高空西北气流下铜仁东部特大暴雨的预报分析及思考

利用贵州省预报业务常规、地面自动站加密观测资料、NCEP/FNL1°×1°再分析资料、业务数值预报模式,分析2020年6月29日铜仁市东部高空西北气流影响下的特大暴雨环境场特征,地面中小尺度场特征以及3家数值预报模式检验,初步分析产生此次特大暴雨的可能成因是在副高东南退,东北冷涡槽后高空西北气流维持,低层冷平流下传西输,地面辐合维持增强为涡旋,地面东路弱冷空气侵入,能量锋区斜压性增强;短临监测发现雷达回波有列车效应,低层辐合高层辐散的共轭配置,中层气旋式辐合;初步得出了西北气流影响下弱天气尺度环境场的铜仁市东部暴雨的预报着眼点。     

Isotopic constraints on fluid infiltration from an eclogite facies shear zone, Holsenøy, Norway

Granulite facies anorthosites on Holsenøy Island in the Bergen Arcs region of western Norway are transected by shear zones 0.1–100 m wide characterized by eclogite facies assemblages. Eclogite formation is related to influx of fluid along the shears at temperatures of c. 700d?C and pressures in excess of 1.7 GPa. Combined carbon and nitrogen stable isotope, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar, trace-element and petrological data have been used to determine the nature and distribution of fluids across the anorthosite-eclogite transition. A metre-wide drilled section traverses the eclogitic centre of the shear into undeformed granulite facies garnet-clinopyroxene anorthosite. Clinozoisite occurs along grain boundaries and microcracks in undeformed anorthosite up to 1 m from the centre of the shear and clinozoisite increases in abundance as the edge of the shear zone is approached. The eclogite-granulite transition, marked by the appearance of sodic pyroxene and loss of albite, occurs within the most highly sheared section of the traverse. The jadeite-in reaction coincides with increased paragonite activity in mica. The separation between paragonite and clinozoisite reaction fronts can be semiquantitatively modelled assuming advective fluid flow perpendicular to the shear zone. The inner section of the traverse (0.25 m wide) is marked by retrogressive replacement of omphacite by plagioclase + paragonite accompanied by veins of quartz-phengite-plagioclase. C-N-Ar characteristics of fluid inclusions in garnet show that fluids associated with precursor granulite, eclogite and retrogressed eclogite are isotopically distinct. The granulite-eclogite transition coincides with a marked change in CO₂ abundance and δ¹³C (<36ppm, δ¹³C=-2% in the granulite; <180 ppm, δ¹³C=-10% in the eclogite). The distribution of Ar indicates mixing between influxed fluid (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar > 25 times 10³) and pre-existing Ar in the granulite (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar < 8 times 10³). δ¹⁵N values decrease from +6% in the anorthosite to +3% within the eclogite shear. The central zone of retrogressed eclogite post-dates shearing and is characterised by substantial enrichment of Si, K, Ba and Rb. Fluids are CO₂-rich (δ¹³C ～ -5%) with variable N₂ and Ar abundances and isotopic compositions. Both Ar and H₂O have penetrated the underformed granulite fabric more than 0.5m beyond the granulite/eclogite transition during eclogite formation. Argon isotopes show a mixing profile consistent with diffusion through an interconnecting H₂O-rich fluid network. In contrast, a carbon-isotope front coincides with the deformation boundary layer, indicating that the underformed anorthosite was impervious to CO₂-rich fluids. This is consistent with the high dihedral angle of carbonic fluids, and may be interpreted in terms of evolving fluid compositions within the shear zone.     

典型非球形冰晶粒子的凝华增长数值模拟试验

在凝华增长过程中,冰晶的形状随着温度和湿度的改变而改变,准确模拟冰晶粒子的演变对于提高云模式的模拟能力起着非常重要的作用。在现有的云模式中,冰晶形状通常假设为球形,而在实际大气中,冰晶形状十分复杂。本研究中,我们根据冰晶凝华增长理论模型建立了一个单个冰晶粒子增长模型,模拟了温度分别为-1℃~-30℃时,单个典型非球形冰晶粒子的凝华增长过程。与风洞观测数据相对比,该模型能够抓住单个冰晶粒子的轴长,质量以及纵横比随温度和湿度的变化过程。我们进一步将该理论增长模型应用到群粒子的凝华增长过程的模拟。我们釆用欧拉二维正定平流输送法(MPDATA)模拟了典型非球形冰晶群粒子的凝华增长,并对比分析了在不同纵横比分辨率下的模拟效果以及温度变化对冰晶形状的影响,结果表明运用该数值方法可以合理地模拟出群粒子在凝华增长过程中纵横比的演变。与目前采用的拉格朗日-欧拉混合平流算法比较,该算法能够耦合到欧拉动力框架下的分档云模式中去,这对我们研究冰晶粒子形状对云微物理过程和动力过程的影响,以及它们对冰粒子凝华增长的反馈作用具有非常重要的科学意义。     

离散点气象要素平流外推模型

大气平流方程一般用于格点场数值预报的处理,鲜有应用到离散点要素外推。离散点平流外推模型不仅使时间方向站点资料补缺更具物理意义,而且为站点要素的预报奠定基础。模型首先根据站点离散特征,对平流方程进行改造,得到离散点风速、梯度本征向量,并通过频数统计拟合出平流项似然概率的高斯表达式,以此计算出新平流方程数值解。通过对单点和多点的实况试验,得出了模型的具体应用特点,并给出了一个实际的数据补缺场景,作用显著。该模型具有小巧、高效,易用等特点,有良好的普适性,作为一个通用的数学模型,为离散点的要素预报提供了一种新的思路。     

盛夏南海北部台风和热带低压登陆前、后的对比分析

盛夏南海北部台风与热带低压登陆前、后对比诊断分析表明，影响这两类热带低值系统发展的物理因子和过程为：涡度平流作用对二者在海上发展都不利；有利的大尺度环境流场造成的气旋性辐合、气压场作功以及积云对流活动造成的涡度、扰动动能、热量的积累是台风，低压发展的基本因子；台风发展以斜压转换过程明显，热带低压发展以正压转换过程为主。     

Physical forcing of onshore transport of crab megalopae in the northern Portuguese upwelling system

Wind-driven circulation is a mechanism that may be involved in the shoreward transport of invertebrate larvae. This study investigated the temporal variability of the supply of crab megalopae to an estuary located in the northwest coast of Portugal, which is affected by seasonal upwelling, and related variations in supply to several upwelling indices. Megalopae of the European common shore crab Carcinus maenas (L.). were collected daily, using artificial settlement substrates, during a 3-month period, from March 15 to June 15, 2000. Two settlement episodes were detected, which were consistent with the variation in abundance and size of juvenile crabs. Variations in subtidal sea level and sea surface temperature anomaly were correlated with the strength of along-shore wind stress and consistent with upwelling theory. Contingency analyses showed positive significant associations between increasing intensity of southerly winds and megalopal supply, for time lags of 0–6 d, indicating that shoreward transport occurred during relaxation or reversal of upwelling favourable winds. Associations between megalopal supply and tidal range or the duration of nocturnal flood were not detected. Compared to other studies of the supply of crab megalopae to coastal habitats that used a similar methodology, very low numbers of megalopae were collected during this study. The paucity of C. maenas megalopae in the Ria de Aveiro is in agreement with the low densities of this larval stage in the plankton, and indicates that maintenance of the population is achieved despite a low supply of megalopae.     

Numerical study of the storm-induced circulation on the Scotian Shelf during Hurricane Juan using a nested-grid ocean model

A nested-grid ocean circulation modelling system is used to assess the upper ocean response of the Scotian Shelf and adjacent slope to Hurricane Juan in September 2003. The nested-grid system consists of a fine-grid inner model covering the Scotian Shelf/slope and a coarse-grid outer model covering the northwest Atlantic Ocean. The model-calculated upper ocean response to Hurricane Juan is characterized by large divergent surface currents forced by the local wind forcing under the storm, and intense near-inertial currents in the wake of the storm. The sea surface temperature (SST) cooling produced by the model is biased to the right of the storm track and agrees well with a satellite-derived analysis. Over the deep water, off the Scotian Shelf, some of the near-inertial energy input by the storm is advected eastward by the Gulf Stream away from the storm track. The hurricane also generates shelf waves that propagate equatorward with the coastline on their right. In comparison with the outer model results, the inner model captures more meso-scale structures, greater SST cooling and stronger near-inertial currents in the study region.     

南海海区热带气旋移速突变的分析

应用天气学与动力学相结合的方法,分析发现:鞍型场、西风槽和双热带气旋形势是热带气旋移速突变的环流背景。在上述环流背景的条件下,涡度、涡度平流、流函数、850—200hPa垂直切变以及不对称配置的演变与热带气旋移速突变有超前相关;概括出的一些判据可供业务实践参考。     

琼州海峡的一个三维泥沙扩散模式

通过建立一个三维陆架海数值模式来预报近海潮流和泥沙浓度的对流扩散,并应用于琼州海峡跨海工程的前期数值预测。预测结果表明,海区潮流的涨落、岸线形状、海底地形及源强位置与泥沙在近海的输运扩散关系密切,模拟情形基本合理,表明该模式适合应用于河口、近岸等涉海海洋工程海域的流场及泥沙扩散的三维数值预测,为相关的水动力环境要素和水质影响评价提供一定的参考价值。