自动确定图像二值化最佳阈值的新方法

在详细分析二值化处理原理及当前技术的前提下，综合考虑图像的各种实际情况，提出了自动确定图像二值化阈值的增强大津法和边缘检测阈值法。多次实验表明，根据这两种方法确定的阈值对图像进行二值化处理，不仅可有效地解决图像灰度随地特征变化的图像处理问题，同时对于同一信号源的图像也有相当理想的处理效果，该方法可进一步应用于图像分割等。     

局地自适应多级模式降水预报

近年来，我国对西北太平洋上的热带气旋的实时业务定位精度有了很大的提高，平均定位误差均在20－30km，美国在同一海区的定位误差也在这一精度水平上。值得注意的是，计算业务定位误差的标准是各国确定的所谓“最佳位置”，然而，该“最佳位置”并不一定能代表实况。事实上，我国和美国的“最佳位置”是有差别的，平均达54．4km，且存在明显的年际变化和地理分布特征。这意味着，我们可能过小地估计了业务定位误差。     

生态区评价研究的兴起与发展——以美国森林生态系统管理评价(FEMAT)研究为例

生态区评价是近年来出现在美国的一种新型区域生态系统管理方法的理论与实践科学研究,起始于美国总统森林会议(1993)后成立的森林生态系统管理评价组(FEMAT),目标是实现地区生态系统的科学管理.本文评介了生态区评价首项案例--美国西北太平洋沿岸区原始森林及其他各类森林经营管理方案的生态、经济、社会影响综合评价的科学与方法实践意义.指出FEMAT的生态区评价:1)迈出了生态区评价历史上坚实的第一步,实现了区域土地利用规划与生态系统管理方案从以行政疆域为准划分向以生态区域为准划定边界的转变;2)方案优化过程充分考虑区域生态、经济、社会的历史、现状与未来趋势等各方面,将科学、政策、管理融为一体,使之易于在实践中贯彻;3)促进了不同政府机构和利益团体间为实现资源开发与生态保育双重目标而共同协作.     

人工集水面临界产流降雨量确定实验研究

通过在中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所皋兰生态农业试验站1998-1999年的降雨-径流观测实验,利用直线回归模型确定包括自然集水面在内的9种人工集水面的临界产流降雨量值(降雨阀值)。结果表明:在不受前期降雨影响下,自然黄土坡面、清除杂草自然黄土坡面和粘土夯实集水面的临界产流降雨量分别为8.5mm,8.0mm和4.1mm。在受前期降雨影响下,其临界产流降雨量分别为6.0mm,5.0mm和1.9mm。塑料膜、油毡、沥青和混凝土处理集水面的产流过程受降雨量和降雨强度的影响小,平均状态下其临界产流降雨量为0.1～1.5mm。塑料膜、油毡、沥青、塑料+小砾石和塑料+大砾石集水面的临界产流降雨量分别为0.13mm,0.21mm,0.17mm,0.98mm和0.85mm。混凝土集水面在干燥情况下的临界产流降雨量为1.48mm,在不干燥情况下的临界产流降雨量为1.16mm。     

水下机动目标轨迹跟踪的自适应估计方法

研究了用ＧＰＳ测定基阵坐标，分析了水听器基阵所接收到的声脉冲信号的处理。通过模拟和实测数据的试算，证明了本文提出的模型及方法不但能处理多系统含有粗差的观测值，而且具有良好的跟踪处理机动目标的性能。     

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究

根据浙江省降雨的特点,将降雨分为台风降雨和非台风降雨,采用统计方法研究了区域性滑坡灾害与台风区和非台风区降雨量及降雨强度的相关性,通过相关性分析确定了有效降雨量模型;得到了浙江省区域性滑坡发生的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值,为实时时间预警提供了定量依据;将滑坡灾害的空间易发性与降雨量和降雨强度相结合确定了滑坡灾害的空间预警区划指标和等级;最后初步研究了滑坡发生的滞后时间。     

MIDAS-W: a workstation-based incoherent scatter radar data acquisition system

The Millstone Hill Incoherent Scatter Data Acquisition System (MIDAS) is based on an abstract model of an incoherent scatter radar. This model is implemented in a hierarchical software system, which serves to isolate hardware and low-level software implementation details from higher levels of the system. Inherent in this is the idea that implementation details can easily be changed in response to technological advances. MIDAS is an evolutionary system, and the MIDAS hardware has, in fact, evolved while the basic software model has remained unchanged. From the earliest days of MIDAS, it was realized that some functions implemented in specialized hardware might eventually be implemented by software in a general-purpose computer. MIDAS-W is the realization of this concept. The core component of MIDAS-W is a Sun Microsystems UltraSparc 10 workstation equipped with an Ultrarad 1280 PCI bus analog to digital (A/D) converter board. In the current implementation, a 2.25 MHz intermediate frequency (IF) is bandpass sampled at 1 s intervals and these samples are multicast over a high-speed Ethernet which serves as a raw data bus. A second workstation receives the samples, converts them to filtered, decimated, complex baseband samples and computes the lag-profile matrix of the decimated samples. Overall performance is approximately ten times better than the previous MIDAS system, which utilizes a custom digital filtering module and array processor based correlator. A major advantage of MIDAS-W is its flexibility. A portable, single-workstation data acquisition system can be implemented by moving the software receiver and correlator programs to the workstation with the A/D converter. When the data samples are multicast, additional data processing systems, for example for raw data recording, can be implemented simply by adding another workstation with suitable software to the high-speed network. Testing of new data processing software is also greatly simplified, because a workstation with the new software can be added to the network without impacting the production system. MIDAS-W has been operated in parallel with the existing MIDAS-1 system to verify that incoherent scatter measurements by the two systems agree. MIDAS-W has also been used in a high-bandwidth mode to collect data on the November, 1999, Leonid meteor shower.     

Gullying and erosion control at archaeological sites in Grand Canyon,Arizona

Gully erosion of cultural sites in Grand Canyon National Park is an urgent management problem that has intensified in recent decades, potentially related to the effects of Glen Canyon Dam. We studied 25 gullies at nine sites in Grand Canyon over the 2002 monsoon–erosion season to better understand the geomorphology of the gully erosion and the effectiveness of erosion‐control structures (ECS) installed by the park under the direction of the Zuni Conservation Program. Field results indicate that Hortonian overland flow leads to concentrated flow in gullies and erosion focused at knickpoints along channels as well as at gully heads. Though groundcover type, soil shear strength and permeability vary systemat‐ically across catchments, gradient and, to a lesser degree, contributing drainage area seem to be the first‐order controls on gully extent, location of new knickpoints, and ECS damage. The installed ECS do reduce erosion relative to reaches without them and initial data suggest woody checkdams are preferable to rock linings, but maintenance is essential because damaged structures can exacerbate erosion. Topographic data from intensive field surveys and detailed photogrammetry provide slope–contributing area data for gully heads that have a trend consistent with previous empirical and theoretical formulations from a variety of landscapes. The same scaling holds below gully heads for knickpoint and ECS topographic data, with threshold coefficients the lowest for gully heads, slightly higher for knickpoints, and notably higher for damaged ECS. These topographic thresholds were used with 10‐cm digital elevation models to create simple predictive models for gully extent and structure damage. The model predictions accounted for the observed gullies but there are also many false‐positives. Purely topographical models are probably inadequate at this scale and application, but models that also parameterize the variable soil properties across sites would be useful for predicting erosion problems and ECS failure. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.