环胶州湾流域总氮总量控制指标体系研究

通过建立胶州湾ECOM三维水动力-生物地球化学耦合模型,采用浓度梯度积分法和水质模拟-数学规划法,构建了环胶州湾流域总氮总量控制指标体系,包含胶州湾总氮环境容量、环胶州湾流域污染源、子流域、行政区和入海控制单元总氮总量控制指标。结果表明:研究海域总氮海洋环境容量为1.8×10~4 t/a,且季节变化显著(P<0.05),夏季最高,春季次之,秋季和冬季较低;环胶州湾流域68个点源污染源总氮总量控制指标合计1 040.78 t/a,总氮面源总量控制指标为3 947.5 t/a;环胶州湾1 281个子流域、125个乡镇、10个区市和10个入海控制单元总氮污染物总量控制指标具有显著的空间差异(P<0.05);位于胶州湾湾顶区的入海控制单元的总氮污染物需削减量较高,位于湾口的入海控制单元需削减量较低。研究结果可为相关管理部门有效利用胶州湾海洋环境容量资源及制定相关决策提供科学依据。     

基于公交大数据的满载率推算方法 ——以深圳市为例

城市可持续发展需要提升公共交通的供给能力。公汽满载率是公交规划、调度和服务评价等方面的重要参数。在公交信息化水平不断提升的背景下,由公交IC卡数据和公共汽车GPS数据等构成的公交大数据为获得相对精确的客流提供了可能。虽然已有相对稳定的OD推算方法,但对于公汽满载率的研究尚不够充分。本文提出基于历史公交大数据的大规模公交出行链搜素算法,在此基础上构建公共汽车满载率数据库,并以深圳市为例揭示了高满载率线路段的时空分布特征。本文研究对于揭示公汽服务整体水平和探测关键公交廊道具有较大价值。     

上海地区地磁场加卸载响应比与地震

应用地磁场加卸载响应比方法,计算处理了佘山地震台１９８１～１９９７年和崇明地震台１９８３～１９９７年的地磁场垂直分量日变幅资料,研究了１９８０年以来上海邻区发生的３次中强地震前的响应比值Ｐ（Ｚ）的变化特征,找出了该方法适用于上海地区的地震中短期判定指标,以指导地震趋势判断和提高综合预测水平     

Analytic Solution of Elasto-Plastic Stress in Infinite Slope under Uniform Load

-According to the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion,the stress field of the infinite slope is derivedunder a vertical uniform load q on the top of the slope.It is indicated that elastic and elasto-plastic stateswould occur in the slope.When q is smaller than the critical load,q_p,the slope is in the elastic state.Ifq equals q_p,the slope is in the critical state,and the plastic deformation would occur along the critical an-gle.With the increase of q,the plastic zone would extend,and the slope is in the elasto-plastic state.Ifq equals limit load,the slope is in the limit equilibrium state.The slope may be divided into three zones.Some charts of the critical angle,the critical and limit load coefficients are presented in this paper.     

Numerical Model of Total Sediment Transport in the Yangtze Estuary

Based on the non-equilibrium suspended load transport equation,bed load transport equationand sediment transport capacity formulas derived by Dou et al.,a 2-D numerical model of total sedimenttransport in the Yangtze Estuary is presented.In the model,the actions of tidal currents and wind waves andthe effect of salinity on sediment transport are considered.An automatically generated boundary-fitted grid isused to fit the boundaries of the estuary and the boundaries of engineering projects.The verification of calcu-lations shows that the sediment concentration,the deformation of riverbed and siltation in the channels causedby typhoons can be successfully simulated.     

中国的水库泥沙淤积问题

由于我国有许多河流是含沙最高、输沙量大的多泥沙河流,水库泥沙淤积问题异常严重．主要表现在：淤积数量大,淤积速率快．据统计,截止到1981年底全国水库总淤积量达115×10~8m~3．占统计水库总库容的14．2％．年平均库容损失率达2．3％,高于世界各国．水库的严重淤积,不仅影响水库兴利效益的发挥,严重威胁水库的使用寿命,而且还造成一系列在进行水库规划时未曾充分估计到的环境问题．本文重点从河流水文泥沙特性、我国水库淤积问题的严重性、水库淤积引起的问题及水库防淤减淤措施等4个方面作一较全面的分析和探讨．     

Multigene genetic programming for sediment transport modeling in sewers for conditions of non-deposition with a bed deposit

It is known that construction of large sewers based on consideration of flow with non-deposition without a bed deposit is not economical. Sewer design based on consideration of flow with non-deposition with a bed deposit reduces channel bed slope and construction cost in which the presence of a small depth of sediment deposition on the bed increases the sediment transport capacity of the flow. This paper suggests a new Pareto-optimal model developed by the multigene genetic programming (MGGP) technique to estimate particle Froude number (Fr_p) in large sewers with conditions of sediment deposition on the bed. To this end, four data sets including wide ranges of sediment size and concentration, deposit thickness, and pipe size are used. On the basis of different statistical performance indices, the efficiency of the proposed Pareto-optimal MGGP model is compared to those of the best MGGP model developed in the current study as well as the conventional regression models available in the literature. The results indicate the higher efficiency of the MGGP-based models for Fr_p estimation in the case of no additional deposition onto a bed with a sediment deposit. Inasmuch as the Pareto-optimal MGGP model utilizes a lower number of input parameters to yield comparatively higher performance than the conventional regression models, it can be used as a parsimonious model for self-cleansing design of large sewers in practice.     

基于非定常面元法的海上浮式风机气动性能研究

对于海上浮式风机而言,由于受到剪切风、塔影效应、浮式基础运动等因素的共同影响,其气动载荷会更加复杂,因此如何准确快速地对海上风力机的气动性能进行预估显得尤为重要。基于速度势的非定常面元法理论,研究海上浮式风机气动载荷特性,编制了相关的计算程序。以NREL 5 MW风机为例,建立了叶片和尾流的三维数值模型,计算得到了不同风速下风机的输出功率以及叶片表面的压力分布,对比数据结果分析了该方法的可靠性。针对非定常流动,模拟了剪切风和塔影效应的作用,并重点分析了浮式基础运动对风机气动载荷的影响。研究表明,浮式基础的纵荡和纵摇会增加输出功率的波动幅值,艏摇运动会导致单个叶片上的气动载荷产生较大的波动,为浮式风机叶片控制提供了参考。     

设施农业生产区降雨径流和氮磷输出特征及模拟——以滇池东岸花卉大棚种植区为例

为掌握滇池流域花卉大棚种植区的非点源污染特征,提高和改善滇池水环境质量,本研究选取呈贡县斗南村花卉大棚种植区作为研究对象,在实测降雨径流数据的基础上,通过建立Storm Water Management Model模型分别对全年连续降雨条件下和典型设计降雨条件下的降雨径流水质、水量进行了模拟.研究结果表明:1)模型的流量、化学需氧量(COD_(Cr))、悬浮物(SS)、总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.858、0.835、0.803、0.712和0.752,能够较好地模拟研究区域的水质、水量变化.2)研究区域的平均径流系数为0.59,CODCr、SS、TN和TP的单位面积负荷率分别为118.34、82.90、54.64和5.46 kg/(hm~2·a),TN和TP是主要控制的污染物.3)各污染物浓度峰值的出现时间均早于流量峰值出现的时间,因此对滇池东岸花卉大棚种植区应进行污染物尤其是TP、TN浓度与流量错峰控制.     

水库库容变化对蓟县地震台DSQ型水管倾斜仪观测的影响

对比于桥水库库容变化与蓟县地震台DSQ型水管仪观测数据表明,水库容量对水管仪长周期趋势性变化影响不大,蓄水和泄水过程中库容量变化与水管仪观测数据不存在相关关系。根据近场三维不规则形状荷载模型,对于于桥水库3次蓄水和3次泄水过程,定量计算库容变化对蓟县地震台DSQ型水管倾斜仪观测影响的理论值,结果表明,库容变化引起的水管仪倾斜值与实际观测数据变化幅度相比小得多,库容改变不足以对水管仪倾斜观测造成显著干扰。该分析结果可在观测资料异常判定中提供参考。