乎都有其主要原因;该河段大洪水特大洪水高水位出现的频次有增加趋势;自1975年以来,年最高水位的均值呈明显的升高趋势,其主要原因是人类活动对防洪产生的负面影响,海平面上升也有一定的影响。     

论沿海低地洪涝灾害测度问题

选取频遭洪涝灾害威胁与危害的沿海平原低地，试图建立描述洪涝强度的等级测度模式，并分析其减灾意义。     

中国热带气旋暴雨洪水的分布和水文特性

描述了由热带气旋形成和影响的暴雨及其洪水的地域分布,给出了区划;讨论了热带气旋暴雨洪水的水文特性,并与非热带气旋暴雨洪水作了比较。     

Hydrological impacts of flow regulation associated with the Upper Nepean water supply scheme,NSW

The upper Nepean River has been progressively regulated for water supply to Sydney and Wollongong since 1886 by the Upper Nepean Water Supply Scheme which consists of four large dams, two small dams and two diversion weirs. Secular rainfall changes produced periods of high rainfall and large floods (flood‐dominated regimes) between 1857 and 1900 and 1947 and the present, and an intervening period (1901–46) of low rainfall and small floods (drought‐dominated regime). Upstream impoundment and flow regulation significantly reduced flood magnitudes for most return periods during both types of flood regimes. The probability distribution of mean daily flows was also changed significantly by flow regulation such that during the drought‐dominated regime, the high and low frequency flows were reduced substantially but the moderate frequency flows were increased due to dam releases; the change from a regulated drought‐dominated regime to a regulated flood‐ dominated regime resulted in a substantial increase in discharge for most durations; and increased water diversions to Wollongong during the current flood‐dominated regime produced a marked downward shift in the whole flow duration curve. Nepean Dam reduced downstream suspended sediment yields by two orders of magnitude because it traps in excess of 99 per cent of the inflowing suspended sediment load. Streamflow releases are urgently required from the two diversion weirs to improve downstream water quality and to ensure the viability of the resident ‘potentially threatened’ eastern Macquarie perch (Macquaria nov. sp.).     

Unbiased estimation of flood risk with the GEV distribution

Conventional flood frequency analysis is concerned with providing an unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the design flow exceeded with the probabilityp, but sampling uncertainties imply that such estimates will, on average, be exceeded more frequently. An alternative approach is therefore, to derive an estimator which gives an unbiased estimate of flow risk: the difference between the two magnitudes reflects uncertainties in parameter estimation. An empirical procedure has been developed to estimate the mean true exceedance probabilities of conventional estimates made using a GEV distribution fitted by probability weighted moments, and adjustment factors have been determined to enable the estimation of flood magnitudes exceeded with, on average, the desired probability.     

A comparison of model calculations and measurements of acetone in the troposphere and stratosphere

We present 1-D eddy diffusion model calculations of the distributions of propane and acetone in the atmosphere for continental conditions. The magnitude of the surface seasonal variation in propane mixing ratios that we obtain is in general agreement with measurements at the surface and in the free troposphere. A comparison of the absolute values of the model with propane measurements suggests that a larger surface flux than we have used may be more appropriate for continental conditions. The acetone model results for summer conditions that we obtain are also in reasonable accord with measurements. However, we find serious disagreement between the model winter profiles of acetone and the measurements at the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere. The measured values are lower than the model values at 45° N by a factor of 7–30. In addition, it is also surprising that, given the relatively long lifetime of acetone, free tropospheric values of acetone more representative of surface values have not been measured. The results simulating the decay of elevated levels of propane in the upper troposphere caused by rapid convective transport of boundary layer air indicate that propane will be primarily dispersed by transport rather than destroyed photochemically. Thus, the impact on acetone and PAN is minimal.